North Pacific swell poses the question: Will Eddie go?
When Jaws on Maui broke in early October hopes were high for a stellar Hawaiian season. Since that session, however, there's only been a couple of notable swell events none of which approached the size or intensity of that early season swell.
Well, the big wave drought is about to break as an oversized west-northwest groundswell bears down on the Hawaiian Islands.
The source of this swell is a 'bombing' low pressure system off the Japanese coast ('bombing' is a term used when the central surface pressure drops by more than 24hPa in a 24 hour period). Wind speeds around the core of the low have already been clocked at 60kts by satellites, but a further intensification today should result in winds reaching hurricane force, or 70-75kts. While wind strengths within the severe storm are phenomenal for a cold core (non tropical) system, it's the east-northeast movement towards Hawaii while retaining its intensity that will generate this oversized groundswell.
Will this be the swell to kick the Eddie Aikau Quiksilver Big Wave Invitational into gear after a three year hiatus? This question can be answered in two parts, the first relating to the swell size and direction, while the second revolves around the local winds and conditions.
The perfect swell direction for Waimea Bay under a long-period groundswell is from the west-northwest. When long-period swells arrive from this direction, their size isn't affected by the deep water reefs of Outer Log Cabins to the north. Additionally, swells with too much west will fall within the wave shadow of Kauai.
The direction of this swell is ideal, however the size may just fall on the wrong side of the required 20 foot+ to get the Eddie underway. Veteran North Shore surfers have a rule of thumb that storms have to push east of the International Date Line to produce a genuine 25-20 foot swell and the storm will fall just short of this, stalling some 1,000km to the west of the date line. In saying this the sheer strength of the wind and magnitude of the low should, by our estimates, still produce a 20 foot+ groundswell for Friday Hawaii time (Saturday Australian time).
The other issue that organisers of the Eddie will be watching closely are the local winds. At this stage they're expected to be cross-shore from the north-northeast as a frontal system extends across the Hawaiian Islands. Some Waimea Bay surfers prefer the wind to be light onshore as it provides small chops and bumps they can use to project themselves into the waves earlier than normal. This only works up to a point, if the onshore wind gets too strong the wave at Waimea simply loses its shape. The cut off point is around 15-20 knots, which is the predicted wind strength for Friday.
With the storm and local winds not likely to change much over the next couple of days the job of assessing the conditions and making the call now falls squarely onto the organisers of the Eddie Aikau. Stay tuned for further details. //CRAIG BROKENSHA
Comments
I just heard from someone involved in the Eddie, apparently George Downing and Glen Moncata (co-directors) will be making a decision tomorrow. As per Craig's article they've got a weather eye on the local winds.
link for the live coverage -
http://quiksilverlive.com/eddieaikau/2013/home.en.html
No update or news there.
Just wondering if the eddie gets a no-go, then it may be all on for Mavericks invitational..
Yep, trying to find out what the go is with that. Potentially the Eddie, the Red Bull Peahi event, the Nelscott Reef Challenge and the Mavs comp could all run in this swell event. Reckon there'd be a few big wave surfers keenly watching this swell and winging some last minute flights.
Wave Watch III forecasts have 28.3 second forerunners arriving Thursday morning Hawaii time.. 28.3s!
This gives a great representation of how phenomenal the storm is, as periods of this length can only be made by hurricane force winds.
Hey Craig, how do you get access to such exact period information as that (28.3 sec)?
Hi Don, free access is available here.. http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/waves/WEB_P/multi_1.latest_run/plots/multi_1....
Quiksilver could run an ad between each & every wave
The Eddie is off. In a meeting this morning George Downing and Glen Moncata hit the red light. Now to see if other events run during this swell.
Thanks Craig. Stu, did they say why the Eddie is off? I wouldn't think a swell like this one in the North Pac comes off very often, so it seems strange they're not running the Eddie? Is it local winds?
Also, Craig, how does one make sense of the files on this page and determine the location without going through every file? Is there a similar plot file for any locations near the east coast of Aus?
http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/waves/WEB_P/multi_1.latest_run/plots/?bcsi_sc...
I don't look at those charts sorry Don, but it looks like the file name gives the location, with hs signifying significant wave height, and tp being peak period, while the numbers are the forecast hour.
There's no East Coast charts, just a regional Australian chart under the name aus_ind....
And regarding point locations near the East Coast, there are none publicly accesible but we will have data available with the new website.
With an 80% chance that the Mavericks Invitational 2012/2013 presented by GoPro will run this Sunday, January 20th, John Forse, Founder and Contest Director of the Nelscott Reef Big Wave Classic issued this statement.
"As much as we hate to pass on a good swell, We have decided in the interest of cohesiveness of the big wave brotherhood and the Big Wave World Tour to not run the Nelscott Reef Big Wave Classic this weekend and throw all our support behind the Mavericks Invitational that should have great waves for the best big wave surfers in the world. We still have 2+ more months in the waiting period and hope the surf gods will reward us with our own epic swell."
