Central QLD Forecaster Notes by Steve Shearer (updated on Wed Feb 26th)

This week and next week (Feb26-Mar7)

Central QLD: Surf likely to get L to XL as TC Alfred approaches CQ coast

Heaps of surf ahead, potentially very sizey.

Pumping surf continues

High pressure is in the Tasman with three tropical cyclones currently on the map. TC Alfred is in the Coral Sea, currently about a 1000km NE of Mackay and slow moving, expected to slowly track southwards from today. TC Rae has sped off SE to the graveyard and TC Seru is located between Vanuatu and Fiji and moving S/SE. In this complex brew,  we’ll see multiple swell trains from the NE-E quadrant, although large swells may be confined to more northerly regions as models firm on a CQ coastal crossing for TC Alfred (still uncertainty over this track!) and the South Pacific cyclones track south-eastward, then eastwards as dissipating systems. 

Expect fun, pumping waves this week, leading into Sat.

Stronger surf likely Sun- subject to confirmation dependent on the track of TC Alfred. 

Next week’s surf outlook still depends on the eventual track of TC Alfred. Model consistency has improved somewhat, suggesting a CQ coastal crossing. Latest EC and ACCESS runs are suggesting a more southward position for TC Alfred early next week bringing large swells to SEQLD and NENSW.

GFS has the system moving straight in for a CQ crossing early next week (see below) with an increase in size and straight onshore E’ly winds expected. 

If we get the CQ crossing, very serious surf in the 8ft range or bigger is likely Mon into Tues.

Stay tuned. 

At minimum we’ll see more fun sized E/NE swell into next week as the remnants of TC Seru look to drift eastwards and maintain a firm trade fetch over the weekend. 

Let’s see how it looks on Fri.

Seeya then!