Central QLD Forecaster Notes by Steve Shearer (issued on Mon 2nd Jan)

This week and next week (Jan2-Jan13)

Central QLD: Last chance for fun waves before this event finally tapers off

A tropical low which hived off the monsoon trough and which has been providing days of chunky E swell to sub-tropical regions is now, finally, on the move. Compared to model runs the system has been much more slow moving than f/cast- which is maintaining plenty of strong E swell across our sub-tropical region. Current ASCAT (satellite windspeed) passes show a board fetch of strong E’ly winds now tracking SSW-SW back into the Tasman from a position half-way between New Caledonia and the North Island, generating solid E’ly swells which will radiate from the sub-tropics down into the temperate f/cast regions.

The CQ coast will see a couple more days of E/SE swell from this source with tomorrow seeing 1-2ft surf from the E/SE and mod SE winds.

By Wed we’ll see only leftovers in the 1ft range with easing E’ly winds and surf only breaking at exposed locations on the bottom of the tide.

We’ll then see a couple of days of tiny/flat surf through Thurs/Fri. 

Next possible surf is this weekend a a tropical low is expected to drift down from the Far North QLD coast. We should see an infeed of E/NE winds later Fri, leading to a fast rising spike in E swell Sat up into the 3-4ft range.

Fast moving low brings spike of swell Sat

Under current modelling the system then moves away rapidly during Sun with size quickly dropping right down to 1ft during the day.

Longer term and next week looks much quieter on the surf front.

The low reforms near the North Island but looks to dip quickly behind it, with limited surf potential for CQ.

Check back Wed and we’ll see how it’s shaping up.