Last Chance for a Tropical Blast

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)
Swellnet Analysis

Listen up East Coast surfers, this is your last chance...

You've only got one more shot at getting stuck into some elusive cyclone swell before summer comes to a close. And if predictions ring true, it'll all be contained within the coming three weeks.

For Queensland and New South Wales surfers, the final weeks of summer will see one final burst of tropical activity moving across the country as the Madden Julian Osciallation (MJO) approaches from the Indian Ocean.

The MJO is a 'wave' of tropical activity that propagates eastward around the globe. It is simply a large area of low pressure and enhanced rainfall that moves around tropical latitudes on time scales of 30-60 days. We last saw the MJO passing through late December with it lingering until mid January, setting off a series of tropical depressions around the Australian region, namely TC Narelle off WA, TC Evan south of Fiji, TC Freda near Vanuatu and then finally TC Oswald down the East Coast.

Since then the MJO has raced around the globe, with it now moving through the Indian Ocean and forecast to enter the Australian region next week. Current forecasts have the MJO being a touch weaker than its last passing but the presence of this broad area of instability should in turn result in increased tropical activity and an increased chance of tropical cyclone formation.

The first signs of the MJO entering the Australian region may be seen in the form of an extra-tropical low developing through the Tasman Sea mid next week, but it's worth keeping a close eye on the weather charts beyond this as sea surface temperatures are primed for tropical cyclone formation off both the Western Australian and Queensland coast. This bodes well for the Quiksilver Pro at Snapper Rocks with the first day of the waiting period falling on the 2nd of March.

Once the MJO continues on its eastward track away from our region into March, this will signal the tail end of the tropical season; a result of the MJO shifting further north and having less of an impact on the Australian region during its next visit. Our attention from here on in will shift away from tropical storms, towards other swell generating weather systems such as East Coast Lows and Southern Ocean frontal progressions.

Keep an eye on the Western Australian and East Coast forecasts over the coming few weeks for regular updates on this last burst of tropical activity for the season. //CRAIG BROKENSHA

Comments

braithy's picture
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braithy Thursday, 14 Feb 2013 at 8:11pm

Hey Craig, is it possible for a cyclone to form without the MJO?

the-bower's picture
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the-bower Thursday, 14 Feb 2013 at 8:50pm

Hey Craig, Cool meeting you int eh surf the other arvo at The Bower. Hope to see you other there again soon. Cheers Kel

Craig's picture
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Craig Thursday, 14 Feb 2013 at 9:04pm

Hi Braithy, it is definitely still possible for cyclones to form during the inactive phase of the MJO but the environmental factors are against any major intensification.

Ie. strong upper atmosphere winds (that are depressed when an active phase of the MJO moves through) would tear apart the structure of any cyclone before it reached any major strength, among other factors.

What the MJO does is provide the ideal conditions for cyclone formation and further intensification in the form of strong convection, weaker winds in the upper atmosphere and continued instability as whole.

And same to you Kel, will definitely see you around in the near future!

braithy's picture
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braithy Friday, 15 Feb 2013 at 9:43am

Ah Cheers Craig.

My loose -- and possibly distorted -- memory of Cyclone Sose in 2001 was it wound it's way down our swell window from Vanuatu out of the MJO?

Do you remember that storm? Mick Fanning ripping up 12-foot Lennox is still burned into my memory.

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Friday, 15 Feb 2013 at 10:21am

Sorry Braithy, but you've got the Sose swell confused with the July 2001 swell.

Sose was a one day wonder and Fanning did not surf Lennox, which was a tad too square but rideable in the 12-15ft range.
Currumbin Alley was the Spot on that day with tow teams surfing 12ft+ perfection.

It was during the July swell that Fanning put on the ground-breaking display at the Ox.

braithy's picture
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braithy Friday, 15 Feb 2013 at 1:30pm

Yeah, it doesn't surprise me I got swells confused.

But I am surprised Sose was a one day deal. My recollection was 2-3 days of 10-foot plus hawaiian-type long interval perfection.

But that was probably the july swell? Was that the famous weather bomb swell, the July one?

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Friday, 15 Feb 2013 at 2:15pm

Nah, the weather bomb swell of June 2003 was another one.

3pm and Coolangatta was like night-time. Street lights on, eerie.

And 6-8ft backless grinders down the end section of the Superbank.

The July 2001 swell was a tropical system that drifted down from the South Pacific Convergence Zone before getting blocked by a large semi-stationary high. That enabled a long, broad fetch of E'ly gales to develop in the New Cal/North Island corridor. The system then retrograded, effectively super-charging the existing fetch as it increased wind speeds on the existing sea state.

Haven't seen anything like it since.

stunet's picture
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stunet Friday, 15 Feb 2013 at 2:24pm

'Weather Bomb'. Wasn't that a funny little buzzword that the media dined out on for, oh, about two weeks, and then we never heard it again.

