Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 16th June)

Best Days: Thursday onwards

Recap

A temporary drop in swell yesterday morning before a good new but inconsistent SE groundswell filled in. This swell has held in a little stronger than expected this morning with 2-3ft waves at most spots and the odd 4ft set reported earlier.

This weekend and next week (June 17 - 23)

We should see our current SE groundswell starting to ease this afternoon, with smaller fading 2ft sets at magnets tomorrow, tiny into the afternoon.

Into Sunday the surf is expected to start tiny to flat, but a small spike of new S'ly groundswell is due later in the day.

This swell will likely originate from a polar fetch of severe-gale W'ly winds south-west of us today, rather than from the front passing under us tomorrow evening, which looks to be a little too zonal.

South magnets should increase to 3ft into the mid-late afternoon but winds now look as if they'll be dicey, swinging from the S/SW to SE.

Offshore NW tending W/NW winds will kick in Monday but the swell will be small and fading from 1-2ft max at swell magnets.

Our NE swell identified for later next week is still on the cards, but now it looks to be more from the E/NE, building through Thursday and Friday, peaking overnight.

This swell will be generated by a deepening Tasman Low which will initially be unfavourably aligned before drift east-southeast towards New Zealand while producing a broad fetch of strong to gale-force E/SE winds.

The low is then due to move slightly north of the North Island, continuing to aim better aligned but weaker E'ly winds through our swell window, before weakening Thursday evening.

We should see some initial E/NE groundswell spreading out and down to us Thursday, building to 3ft at open beaches ahead of a stronger increase in size Friday to the 3-4ft+ range.

The models are still shifting around a little regarding this swell so check back Monday for the latest on the timing and expected size. Have a great weekend!