WSL Finals Forecast

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)
Swellnet Dispatch

With the starting dates between the Tahiti Pro and the WSL Finals event falling about a month apart, it seems we've quickly arrived at the countdown to the latter.

This is mainly a result of the poor conditions seen for the majority of the Tahiti waiting period, with the contest running in the last days of the window.

Looking ahead, the waiting period for the Trestles WSL Finals kicks off next Thursday, which is the 8th September, and running through until Friday the 16th - a nine-day waiting period.

Of the nine days, the organisers are looking for one standout day in this window, with it expected to be run and won all in the same drama-filled day.

While just over a week away, we can get a pretty clear idea on what's in store for the waiting period owing to the origin of the best swells for Trestles. They being storms in the South Pacific and Southern Ocean, a huge oceanic area spanning from south-east of New Zealand through to the south-west of Chile.

Trestles lies on the southern Californian coastline and is a swell magnet for anything out of the south, with long-period groundswells focussing best onto the triangular reef.

The travel time for storms down in the Southern Ocean is over a week so we've already got a couple of swells in the water for the opening day of the waiting period.

The Southern Ocean is currently awash with swell-generating systems with plenty of energy to choose from during the waiting period, however two stand out the most.

The first is a low that's currently well south of Tahiti (see image below) which should produce a decent southerly groundswell for the second day of the waiting period, that being Friday the 9th. Sets to an inconsistent 3-4 feet are due, which would make for a decent contest day. Perhaps the WSL will pull the trigger on this day, though they'll also be watching an arguably better south-southwest groundswell due to arrive the following week.

The source of this swell will be right on the edge of Trestles swell window, that being a strong polar frontal progression developing south of New Zealand this weekend (see image below).

The frontal progression will actually be a series of strong fronts embedded around a broader, slow moving polar low with various fetches of severe-gale to at times storm-force west-southwest winds due to be generated south-east of New Zealand into early next week.

Even better, the fetch of storm-force winds are expected to develop on top of an already active sea state, and the slow movement of the whole progression should extend the peak of the swell, resulting in a number of days of moderate-sized, long-period southwest groundswell. As is almost always the case for these long-range swells, inconsistency can be a problem, and this one will be no different.

At the peak of the swell, waves up to 3-5 feet are expected and local winds look favourable in the morning, offshore ahead of north-west sea breeze, but we're a little to far out to be confident on this.

What we can be fairly certain of at this point is that there will be waves for the waiting period, though they won't be overly large. Quite possibly right in the sweet spot for Trestles.

We'll continue to provide running updates below as the models start to resolve each swell producing storm more accurately over the coming days.

Comments

Swany's picture
Swany's picture
Swany Thursday, 1 Sep 2022 at 1:28pm

C’mon Ethan and Jack!!!

sean killen's picture
sean killen's picture
sean killen Thursday, 1 Sep 2022 at 2:19pm

I struggle to enjoy the format.. but love to see jack or Ethan win it .. and Steph !!!!!

Standingleft's picture
Standingleft's picture
Standingleft Thursday, 1 Sep 2022 at 5:44pm

Ethan's streamlined shredding will be tough to beat in overhead Trestles but Jack might utilise the left best and take the win. Italo is super dangerous though. They've all beaten Fil this season, he's vulnerable to losing a trophy he should've already won, it seems wrong and should be settled at Pipe imo but then again Jack was very nearly in the yellow jersey so it's ok by me if he pinches it at the post. Fil wouldn't have a chance against him in a solid Pipe final.
Yes, I want to watch a grown man cry

Paul McD's picture
Paul McD's picture
Paul McD Thursday, 1 Sep 2022 at 6:18pm

Steph firming as a favourite with that forecast. And little flip. Shame they can't run it down at Puerto Escondido. Ticks all the boxes...American continent, same swells as Trestles but bigger consistently, offshore every morning, way more size and power to take the advantage away from small wave specialists and lefts and rights. And much better viewing. 8ft plus Puerto V 3ft Trestles shouldn't even be a debate and imagine if it was seriously bombing like last week.

memlasurf's picture
memlasurf's picture
memlasurf Friday, 2 Sep 2022 at 1:21pm

Not big enough?!? Geez I wouldn't want to caught inside there and 7'5" undergunned wonder what the pros would ride in contest out here.

Paul McD's picture
Paul McD's picture
Paul McD Friday, 2 Sep 2022 at 2:43pm

I had to laugh at the 'not big enough' comment too Memla. There was me thinking it was giant. haha.

Seaweed's picture
Seaweed's picture
Seaweed Thursday, 15 Sep 2022 at 2:17pm

I liked the way it showed the drops then complete rides, a lot of clips could learn a lesson from that editor.

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone Thursday, 1 Sep 2022 at 6:45pm

Does the weekend come into play for heads on the beach?