Bit like 'sexing up the intelligence' apropos Iraq.

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Friday, 15 Feb 2013 at 2:29pm

Thats the one.

It really was just a bog standard ECL but for some reason it got tagged as a deadly weapon.

Anyhow, I remember driving a V8 Fairlane through flood waters before surfing the Supery all arvo.

Won't forget the backless, bottomless death pits grinding for ever down the ruler-edged superbank either.

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stunet Friday, 15 Feb 2013 at 2:32pm

Are you sexing up the intelligence, Steve?

braithy's picture
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braithy Friday, 15 Feb 2013 at 3:48pm

Swellnet should make a commitment to the people to bring back the term "weather bomb". You know, just dropping subtle use here and there?

... and by swellnet, I mean Stu. And by subtle use, I mean every paragraph you write from here forthwith.

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z-man Saturday, 16 Feb 2013 at 9:05pm

@ Stu - what are the chances of Snapper being EPIC for the connest?

Did you see the recent fotos of Slater, et al, warming up @ the 'Queen of the Coast' - surfline.com ?

donweather's picture
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donweather Sunday, 17 Feb 2013 at 2:42pm

Gee, Craig, big call about saying this is our last chance for tropical swell. Cyclone season is far from over IMO. Still got at least another 6-8 weeks. Plenty of time for the MJO to do another lap.

Zman.....Snapper is gonna have to do a miracle recovery to be EPIC for the contest....swell or no swell, the sand is in a bad way out at Snapper at the moment and the low pressure system set to form off the coast early-mid next week won't help the situation much either....although as the low tracks south and the swell direction trends more S/SE, that could definitely help push some sand around there.

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Sunday, 17 Feb 2013 at 7:01pm

Agreed Don.

PLenty of swells of tropical origin right through to July. Calling it over after the MJO passage in March is way premature.

Needless to say July2001 springs to mind.

yorkessurfer's picture
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yorkessurfer Sunday, 17 Feb 2013 at 9:05pm

I thought Craig was saying last chance before summer was over. March is usually a great month for tropical sourced swell. In fact I'm doing a road trip end of next week up the east coast. Hope this next system does something good!

Craig's picture
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Craig Sunday, 17 Feb 2013 at 9:37pm

Yeah, this was more about saying it's the last chance to get amongst some cyclone swell as chances are when the MJO rounds next time it will play less of an effect on us due to it being positioned further north.

That's not saying that it's not possible to get a late season cyclone, but we'll be shifting our focus more towards those extra-tropical treats detailed above, East Coast Lows, Tasman Lows and Southern Ocean frontal progressions.

P.s. this system that's now forecast to move down the East Coast is quite a beast, been a pretty good start to the year so far down here!

donweather's picture
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donweather Monday, 18 Feb 2013 at 7:46am

"P.s. this system that's now forecast to move down the East Coast is quite a beast, been a pretty good start to the year so far down here!"

So you leaning towards GFS then Craig? EC still has this low pressure system stalled off SE Qld for sometime, and weakening after Wed before being rapidly sent poleward into the end of the week.

donweather's picture
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donweather Monday, 18 Feb 2013 at 7:48am

In fact GFS isn't doing too much dissimilar to EC in it's latest 12z run now.......doesn't look like you guys will get very good winds for this system based on it's latest track?

Craig's picture
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Craig Monday, 18 Feb 2013 at 7:48am

Hard to say at this stage as per the model divergence regarding southward movement, but both do have the systems moving down the coast at some stage. Unfortunately winds are looking pretty average for most of the swell event..

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Craig Monday, 18 Feb 2013 at 9:06am

Latest GFS update is coming through and it looks to be tending ECMWF's way so we'll probably see the low stalling more off the Northern NSW coast for most of this week rather than tracking quickly south.

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Craig Monday, 18 Feb 2013 at 9:27am

Oh and Don, latest MJO forecast have it lingering across the Maritime Continent (Australian region) into early March as you pointed out in a comment elsewhere. This could result in an extended period of tropical activity.

donweather's picture
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donweather Monday, 18 Feb 2013 at 10:48am

Thanks Craig. Last time I looked the latest MJO forecast was rather weak, but at least if it stalls, then that's better than nothing.

Oh, and I DO NOT want GFS to align with EC.......bugger off south sunshine!!!

mitchvg's picture
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mitchvg Monday, 18 Feb 2013 at 11:58am

Hey Craig quick q, Cooly extended report - "...coasts through most of the weekend and this will..." Did you mean week not weekend?

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Craig Monday, 18 Feb 2013 at 12:11pm

Yes I did Mitch, cheers for the heads up, now changed.

derra83's picture
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derra83 Monday, 18 Feb 2013 at 1:02pm

Craig,

Where can average Joe's find information on the MJO, and more importatanly for southern Australian surfers, info on the Longwave Trough? Any plans for charts on the new website??

