Quiksilver Pro Pre-event Forecast
We're less than a week away from the start of the Quiksilver Pro, and the usual carpark banter revolving around incoming swells has turned to the state of the sand (or lack thereof) at Snapper Rocks. Recent storm swells have created a hole running down the first section of the Superbank, and while it's still surfable, the question of quality is up for debate.
Sand aside, what we can be certain about is that the contest organisers will have plenty of swell to pick the eyes out of, which we alluded to in February 14th's article 'Last Chance for a Tropical Blast'.
At present moderate levels of easterly trade-swell are building across the Queensland coast thanks to a broad and stationary easterly ridge extending through the Tasman Sea, all the way over the top of New Zealand. The trade-swell should peak tomorrow at 3-5ft before easing slightly into the end of the week, only to be replaced by a stronger but less consistent east-southeast groundswell for Saturday - day one of the waiting period.
This groundswell will be generated tomorrow, north of New Zealand as a small tropical surface depression deepens into a tropical low and squeezes the easterly ridge. A fetch of easterly gales will be produced on top of an already active sea state setting in motion a strong but inconsistent groundswell. The swell should fill in Saturday and peak during the afternoon at an inconsistent 4-5ft+ at open beaches, 3-5ft along the Superbank with 3-4ft sets at Kirra.
A drop in size is then due into Sunday from 3-4ft at Snapper and 3ft at Kirra, only to be replaced by a building SE windswell. The SE windswell should keep wave heights up around 2-3ft at Snapper with 2ft+ waves down at Kirra into Sunday afternoon and Monday morning. A general south-southeast breeze should create clean conditions from Saturday through until at least the middle of the week.
The longer term is more than active with another strong easterly ridge forecast to develop through the Northern Tasman Sea into next week. This should result in renewed easterly trade-swell energy through the second half of next week, with larger amounts of swell possible into the following weekend as a couple of tropical depressions form in the Coral Sea. While one of these could take the form of a tropical cyclone, it's unlikely to directly generate swell for the Gold Coast, but instead assist in the formation of a larger overall easterly trade-swell event.
We'll provide updates over the coming days through the comments section below and additional articles, so keep an eye on Swellnet for further information leading up to the Quiksilver Pro. Saturday: Inconsistent E/SE groundswell building to 3-5ft at Snapper and 3-4ft at Kirra during the day. Moderate S'ly winds, freshening from the SE during the day. Sunday: Easing E/SE groundswell from an inconsistent 3-4ft at Snapper and 3ft at Kirra. Building SE windswell during the day. Fresh to strong S/SE winds. Monday: SE windswell to 2-3ft at Snapper and 2ft+ at Kirra (bigger at D'bah). Fresh and gusty S/SE winds. Tuesday: SE windswell to 2-3ft at Snapper and 2ft+ at Kirra (bigger at D'bah). Fresh and gusty S/SE winds.
Comments
With a forecast of Kirra wave heights in the above article, do I detect some inside knowledge that SN believe the event may be relocated to Kirra if the sand at Snapper is no good?
Yep.
if it was relocated would we still get a live webcast of the comp ?
Yes indeed Udo. They would never move the competition to a site where they couldn't get a live webcast out to the world.
What's the go with Dbah? Can they move there? Is it a last resort?
They'll move it to wherever the best waves are in the Cooly region, as long as it can be webcast (and yes, D'Bah is a fine option).
Was talk of Burleigh.
Update: The winds and swell aren't looking as good on Saturday anymore with the southerly change stalling in the Hunter region. Still we may see morning SE winds ahead of a freshening E/SE breeze, while the groundswell has been downgraded to 3-4ft at exposed spots and 2-3ft at Snapper for late in the a'noon and early Sunday.
The MJO has stalled & is intensifying!
And the GFS MJO forecast has it doing a docie doe in the Western Pacific/Coral Sea.
Latest MSLP charts have a tropical cyclone heading E/SE, which isn't great for SE Qld, but should still get some decent swell from the squeeze between the Tasman high. Just need the local winds to play ball at Snapper now!!!!
hahahahaha Don. Frothing. Chomping at the bit to watch the comp.