Central QLD Forecaster Notes by Steve Shearer (issued on Mon 27 Dec)

This week and next (Dec 27 – Jan7)

Central QLD: Looking good for New Years weekend as tropical low or cyclone moves into Coral Sea with fun waves developing mid-week.

Today has brought a pattern change after a troughy, doldrums period before Christmas. A strong 1033hPa high is located well to the south of the Bight, with a ridge now surging up the East Coast. In the tropics the Monsoon trough is now active, with good odds of cylogenesis occurring before the New Year and plenty of surf ahead. Troughs also lie across the North of the country, extending southwards along the eastern interior and in the Coral Sea down to the Northern Tasman. It’s a hot, moist mess at the moment with a highly fluid synoptic environment. 

The high pressure surge sees SE winds developing into the 20-25 knot range north of Fraser into the Capricorn channel during Wed, strengthening during the day. That should see short period SE/ESE windswell building into the 2ft range along the Burnett to Gladstone stretch, developing further Thurs along the CQ coastline north to Mackay. 

Expect fun 2ft surf through Thurs and Fri, with 20-25knot SE winds. 

The New Years weekend still has juicier prospects. Models are struggling to resolve a potential tropical cyclone crossing Cape York Peninsula and entering the Coral Sea, either as a low, or a reformed TC. 

One major model has the system hugging the coast as it tracks S, bringing a solid 3-4ft cyclone swell, starting late Fri and peaking Sat in the Mackay region, building later Sat in the Gladstone to Bundaberg coast, in the 4-5ft range. 

Size holds Sun morning, with potential for offshore winds as the low/TC tracks south towards Fraser. Size then eases rapidly Sun PM. 

GFS model suggests not just a low tracking across from Cape York Peninsula, but a series of lows forming along the monsoon trough line, extending out to New Caledonia (see below). 

The sees a long fetch of SE/ESE winds develop through the Coral Sea and Northern Tasman, with a chance of the low near New Caledonia retrograding back towards the East Coast in a SW direction. There’s also a chance of a retrograding low forming near the North Island.

Under this scenario CQ sees a smaller swell in the 2-3ft range favouring the Burnett coast, with several days of fun waves extending over the New Years weekend and constant, slowly easing SE winds.

Best to pencil in some surf time over the next week and over New Years, because there will be waves.

Check back Wed for the latest update.