Central QLD Forecaster Notes by Steve Shearer (issued on Mon 27th Feb)

This weekend and next week (Feb27-Mar10)

Central QLD: Downgraded surf outlook as depressions race away to the SE

We’ve got a weak, troughy pattern in the Tasman Sea- with a stalled trough near the lower end of the Mid North Coast and a very active monsoon trough across Northern Australia and extending into the Coral Sea and near South Pacific. The troughy pattern will see a weakening trade flow in the Coral Sea this week and while all eyes are on the tropics it’s looking like a continuing tease with an expected tropical depression or TC moving quite quickly SE through the swell window with limited surf potential. Let’s drill down.

Weaker tradewinds should hold surf in the 1-1.5ft range through Tues-Thurs with light E’ly winds on hand. Best at exposed breaks on low tides.

A slight re-charge of the tradewinds SE of New Caledonia Wed/Thurs sees a small lift in surf heights Fri into the 1-2ft range with light winds.

TC or depression racing away to the SE = limited surf potential

Tropical developments have been downgraded as a tropical depression near Vanuatu this week, possibly followed by a second system, remain discrete systems and track SE rapidly through the swell window. We’ll monitor for any signs of slowing or stalling which would enhance swell production but at this stage it looks like they will be whisked off to the graveyard (behind New Zealand) without any major swell production.

That will see easing surf this weekend, dropping down into the 1ft range and holding there Mon with weak tradewinds.

Further ahead and we’ll see surf go tiny/flat from mid next week with weak pressure gradients in the Coral Sea and light winds.

We’ll flag those possibilities for now and check back Wed to see how it’s shaping up.

See ya then.