Tabby10's picture
Tabby10's picture
Tabby10 Thursday, 1 Sep 2022 at 9:42pm

More like e-bikes at the beach

Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean Friday, 2 Sep 2022 at 4:13pm

Well I've been on maui/ Oahu for 2 weeks and its been pretty dam slow from the south...
There was a short period north swell. A little over a week ago.
The biggest thing to watch out for regarding south swells is swell decay from the trades coming out of the nw.
The stronger the trades the smaller & weaker the swell.

Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean Friday, 2 Sep 2022 at 4:16pm

Pretty sure the last year they ran off a hurricane swell off of Baja. Way more push, way more consistent.....

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Sunday, 4 Sep 2022 at 6:55am

Nah Lanky, they had a bigger, better aligned polar storm..

https://www.swellnet.com/news/form-guide/2021/09/07/rip-curl-wsl-finals-...

Great White Snark's picture
Great White Snark's picture
Great White Snark Monday, 5 Sep 2022 at 9:53am

Whats 3-5 ft Australian?

Waist to shoulder high?

eel's picture
eel's picture
eel Monday, 5 Sep 2022 at 10:11am

3-5 Australian would be head high to well overhead (but not quite double overhead).

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Monday, 5 Sep 2022 at 11:24am

Eel nailed it. The low is due to be a touch weaker and broken up now so it looks to be an inconsistent 3ft (head-high) with the rare bigger one.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Monday, 5 Sep 2022 at 12:27pm

Looks like we've got a better, more S'ly aimed long-period groundswell for next weekend 17/18th which looks the best of the bunch.

It'll be made to the south-east of New Zealand and south of Tahiti later this week. Early estimates are in the 4ft range.

Lachlan22's picture
Lachlan22's picture
Lachlan22 Monday, 5 Sep 2022 at 4:43pm

Doesn’t the waiting period end on the 16th? That swell will get there too late then. Do you still reckon they will run on early sat morning Aus time?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Monday, 5 Sep 2022 at 4:44pm

Agh, you're right I thought it went longer. Should have checked my dates. Won't be there in time.

mikehunt207's picture
mikehunt207's picture
mikehunt207 Monday, 5 Sep 2022 at 12:50pm

The fabled "New Zealand Swell" . Southern Cal surfers refer to long range (usually the best) swells as New Zealand swells ,long distance travelled summertime south swells (never really got it myself as they usually form west or south of Aus , opposed to the hurricane related south swells more localised from off Baja or southern Mex

DudeSweetDudeSweet's picture
DudeSweetDudeSweet's picture
DudeSweetDudeSweet Monday, 5 Sep 2022 at 1:07pm

So head high dogshit it is then?

You can’t script this!

Solitude's picture
Solitude's picture
Solitude Monday, 5 Sep 2022 at 1:42pm

small surf for finals make me think that it could be controversial. Hope if it's shite, it knocks the concept on the head

crg's picture
crg's picture
crg Monday, 5 Sep 2022 at 8:11pm

I think the venue for the final to decide a world champion should have a level playing field. During the year a balance of waves with barrels, turns, airs across different sizes to decide the top 5 is an okay concept, however Trestles is distinctly skewed to advantage a certain type of surfer/surfing. If they want to persist with the final 5 single day concept, it needs to be at a wave which accommodates more than just small wave turns and airs.

Remigogo's picture
Remigogo's picture
Remigogo Monday, 5 Sep 2022 at 8:17pm

Snapper or Jbay....hmmmn.

Swany's picture
Swany's picture
Swany Monday, 5 Sep 2022 at 9:13pm

Totally. It has to be tropical reef set up! And also somewhere that doesn’t go chops at 11am. Having wind cut up the gig shouldn’t be a worry with 5 people left surely. Plenty to chose from.

Danilo2's picture
Danilo2's picture
Danilo2 Tuesday, 6 Sep 2022 at 9:12am

Of all of the stops on tour I'd say trestles is the one that provides the most level playing field!!! Any surfer on tour can do well at trestles!!! It's not super small to give advantage to grovellers and not big to give advantage to heavy surf surfers!!! It goes both sides so no real advantage to goofies or regulars!!! And it provides a better playing field for the women as well to make a fair for everyone one day contest!!! And in 2022 if you're on tour and can't do airs maybe you shouldn't be on tour!!! Sick of the whining about airs just coz some surfers can't do them!!! I see all the critics going on and on about how Toledo has to work on his heavy barreling wave game, guess what? Same goes to the surfers that can't throw a full rotation over a head high ramp!!! Work on it and stop crying!!! They are part of the sport now, get over it or go watch cricket!!! The whingers don't want a fair equal tour, they just want a tour that let's the "establishment" be the establishment again!!! Go Toledoooo!!!

crg's picture
crg's picture
crg Tuesday, 6 Sep 2022 at 9:21am

I would say that a wave that closes out at 4-6ft and doesn't barrel is a small wave venue. Everyone in the top 5 can do airs - some better than others.
Everyone in the top 5 can barrel ride - some better than others.
Everyone in the top 5 can ride bigger waves - some better than others.
Everyone in the top 5 can go left and right - some better than others.
Trestles as a wave explores only two of these variables.
It advantages strengths for specific surfers on the day - which isn't appropriate to crown a world champ.

