Central QLD Forecaster Notes by Steve Shearer (issued on Wed 1st Feb)

This week and next week (Feb6-Feb17)

Central QLD: Pumping cyclone swell now imminent

We’ve got a return to a  typical Summer synoptic pattern after a large, mid-latitude low cleared Tasmania on the weekend and quickly exited across the Tasman Sea. Weak high pressure has now moved into the lower Tasman, with light/mod onshore flow across the Eastern Seaboard- NE in temperate NSW, tending more SE in the sub-tropics. A convective cloud mass between the Solomon Islands and Vanuatu is expected to consolidate and deepen into a tropical cyclone by mid week, tracking back into the Coral Sea towards the tropical QLD coast before recurving and drifting Southwards through the Coral Sea and eventually towards the North Island. Solid swell from this system is expected across most of the Eastern Seaboard. 

Tiny peelers on low tide, much more size expected this week

All eyes will be to the North where a tropical cyclone is likely to be dominating the charts (see below). A precursor tradewind fetch through the Southern Coral and Northern Tasman seas will see small amounts of short period E/NE swell start to fill in Tues/Wed. No great size is expected, just a weak 2ft or so. We may see a rare NE-NNE swell start to filter down from the tropics as potential TC Freddie develops gales to severe gales across the NE quadrant as it drifts Westwards back into towards the QLD coast. These swells, when they occur are usually very flukey but models are in reasonable agreement on the fetch and the track and thus we can expect a rapid rise in swell through Thurs, up into the 3-4ft range.

By this stage, under current modelling TC Freddie is likely to be a large, potentially Cat 3 storm moving through the sub-tropical swell window on Fri. Gales and severe gales from the NE quadrant begin to extend to the southern and south-western quadrant with large swells beginning to make landfall. Expect size in the 4-5ft range with some 6ft sets at exposed breaks with Capricorn channel exposure.

Size then starts to ease over the weekend as the system moves SE, and passes out of the CQ swell window.

We should see surf to 2-3ft Sat, easing through the day with continuing SE winds, becoming light and variable Sun with leftovers to 1ft.

Into next week and no size is expected as weak pressure gradients fill the Coral Se and surf retreats back to tiny levels.

Check back Wed for the latest.