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mitchvg Monday, 18 Feb 2013 at 1:06pm

No worries.
Maybe a weak MJO here means there's more chance of a NZ/New Cal squash zone? I.e. the tradewinds don't get totally bisected by tropical depression? I think that would be ideal...

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mitchvg Monday, 18 Feb 2013 at 1:10pm

Derra, this is a pretty good place to continue on from here...
http://gosurf.co.nz/2013/02/exclusive-forecast-early-autumn-outlook-and-...

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mitchvg Monday, 18 Feb 2013 at 1:22pm

Aucklandsurf.co.nz and it's back catalogue of in depth articles has been erased from the web so far as I can tell, But check back on gosurf.co.nz when big southern ocean lows are lining up and he'll probably do a lengthy write up about them as well

Craig's picture
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Craig Monday, 18 Feb 2013 at 2:16pm

Here's a link to the Long Wave Trough stuff Derra:
http://www.swellnet.com.au/news/2318-long-wave-trough-the-waves-that-cre...

And Wiki has a good explanation of the MJO here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madden%E2%80%93Julian_oscillation

It's hard to explain the MJO in layman's terms and I've tried to do it in these articles, but the above link may help further. Mitch's links go into even more detail and will probably give you a headache if you're not up to scratch on anything :)

We have plans to make some LWT charts for the new site but haven't got around to it just yet.

donweather's picture
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donweather Monday, 18 Feb 2013 at 6:31pm

Latest EC charts are rather interesting and look to move the axis of the low away from SE Qld. YES PLEASE!!!! Just need it to then be a closed low and bingo....game on baby!!!

derra83's picture
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derra83 Monday, 18 Feb 2013 at 7:41pm

Thanks guys. I guess I'm only interested in MJO for interests sake. The LWT is of more concern and those charts Craig linked to are a bit crude. Create some new ones for the new site and get my vote (& click!).

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velocityjohnno Tuesday, 19 Feb 2013 at 12:45pm

Hey derra
I like this link to explain how to generate long wave trough patterns up to 10 days out or so:

http://www.blackheathweather.com/plota.html

although I'm no pro and I am sure the forecasters have much more in-depth charts. But it sure is a little 'winter wonderland' predictor!

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southey Tuesday, 19 Feb 2013 at 10:35pm

Yeah , Johnno .

Your right , Blizz / Blizzard on the WZ forums is a wealth of Knowledge . He and many of the others that congregate around the Alpine / Snow threads are good to bounce off questions for some of the finer / more technical aspects of upcoming systems in the " Southern Lattitudes . Plenty of back catalog reading too for you Derra .

I'm sure Ben could cover most of this , but with his schedule and the fact that these other guys live and breath " Upper Atmosperic conditions " for decades can unlock some old tales of Winters / seasons gone bye . Obviously Don's another . For years i myself would unwillingly follow the " patterns " of weather through the months and different seasons . And they tend to be fairly rhythmic . It wasn't until i started looking into snow forecasts and weather chat that I discovered what many in that community had already been studying .
Good charts are the Key . And like secret spots , I'm not sharing ..lol

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mitchvg Wednesday, 20 Feb 2013 at 6:51pm

What the hell!? I see now that BoM have the low totally fizzing out over bloody Dubbo or somewhere in the middle of whoop whoop!

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shoredump Wednesday, 20 Feb 2013 at 8:48pm

So is that changing the goldy forecast then do u reckon mvg? I didn't really pay close attention to its forecast track before, but am guessing its hugging the coast more closely now. If that's the case, then I'm guessing that means more east in the wind & a lower period swell. I had planned on a fly in fly out mission on Friday, but now I'm not so sure.

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mitchvg Wednesday, 20 Feb 2013 at 10:00pm

Shoredump I hope you are sarcastically asking my advice, but if you're being serious, here it is for what it's worth...
Last night I saw it was being forecast by various models to track sth just offshore, and remain pretty compact. Now BoM, less so GFS, is saying it will cut across the coast on Friday. So I guess there'll just be less Sth swell. But at the same time there should be background E-NE swell maybe grading down to 3ft over the weekend????

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shoredump Thursday, 21 Feb 2013 at 5:50am

Ha thanks Mitch, nah local knowledge always counts, & I can't keep asking Craig for hourly updates. Seems like Friday won't have the quality & maybe not worth the effort.

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shoredump Thursday, 21 Feb 2013 at 5:53am

Or does that still leave quality swell for Friday (generated on Thur) & light winds Friday as it crosses the coast. Could still be good yeah?

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Craig Thursday, 21 Feb 2013 at 6:46am

Hi Shoredump, Friday on the Goldy still looks great with 4-6ft of SE swell on the open beaches, a touch smaller on the inner points (larger on the Tweed) and SW winds for the morning. A swing to more N'ly winds is likely into the afternoon now.

