We’ve got a developing low off the southern NSW coast on Thursday that’ll dictate our surf, wind and weather for the following couple of days.
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This developing trough looks like it will finally break the recent pattern of persistent northerly winds across the East Coast.
No change to the weekend forecast - northerlies will generally ruin the surf at most locations.
It’s a broken record for the short term outlook - small surf and northerly winds. Is there any point in embellishing it further?
If model guidance is to be believed (and it’s hard to disagree right now) the next southerly change may not push through until next Wednesday afternoon on the Mid North Coast (more than nine days away), and sometime next Thursday morning in SE Qld.
No major changes to the weekend forecast, just a slight downgrade in the size department across SE Qld.
A building ridge in the wake of the change will then maintain fresh SE winds across the region on Friday.
Tuesday looks like being a repeat performance of Saturday in the south.
Let’s divide the region into two for the weekend. South of Coffs Harbour, and north Coffs Harbour.
The only saving grace is Saturday morning - and only in the Lower Mid North Coast - where a weak, shallow and ultimately dissipating trough is likely to arrest the northerly flow in that next of the woods through the morning.