Central QLD Forecaster Notes by Steve Shearer (issued on Mon 24 Jan)

This week and next (Jan24– Feb4)

Central QLD:  Mostly tiny/flat this week with a slight increase for the weekend and a bigger pulse early next week for exposed breaks.

Our Summer blocking looks similar to how we left it on Friday. Weak high pressure now sits East of Tasmania, smearing out across the lower Tasman towards New Zealand. With weak pressure gradients now established through the Coral Sea we are looking at a period of tiny/flat surf through the next few days.

Few ankle snappers to start the week

A new high pressure ridge builds Thursday and this will lift wave heights a notch into the just rideable category at exposed breaks as SE winds build in the Southern Coral Sea. Keep expectations low though.

The tradewind flow through the Central/Southern Coral Sea gets a boost later this week and into the weekend as a tropical low forms between Vanuatu and New Caledonia. The fetch is mostly concentrated on the Eastern Edge of the Coral Sea so the increase is only modest. Up a notch into the 1-1.5ft range Sat with slightly bigger sets Sun, in the 2ft range. Winds will be mod SE to E/SE.

The  tropical low, potentially another cyclone, forms between Vanuatu and New Caledonia later this week into the weekend, emerging from behind Grand Terre and dropping into the South Pacific slot Sunday, with a supporting fetch of E’ly winds having developed between New Cal and the North Island on the weekend.

From this source we should see wave heights hold in the 1-2ft range Mon and boost into the 2ft range Tues at exposed breaks.

As the low drops South the high pressure ridge will break down, leading to light N’ly winds on Tuesday.

Longer term and looks like a brief flat spell before more tropical developments early Feb, with long range models teasing more cyclonic development in the Coral Sea.

Stay tuned for a fresh update Wed.