Saturday looks great as well with a smaller easing 3-4ft+ of E/SE swell across most spots and light W/SW winds during the morning.

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shoredump Thursday, 21 Feb 2013 at 7:37am

Unreal, cheers Craig.

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victor Friday, 22 Feb 2013 at 7:43am

bizare synoptic map on bom ,craig pm sent.

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victor Friday, 22 Feb 2013 at 7:46am

was issued at 1800 hrs on 21st for today

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Craig Friday, 22 Feb 2013 at 11:49am

Check your PM Victor, and shoredump, tomorrow not looking good anymore up the Goldy with N/NW to NE winds as the low moves inland. Hope ya got your fill today!

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shoredump Friday, 22 Feb 2013 at 8:44pm

Was good, till I snapped my favourite board. It backed off so quick this arvo, check the Byron buoy for proof. Always fun storm chasing no matter what the outcome is.

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yorkessurfer Friday, 22 Feb 2013 at 9:07pm

It was a filth swell on the Goldy today! It always blows me away how such compact little systems can generate such a swell with not much fetch. Have to say(at the risk of sounding like a grumpy old man pining for the good old days) I really miss old Kirra. This swell would have been perfect for it!!

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shoredump Friday, 22 Feb 2013 at 9:27pm

Agreed. The old Kirra was close to the best wave in the world.

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shoredump Friday, 22 Feb 2013 at 9:30pm

Flying in today, it just looked like one 500 wave set. Awesome swell.

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Craig Saturday, 23 Feb 2013 at 7:04am

Yeah I saw the Byron buoy and thought it was an error! I've never seen wave heights drop that suddenly ever, worth some investigation.

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Craig Saturday, 23 Feb 2013 at 7:22am

Wow, and the Sydney buoy has dropped out of the sky as well!

I think this one is an error though as both Significant and Average Wave Heights both dropped down to the same level, whereas at Byron the readings remained believable after the drop.

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mitchvg Monday, 25 Feb 2013 at 12:37am

Yeah, mid Sunny Coast went from 'big' on Fri morn, to waist high in the arvo. North end still had some really punchy, head high waves on Sat though.

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mick-free Tuesday, 26 Feb 2013 at 1:11pm

Booya - we got serious action next week in the Coral Sea. Any alignment in the models?

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Craig Tuesday, 26 Feb 2013 at 1:22pm

There was some convergence this morning, but since then GFS has diverged away from ECMWF. Next update should reveal more about the state of play for next week.

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mitchvg Tuesday, 26 Feb 2013 at 7:20pm

I hope Rusty can capitalise on this cyclone by sending Jay Davies up to NW WA to make a video or something. Would be sick, does he do the comp rounds though?

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stunet Tuesday, 26 Feb 2013 at 7:36pm

Hey Mitch,

We were talking about something similar in the Weatherzone office recently after I wrote the '10 next cyclones' article. Someone recalled an episode where a car company paid to have a hurricane named after one of the their car models. It happened that Hurricane Barina - or whatever it was - went Cat 5 and destroyed everything in its path. Even killed a few people.

Not the best publicity....

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mitchvg Tuesday, 26 Feb 2013 at 7:47pm

Ha, yeah I vaguely remember something like that. But of course in this situation, they would be doing it afterwards and could avoid a PR nightmare if it were to be a damaging system...which I guess it would be by now, being a severe TC and crossing the coast.

Anyway, interesting to see how we're still getting cyclones in lieu of a strong or even moderate MJO atm.

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Craig Tuesday, 26 Feb 2013 at 8:25pm

Ah, Mitch, the MJO is still more than active over the region as it's stalled. It's weakened slightly but forecast to re-intensify and then from then on it's still undecided.

If you love the super long-range optimistic charts, GFS has a doozy of a system forming between New Zealand and New Caledonia on the week of the 11th March. But take this with the smallest grain of salt you can find ;)

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shoredump Tuesday, 26 Feb 2013 at 8:53pm

Damn, I fall way too easily. Do u realise I am now going to spend the next 2 weeks waiting to hear the words swell event.

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Craig Tuesday, 5 Mar 2013 at 5:36pm

We'll probably see Tropical Cyclone Sandra named in the next 24-48 hours in the North-west Coral Sea between New Caledonia and PNG.

Current forecasts have it meandering through the Coral Sea over the weekend before drifting south-west towards the Central Queensland coast early next week, but we'll keep a close eye on this.

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donweather Tuesday, 5 Mar 2013 at 6:34pm

Latest EC has slightly different ideas!!! although she looks to be rather compact as she moves into our swell window.

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Craig Tuesday, 5 Mar 2013 at 9:59pm

Indeed Don, will be interesting to see which path they take tomorrow!

