Eastern Tasmania Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 27th February)

Best Days: Tuesday morning, Friday, next weekend

Recap

Small and inconsistent but clean levels of NE swell through yesterday, while today the surf is back to a tiny 1-1.5ft under morning variable winds.

This weekend and next week (Feb 28 – Mar 6)

The weekend isn't looking any good at all for surf with a tiny and inconsistent E/NE groundswell tomorrow to 1ft or so. A small pulse of NE windswell from a fetch of NE winds off the Southern NSW coast may be seen Sunday morning but to no major size. A S'ly change will also move through during the day.

Sunday's S'ly change should see a burst of weak S/SW winds generated in our swell window producing a a late increase in windswell that is due to fade Monday from 1ft+ across south facing beaches.

Some better NE windswell is due into Tuesday though as a temporary but strong fetch of N/NE winds develop directly off our coast Monday afternoon and evening.

This should provide 2ft sets early across north-east facing beaches Tuesday morning as a W'ly change moves through.

Into the end of the week we'll see a couple of vigorous polar fronts pushing up and across us under the influence of a strong node of the Long Wave Trough pushing across us.

All the frontal activity will be initially too west in nature, but come Wednesday evening and Thursday, a broad polar front will push up favourably past our south-east corner, into the Tasman Sea.

This should see a fetch of SW gales generated in our southern swell window, followed by a stalling fetch of S/SE winds at the base of the front through Thursday evening and Friday.

What should result is a good S'ly groundswell for Thursday, building through the day to 3-4ft across south facing beaches by the afternoon before easing from a similar size Friday morning. Winds will be best Friday morning for these south swell magnets. A follow up S/SE groundswell is then on the cards for Saturday/Sunday but more on this Monday. Have a great weekend!