Central QLD Forecaster Notes by Steve Shearer (issued on Wed 30th Mar)

This weekend and next week (Mar30-Apr 8)

Central QLD: Tiny/flat surf this weekend as action occurs in Tasman Sea, better outlook next week

Tiny just rideable surf

The complex brew of La Niña mediated weather is as follows: a hybrid sub-tropical low located just off the coast of Ballina is moving slowly northwards while a cold front pushes into the Tasman Sea, extending along the southern coast of NSW. A trough of low pressure associated with the current sub-tropical low deepens rapidly through tomorrow in response to the influx of cold air, forming a storm force low pressure system off the NSW Central Coast overnight Thursday into Friday.

All this is too far south and behind the curve of the QLD Coast and Fraser Island to produce any surf for the CQ region, so we’ll see the tiny surf that was on offer today contract back to near flatness for the rest of the week. 

Tiny surf then extends through the Weekend and into the start of next week.

Things improve by mid next week.

Strong high and potential cyclone in Coral Sea, have reasonable surf potential for CQ

High pressure then moves E of Tasmania later next week, with SSE’ly winds likely to develop through Tues/Wed and a chance we’ll see SE trade swell start to develop.

Longer term and as we mentioned on Mon, we’ll be looking to the North as a potential depression or cyclone tracks down through the Coral Sea. This event is starting to shape up. Although GFS has a much better outlook with the system well inside New Caledonia and a supporting ridge generating a broad fetch of E’ly winds through the Southern Coral Sea into the Northern Tasman. That offers up good potential for a slow building E swell by later next week.

EC has more limited surf potential with the system tracking SE more quickly, obliquely to the swell window. There’s still good potential for a SE fetch through the Northern Tasman though, so odds are good we’ll see an increasing surf next weekend. 

Check back Fri for a latest update before the weekend.