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donweather Wednesday, 6 Mar 2013 at 10:28am

Both models (GFS and EC) still sticking to their guns (runs) from yesterday. Both still widely divergent. UKMET leaning towards the EC model although still very different.

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Craig Wednesday, 6 Mar 2013 at 10:35am

Personally I think EC has come a little into line with GFS in keeping Sandra closer to the Queensland coastline, whereas last night it had it further east and just south-west of New Caldeonia.

Surf forecasts will be real tricky if it's closer to the Queensland coast (but still tricky even if it goes EC's way) with memories of Freda coming back.

The fetch width and length being limited on Sandra's eastern flank, liming size across the South-east Queensland coast and further on the North Coast.

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braithy Wednesday, 6 Mar 2013 at 10:43am

Craig. Is there much chance of 6-foot kirra in the next week or so?

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Craig Wednesday, 6 Mar 2013 at 10:56am

There's a slim chance into the last day of the waiting period Braithy, but in general we'll see continued trade-swell activity to 3ft at Snapper into the end of the week before picking back up through the weekend and into early next week to the 4-5ft+ range.

This will be mainly a result of Sandra squeezing the high pressure ridge in the Coral Sea, with localised E'ly swell overpowering any N/NE groundswell at this stage.

There's still plenty of variability in the models though, so the main thing to remember is that there's no lack of swell in the rest of the waiting period with a re-building trend from Sunday onwards.

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braithy Wednesday, 6 Mar 2013 at 11:06am

Cheers mate. Looks like she'll be run and won at Rainbow then!

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mitchvg Wednesday, 6 Mar 2013 at 11:36am

Who wants to speculate on what Slater's gonna get up to before Bells, if Sandra does provide something? Would he surf Noosa???

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stunet Wednesday, 6 Mar 2013 at 3:04pm

Noosa? Reckon that'd be too obvious for the most connected surfer on Earth. If Sandra does develop the way we all hope it'd have to be something a bit further north, somewhere that doesn't have a carpark.

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braithy Wednesday, 6 Mar 2013 at 3:41pm

Yep. I've seen him there before too.

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stunet Wednesday, 6 Mar 2013 at 3:53pm

Here's something to note: There's only two days between the end of the Quiksilver Rainbow Pro and the Margs Drug Aware Pro. If Rod Brooks hangs around for TC Sandra then there won't be much time to travel across the continent and get a new place sussed. Expect to see all the pros leave posts haste after the Rainbow Pro.

But! There's one WT surfer not on the draw for Margs - Kelly Slater. He's left his options wide open.

http://www.pro-surfing.com/alhunt/files/2013evt22.pdf

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braithy Wednesday, 6 Mar 2013 at 3:55pm

Didn't Kelly score some insane sydney last year doing the same thing? ie missing the margs event and surfing Sydney instead?

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thermalben Wednesday, 6 Mar 2013 at 7:39pm

I reckon that was midway during the Rip Curl Pro at Bells a long time ago (2006?) when he flew up and surfed 10-12ft Deadmans. Managed to lose his back fin on the way out and still ripped on the resulting twinnie.

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braithy Wednesday, 6 Mar 2013 at 7:54pm

Yeah, you're probably right. All the years since about 2003 until now have blended into one long year in my brain!

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donweather Wednesday, 6 Mar 2013 at 9:20pm

So Ben/Craig, with Easter early this year, what's ya thoughts on swell for Bells? I know in the past, it hasn't been good when Easter's been early.

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southey Wednesday, 6 Mar 2013 at 10:08pm

Don , judging by the recent patterns .

Bells will be crap . Still too many easterlies , and barely a land breeze in sight .

One word will most likely some it up " MOBILE " .

As for Slats , he'd be stupid not to go west . A quite long LWT fetch seems to lining up for WA late Next week . Bleeding , I'll be there one week too early .

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thermalben Thursday, 7 Mar 2013 at 6:32am

For the record, I don't subscribe to the 'Bells is early this year so the surf will be terrible' theory.

We've had plenty of great waves in Torquay 'out of season', and conversely, we've also had many lengthy flat spells in the middle of winter.

Every year we're hoping for six unreal days at Bells within a twelve day waiting period - which is a big ask at any time of the year - but I don't believe that shunting the competition back by a few weeks into mid-late April theoretically improves its chances of good waves.

In any case, we can all be thankful that we don't have a sand pumping curveball in the equation at Bells.

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Craig Friday, 8 Mar 2013 at 8:12am

Tropical Cyclone Sandra was named early this morning but the models are more divergent than ever.

GFS is sticking with it moving towards the Queensland coast but has it tracking south, hugging the East Coast similar to Oswald and the last tropical low.

ECMWF on the other hand has it drifting around the bottom of New Caledonia, down towards New Zealand before re-curving into the Tasman Sea.

