Dynamic and tricky period with multiple swell sources

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 21st November)

Best Days: Protected southern corners later tomorrow and then similar through Friday and Saturday, every morning from Sunday

Recap

A building and initially average N/NE windswell through yesterday, improving in power and quality later, while today we've seen a peak in size with 4-5ft sets reported across north-east magnets with winds swinging offshore.

Today’s Forecaster Notes are brought to you by Rip Curl

This week and weekend (Nov 22 - 25)

The current NE swell event should be easing with a S'ly change this afternoon and a retreat of the NE winds generating today's swell, away from us.

Come tomorrow there isn't expected to be much size left with easing 2-3ft sets max across north-east swell magnets.

A new E/SE swell should be in the mix though, produce by a good fetch of strong and persistent SE winds around the southern tip of New Zealand's South Island.

This should provide additional 3-4ft sets out of the E/SE but winds look an issue.

A mid-latitude low drifting in from the west looks to bring S/SE winds for most of the day, tending S/SW later favouring protected spots.

We'll see the E/SE swell starting to ease through Friday but this will be replaced by a new E/SE-SE swell produced by a fetch of strong to gale-force E/SE winds feeding in on the bottom flank of the low.

Size wise it looks like we'll see surf continuing around 3-4ft in the morning, building later to 4-5ft off a S/SE fetch aimed into the sout-east corner of the state, along with S/SW winds.

Saturday looks to consist of mid-period S/SE swell from strong weakening S/SE winds in our swell window Friday evening and the day Saturday.

At this stage it looks like sets will come in at 4-5ft across south magnets along with S/SW winds again, but we'll have to review this one last time Friday.

Slowly easing levels of SE swell are due through Sunday and early next week with less than perfect but workable winds, best each morning.

Longer term we may see another mid-latitude storm producing a renewal in E/SE swell through the middle of the week, but more on this Friday.

Comments

stevenmt78@hotmail.com's picture
stevenmt78@hotmail.com's picture
stevenmt78@hotm... Friday, 23 Nov 2018 at 4:55pm

I’m confused about the days?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 23 Nov 2018 at 5:00pm

Update coming in 5.