Solid NE swell due late in the week
Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Guy Dixon (issued Monday 9th November)
Best Days: Friday at protected southern corners.
Recap:
Saturday morning saw great surf along eastern Tasmania with a open beaches offering sets in the 4ft range under offshore breezes. Winds swung around to the south in the afternoon, however protected spots remained on the pump, loving the northeasterly energy.
The swell faded throughout Sunday to the 2ft range, further today to the 1-2ft range under northerly breezes.
This week (Tuesday 10th - Friday 13th):
A southerly change is set to move up the coast overnight this evening whipping up short range southerly energy for the magnets on Tuesday. In terms of size, south facing beaches should build into the 2-3ft range, however the quality will be poor with only junky peaks accompanied by a gusty south/southeasterly flow.
A fresh southerly groundswell is likely to provide inconsistent options in the 2ft range for south facing beaches on Wednesday. Winds are likely to have eased by the afternoon, although blowing from the east/southeast. Conditions won’t be anything amazing, but we are hoping for an improvement throughout the afternoon as breezes drop.
A great looking northeasterly fetch looks to develop throughout Thursday as a deep trough over mainland Australia moves offshore and interacts with a strong Tasman ridge. Gusty local winds will also be blowing from the northeast, allowing open beaches to from the 2ft range to a peaky 4ft by dark.
This fetch looks to be at it’s strongest on Thursday evening with core winds of around 30-35kts which means the peak of the swell is likely to be masked by the cover of darkness. Nevertheless, Friday will continue to see good size off this system under more favourable winds.
A low pressure system is likely to develop offshore on Friday, however there is some model uncertainty on the exact position of this system. At this stage, it looks as though this low will sit off the coast of Tassie generating an element of easterly swell into the mix before driving a fresh/strong southerly breeze up the coast.
In this scenario, protected southern corners have the potential to see good options with a northeasterly swell fading from the 4ft range.
This weekend (Saturday 14th - Sunday 15th):
These gusty southerlies are set to whip up a short-range southerly swell for Saturday, providing peaky options of variable quality in the 3ft range at south facing beaches. Open beaches should also still have a small amount of northeasterly energy in the mix, fading from the 2-3ft range.
Breezes should’ve eased right back and gone variable for the morning session, tending onshore in the afternoon.