Personally I, and I'm guessing a lot of other people are hoping for ECMWF to come true, but until we get some convergence it's nearly impossible to predict.

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fitzroy-21 Friday, 8 Mar 2013 at 8:34am

I'll put my money on ECMWF. Slide down the west coast off New Caledonia toward NZ.

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mitchvg Friday, 8 Mar 2013 at 9:09am

And ACCESS-G has it slowly tracking SE - S - SSW. Ending up just out of direct reach of SEQ... That super long range chart you mentioned Craig is starting to shape up ;).

As for Slater, I guess somewhere further North and without a carpark means DI Point is excluded, maybe the GBR?

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mick-free Friday, 8 Mar 2013 at 1:57pm

I got Sandra a Cat 1 tracking East not SSW on a curve to New Cal. Any chance the extra tropical low sitting above NZ squeezes it down the Tasman?

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fitzroy-21 Friday, 8 Mar 2013 at 2:07pm

Yeah Mick, the models I've been watching are showing it moving East for the next 24-36hrs before curving down the West side off New Cal.
Time will tell as we all know how unpredictable they can be.

I'm getting a bit sick of all the bullshit bantering around on the mainstream media though. Anyone would think we've never had a cyclone up here in QLD the way there all carrying on.

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Craig Friday, 8 Mar 2013 at 2:09pm

Hi Mick, all forecasts have Sandra tracking east through the weekend but then heading south into Monday.

It's from early Tuesday onwards that they split with GFS showing a south-west recurve, while EC has it tracking south-east towards NZ.

I think if we see it going south-east towards NZ we could see it stalling above NZ and even heading back west, but this evening's updates will shed more light on this :)

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mick-free Friday, 8 Mar 2013 at 2:55pm

Given that German slag didn't give any swell of its NE flank because of New Caledonia are we looking at the same sort of thing - ie big overcalls with swell size??

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Craig Friday, 8 Mar 2013 at 3:02pm

Not expecting much size at all off the eastern flank (area where the N/NE swell will be generated), more interested in the squeezing of the system with the high in the Tasman Sea and its southern flank.

So for Sydney I wouldn't expect anything off Sandra until it moves near New Zealand.

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mick-free Friday, 8 Mar 2013 at 3:21pm

So any ideas on forerunners hitting the Qld coast....trying to plan a window to get in and out

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Craig Friday, 8 Mar 2013 at 3:23pm

Best window at this stage is probably from Wednesday through to the end of the week. Still a lot of movement though depending on where Sandra travels.

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Craig Friday, 8 Mar 2013 at 3:34pm

Finally GFS has turned away from its Queensland crossing forecast and has come more into alignment with the other models, with Sandra just stalling west of New Caledonia while weakening into the end of next week.

What this means for swell Mick isn't that great, with only 3-5ft or so of trade-swell likely through most of next week with no considerable NE groundswell.

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redsands Saturday, 9 Mar 2013 at 9:42am

There will be north groundswell somewhere even if it does dissect Australia and NZ and head to the south pole

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fitzroy-21 Saturday, 9 Mar 2013 at 4:28pm

With my work, this is my go to page when I need to know. I have been using it for years and found they are pretty well spot on.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html

Interesting to see a low forcasted to cross the tip of Cape York mid next week. Nice if it follows a similar line.

southey's picture
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southey Saturday, 9 Mar 2013 at 7:50pm

Yeah Fitzy,
That page replaced the old FNMOC page ...

Can be be good . And that's pretty much a major input
For JTWC . Site

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southey Saturday, 9 Mar 2013 at 8:00pm

PS ,
@ Ben . The bells observation was purely from
A local winds pattern point of view . I agree swell timing
Is irrelevant . Although I doubt we will see another
" good Friday " like last year for a while .....

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fitzroy-21 Sunday, 10 Mar 2013 at 6:25am

Cheers southy, I'll check it out too.

When I'm uncertain of whats going on, it'll be the one I check to decide whether to run for home or not.

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redsands Sunday, 10 Mar 2013 at 11:32am

Craig,should I believe the projected synoptic chart for N.S.W in 7 days time? It looks very juicy

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Craig Monday, 11 Mar 2013 at 10:38am

Sorry for the delayed response redsands, was away up the coast on the weekend.

I don't know what the models were showing yesterday but you can believe what your seeing today, good strong groundswell ranging between E/NE to E/SE for the whole Australian East Coast for Saturday!

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mick-free Monday, 11 Mar 2013 at 11:49am

Its raining low pressure

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redsands Tuesday, 12 Mar 2013 at 7:36am

Cheers Craig,I was hoping I wasn't dreaming but the more I looked at it the more I started drooling,good chance for some decent winds as well to welcome the swell

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Craig Wednesday, 13 Mar 2013 at 5:04pm

This 'last chance' looks to extend into the end of the month and possibly start of April, with the MJO just meandering around the Western Pacific Ocean through the next week at least.