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet Tuesday, 6 Sep 2022 at 9:24am

Who cares about the surfers, won't someone think of the viewers?!

Trestles is as boring as a box set of Friends.

crg's picture
crg's picture
crg Tuesday, 6 Sep 2022 at 9:27am

I think that's it Stu...Trestles is slap bang in the middle of Cali, prime time viewing and the most convenient and cost effective option for the Woz. No consideration to the viewers or the integrity of a surfing world champ.

DudeSweetDudeSweet's picture
DudeSweetDudeSweet's picture
DudeSweetDudeSweet Tuesday, 6 Sep 2022 at 12:46pm

Friends is epic.

Friends era Jennifer Anniston is top five women of all time. ( post nose job. One of the only plastic surgeries of which I’ve ever approved.)

Oh Rachael.

Joey doesn’t share food!

Paul McD's picture
Paul McD's picture
Paul McD Tuesday, 6 Sep 2022 at 6:10pm

Yep. You're correct. Can't do airs, don't wanna do airs, don't care if i never see another air again.
Maybe they should have a separate tour for airs? Oh they did. It failed...
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

rj-davey's picture
rj-davey's picture
rj-davey Tuesday, 6 Sep 2022 at 9:16am

A noble object but ultimately impossible I reckon. Lefts or rights, point breaks or beachies, sand or reef, barrels or walls, large or small, short slabs or long runners, warm or cold water, developed or basic locale, close to home or abroad, long or short period swells, offshore or conducive to airs. Everyone will have their preferred combination and no break in the world can accommodate each iteraton.

I've never surfed trestles, but maybe the appeal is its a wave we the punters can mostly all relate to. But to get your ticket to the dance you have to perform in some of everything in between.

JamesFerguson's picture
JamesFerguson's picture
JamesFerguson Tuesday, 6 Sep 2022 at 8:18am

Looks like the best conditions will be Sunday morning our time

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Tuesday, 6 Sep 2022 at 9:26am

Looks like Hurricane Kay is expected to through in a curve-ball re winds and localised S/SW swell.

Update to come.

mpeachy's picture
mpeachy's picture
mpeachy Tuesday, 6 Sep 2022 at 9:53am

The current forecast is looking like solid swell and reasonable winds on Saturday. Presumably it being a hurricane, this will probably change by Saturday?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Tuesday, 6 Sep 2022 at 10:09am

Too hard to be specific as the models diverge with EC being more favourable than GFS. Gonna be a super tricky one to watch.

mpeachy's picture
mpeachy's picture
mpeachy Tuesday, 6 Sep 2022 at 10:11am

Does Trestles max out at any point? Or is there a possibility that we could actually see the finals take place in waves of (a little bit of) consequence?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Tuesday, 6 Sep 2022 at 10:28am

At this stage this Hurricane doesn't look to generate much in the way of size or power. More so a weaker, close-spaced swell favouring the right over the left one would imagine. More straight on and sectiony.

simba's picture
simba's picture
simba Tuesday, 6 Sep 2022 at 11:37am

and winds ?

DudeSweetDudeSweet's picture
DudeSweetDudeSweet's picture
DudeSweetDudeSweet Tuesday, 6 Sep 2022 at 4:16pm

Recent Comparison

Robbo doesn’t look as outgunned in the weak waves to the degree I thought he would. Though we all know that a Toledo has quite a bit left in the tank than shown in this clip.

Ewing looks a bit slow in the above clip. Showing more spark in this clip from a year ago. This is the Ewing you want turning up on finals day

Paul McD's picture
Paul McD's picture
Paul McD Tuesday, 6 Sep 2022 at 6:08pm

Move it to Puerto ffs. Trestles is a bore and is tailor made for Flip to win.
Yes, Puerto will be blown out by 11am..but..Not sure why they can't have a 2 day final as it was only last year that they built up the grand finale, the BIG DAY only for us all to get up at 12am to a bank of fog that never moved.....so we were told to come back tomorrow. No questions asked. Just how it is. Puerto over 2 days. 10-12foot plus thumping, heaving, bucking barrels. Then we'll see who the best surfer in the world is.

groundswell's picture
groundswell's picture
groundswell Tuesday, 6 Sep 2022 at 7:17pm

Paul McD said-
"Puerto over 2 days. 10-12foot plus thumping, heaving, bucking barrels. Then we'll see who the best surfer in the world is."
Jack or Ethan not Filipe. Dream tour finishing in lowers slop is not a dream tour.

It's like going back to 80's Manly comps and Huntington beach comps.Slop.
Although they both get good beachies and banks, but all contests ive seen of those two beachies are slop.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Tuesday, 6 Sep 2022 at 6:41pm

2 days out and no forecast, no calls at all from WSL.

Remigogo's picture
Remigogo's picture
Remigogo Tuesday, 6 Sep 2022 at 10:42pm

May be all hands on deck sand bagging... rather than a couple of crew on a boat sand dredging... I don't know. Sorry I can't help.