There's lots of potential past Tropical Cyclone Tim which should be named soon off the Northern Qld coast, making this one of the more active starts to a year I've seen!

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mick-free Thursday, 14 Mar 2013 at 6:36pm

Tim looks like a fizzer for waves but Cyclone Chaser's are saying Sandra's gone Cat 2. No change on Tropicalstormrisk.com any news??????

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Craig Thursday, 14 Mar 2013 at 9:32pm

Nah it's Tim that's gone Cat 2, Sandra turned extra-tropical last night and is now weakening off the East Coast.

The one to keep an eye on is the cyclone after Tim, looks like it could provide some Easter goodness!

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mitchvg Friday, 15 Mar 2013 at 11:37pm

Craig, why did the Sunny Coast drop off so quickly! Cos it was so short range? I surfed Carties on Wed arvo, 4-5ft and washing through, then this arvo, barely surfable.
and how do you explain how Kirra was on Thursday vs the Tweed buoy stats? The amount of web froth seems to have changed (dropped) significantly more than the change in swell. Apart from change in direction, which is still fairly E anyway.

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mitchvg Friday, 15 Mar 2013 at 11:38pm

Cheers for keeping this thread and the analysis going too btw

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Craig Monday, 18 Mar 2013 at 7:12am

Well, the MJO is racing off to the east and with it goes the prospects of that second intense tropical cyclone.

Till next time..

Oh and to answer your question Mitch, there was a distinct difference between the E/NE groundswell seen through Wednesday and Thursday across the coast, while on Friday a fresh pulse of SE swell moved up the coast, and this change in direction would be the main cause IMO. So as the E/NE swell faded sharply, the SE swell didn't make much of an impact on the Sunny Coast, was more aimed into the Mid-North and North Coasts.

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southey Monday, 18 Mar 2013 at 9:11am

Like clockwork , the MJO pisses off . And the LWT appears to be back in the swing , real soon ...... hello BELLS ... or wherever tickles ya fancy in the southern half of this continent .

Gee there's some tasty looking maps being spat out of some of the more reliable models .....

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thermalben Monday, 18 Mar 2013 at 9:30am

That's a slightly different outlook to your commentary 11 days ago Southey... ;)

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southey Monday, 18 Mar 2013 at 9:48am

and ...

southey
9 days ago
PS ,
@ Ben . The bells observation was purely from
A local winds pattern point of view . I agree swell timing
Is irrelevant . Although I doubt we will see another
" good Friday " like last year for a while .....

and in two days time that could change again.... hehehhe
" a week is a long time in any sport " , and surfing ; a lifetime..

we had a dew , the last few mornings !!!

but timing being the bitch , that she is . i could see another week or so of " settled " weather come back late in the Bells window .
Best they get stuck into it early . atleast the warmer waters should see a few more land breezes from now on .

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thermalben Monday, 18 Mar 2013 at 9:52am

I know mate.. just giving you a stir.

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donweather Monday, 18 Mar 2013 at 12:22pm

"So as the E/NE swell faded sharply, the SE swell didn't make much of an impact on the Sunny Coast, was more aimed into the Mid-North and North Coasts."

Craig, I'd be very interested in your thoughts on the Gold Coast buoy for Friday lunch time, compared to the Tweed Buoy. Goldy bouy Hsig almost double the Tweed?? (and actually observed in the water).

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Craig Monday, 18 Mar 2013 at 12:49pm

Hi Don,

It looks like the bommies/underwater reefs and Cook Island played a big part in attenuating the south-east swell.

Check out the ocean floor/bathymetry and buoy location here: http://i132.photobucket.com/albums/q10/sasurfa1/Tweed.jpg

Whereas the Gold Coast buoy has a relatively unobstructed window to the same south-east swell.

Similar readings are seen with southerly swells, ie Tweed is smaller than Gold Coast and Brisbane buoys.

donweather's picture
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donweather Monday, 18 Mar 2013 at 1:31pm

Thanks Craig. Very interesting chart. Although I have to say I've rarely ever seen the Tweed buoy smaller than than the Goldy in a S'ly swell direction.

thermalben's picture
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thermalben Monday, 18 Mar 2013 at 2:11pm

Really Don? I'm sure I've seen it smaller plenty of times. Although, it's certainly possible that some swells from very particular angles may squeak in between the bommies, which may result in larger waves at the buoy. That's just speculation though.

I'll watch the next south swell with great interest to see what transpires.

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donweather Monday, 18 Mar 2013 at 5:38pm

Well, we're certainly coming into that time of year for the S'ly swells so we can all watch with interest.

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joakse Monday, 18 Mar 2013 at 7:01pm

Hey Craig, what site did you pull that last image from?
http://i132.photobucket.com/albums/q10/sasurfa1/Tweed.jpg

I have been looking for a site that shows all nearshore topography for a while with no luck. Appreciate a heads up if it is freely available.

thermalben's picture
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thermalben Monday, 18 Mar 2013 at 8:11pm

joakse, the image was from my Navionics App. It's not free but it offers really good high res bathy data for pretty much every device. http://www.navionics.com

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donweather Tuesday, 19 Mar 2013 at 9:48am

Exhibit A, yesterday afternoon, S'ly groundswell moving up the coast. Tweed buoy Hsig 1.5m, Southport buoy Hsig 1.0m

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thermalben Tuesday, 19 Mar 2013 at 10:28am

There ya go. Looks like it squeaked through the gaps (interesting to note both buoys recorded the direction as E/SE).

Obviously there's some attenuation happening past Point Danger (resulting in a loss of size at the Gold Coast buoy) under direct southerly swells but I've seen plenty of south swells under perform at the Tweed buoy too.

donweather's picture
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donweather Tuesday, 19 Mar 2013 at 11:27am

I hardly ever use the swell direction of the Tweed/Goldy buoys when the swell is from the south as it seems to be affected by local bathymetry around these buoys. Perhaps those reefs south of the Tweed buoy are refracting the S'ly swell into the Tweed buoy, rather than squeaking through the gaps?

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thermalben Tuesday, 19 Mar 2013 at 11:42am

Yeah that's kinda what I meant. As it is there's often a significant range in wave heights between many Tweed Coast beaches under south swells. I suspect the current location of the Tweed buoy is in the prime spot for swells exhibiting these periods from this direction.

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shoredump Tuesday, 19 Mar 2013 at 3:56pm

No sand at Snapper = better banks at Kirra. Stop the pump.

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mick-free Tuesday, 19 Mar 2013 at 4:58pm

Is it really that good shoredump though. Atleast snapper spreads the crowds. Looked like Kirra was cooking last Thursday, all the ingredients came through for perfect day with swell size, period and wind. I think Kelly and Joel made it a lot better on the Wednesday than it actually was - look at the expression session in comparison.

In an effort to bring back the weather bomb back into the vocab...Tim has gone crazy on convection and is going to dump shitload of rain. Did Sandra bomb with that Southerly front or did it just get absorbed when it hit southern latitudes? Pretty messy weather charts from yesterday

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mitchvg Friday, 22 Mar 2013 at 12:16am

Maybe we can pick apart the directional issues a bit more with the directional spectra now on the Byron buoy. The Pt Lookout buoy spends so much time at 180, and the Goldy & Tweed buoys can't hardly make it past 135, it can be hard to see what's really going on.

Realistically, shouldn't consistency be the measure of 'bring back Kirra' or not? When you compare Kirra in the 90s or whatever to the Superbank, which would provide more decent waves (say >2ft and light onshore at worst) throughout an 'average' year? My guess is The Superbank because it would get more sth swell? But with a deep Rainbow Bay, would more sth swell get to Kirra anyway?

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Craig Tuesday, 16 Apr 2013 at 2:32pm

For those interested, the MJO has come back around into our region, but as you can see on the chart linked below, it has little to no strength.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/foroper.shtml

Even if it did though, all the activity is further north towards the equator and away from us now, so we'd likely see no real major impact or significant cyclones forming.

In any case the latest Tasman Low produced a great quality swell for the whole Eastern Seaboard from Noosa to Eagle Hawk Neck.

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southey Tuesday, 16 Apr 2013 at 9:20pm

Craig , correct me if I'm wrong .
But whenever the MJO radial graph has a reading inside the inner circle . the MJO itself is pretty much indescernable? as opposed to weak .

In my absence of schooled knowledge on this , i go off obs' . And at times near equinox the MJO may not actually lose strength or have a cross equatorial flow . But instead release a transitioning system poleward .
Of note ex' TC Victoria stalled over the w/end and many " southern " forecasts changed or didn't eventuate . Be it a blocking pattern or a small circular/retrograde of the MJO signal ? , will we see all that instability that currently sits over WA drift across at mid lattitudes to eventually become the trigger for another ECL .

Something tells me that this one will stall longer or even get captured in a SE surge and go to the prime position well east of Byron . ?!
Thoughts !?

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Craig Wednesday, 17 Apr 2013 at 8:01am

Yeah your right Southey, it's pretty much indiscernible if it's inside that circle.

As for the East Coast Low (ECL) forecast for the NSW Far South Coast Friday/Saturday, this has nothing to do with the instability over WA but everything to do with a deep pool of cold air in the upper atmosphere shedding off a cold burst pushing up into Vicco tomorrow.

You can see the cold pool shedding off in the below GFS upper atmosphere forecast charts (blue-white blob off the NSW coast).

http://i132.photobucket.com/albums/q10/sasurfa1/ScreenShot2013-04-17at75...