(Information taken from the Nelscott Reef Big Wave Challenge website)
Latest news: The green light is shining bright - the Mavericks Invitational Contest, presented by GoPro, is on! A more than "24 hour" notice has been called and contestants and alternates from Brazil, Hawaii, Southern California and South Africa are making travel arrangements. Veterans from Santa Cruz, San Francisco and Pacifica will make the drive with hearts pounding.
Everyone involved, and then some, have been following the swell charts since last Thursday, waiting to see if the predicted heights and durations would drop but the maps have held their own and now this beast of a wave will be paddled into for a money prize on Sunday, January 20. The guys invited have been surfing and watching footage of the infamous wave for decades. This is no ASP dream tour, Mavericks is one the gnarliest waves in the world.
Mark Sponsler, the official swell forecaster for the contest predicts, "A strong storm producing 60 foot seas. A solid, very long period swell." Light to moderate offshore winds combined with a low tide at 12:32 p.m. will make for favorable conditions at this years event.
Go get em Ben Wilko, all the best champ!!
Red Bull/Jaws has also been given the Red Light. So, Mavericks is the only comp to run off this swell. Should be great viewing!
Watch the free webcast LIVE of all the surfing action, cool interviews and contest details on our live webcast at www.mavericksinvitational.com.
Plus, we’ll have some exciting, never-before-seen footage from unique camera angles provided by our presenting sponsor GoPro.
Check back for all the action starting at 8 a.m. on Sunday, January 20.
SWEET!
Theres no swell forecast on the website - they are saying big and beautiful so in reality 12 - 15 feet with bigger sets?
If I have it correct does that mean a 3am start (Aust Est std time)
Yeah smack on Mick, I'm thinking a really inconsistent 12-15ft with maybe the odd bigger bomb.
And it's actually 2:30am our time, can get a view in before the early, haha!
Does anyone know the format - got 24 surfers again the web says very little.
Pulled this off another site. Quote from oraniser Jeff Clark. Nothing about size!!!??
"We watched this thing form in the center of the storm-generating West Pacific for days," Clark said. "And after all the models, a few things are clear. We are gonna have really good weather. We are going to have a solid powerful swell that's gonna hit Saturday with super long interval (20+ seconds) and hold through Sunday."
So that's 2:30am Monday January 21st our time?
Yep, Monday morning Don.
25 second peak periods were registered on the NDBC 51201 buoy which is situated about 6km offshore from Waimea late this afternoon Hawaiian time.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=51201
Currently the open ocean swell is around 2.5m's @ 22 seconds and climbing, while the 51101 buoy which is 500km's NW of Oahu is at around 4.7m @ 19 seconds and still climbing.
THE COMPETITORS
Matt Ambrose
Ryan Augenstein
Grant “Twiggy†BakerChris
BertishCarlos Burle
Ken “Skindog†Collins
Shane Desmond
Shawn Dollar
Shane Dorian
Nathan Fletcher
Mark Healey
Rusty Long
Greg Long
Alex Martins
Peter Mel
Ryan Seelbach
Kelly Slater
Tyler Smith
Jamie Sterling
Anthony Tashnick
Grant Washburn
Dave Wassell
Ben Wilkinson
Zach Wormhoudt
THE ALTERNATES
1. Tyler Fox (Santa Cruz)
2. Josh Loya (Santa Cruz)
3. Colin Dwyer (Pacifica)
4. Nic Lamb (Santa Cruz)
5. Danilo Couto (Brazil)
6. Derek Dunfee (San Diego)
7. Ben Andrews (San Francisco)
8. Andrew Marr (South Africa)
9. Travis Payne (Pacifica)
17. Jamie Mitchell (Australia)
"Currently the open ocean swell is around 2.5m's @ 22 seconds and climbing, while the 51101 buoy which is 500km's NW of Oahu is at around 4.7m @ 19 seconds and still climbing."
So again I ask the question, why isn't the Eddie running?
www.mavericksinvitational.com
For live feed ^
Don, I'm pretty sure they mentioned that the local winds weren't favourable.
Don, as F21 said local winds were expected to be an issue today (AWS obs suggested it was calm at dawn, and that the N'ly kicked up around lunch, surfcam obs suggest it might be 15-18kts now).
I'm not sure where their size thresholds are but looking at the 51101 buoy, it appears to be a fraction smaller than when I was there two years ago (and they called it off for being too inconsistent).
I've also been watching the Waimea surfcam for some time and haven't seen any waves breaking yet although there is a pack of surfers in the lineup, and it can be a half hour or more between waves at times, which is hard to pick up on a surfcam.
Anyway, I'll get some feedback on size later today from people on the ground and will let you know how big it was.
RCJ reckons there were only a couple of 15ft+ sets at Waimea today. Said he saw a few 25ft sets at Backyards in the arvo, however a few crew went out at Himalayas after seeing some bombs only to find it was mainly 10ft or so. And the wind came up around half past ten making things bumpy. So overall a pretty average event for the North Shore.
Will be very interested to see how big Mavs ends up getting - our internal models show around 15ft or so for Sunday (local time). I've also noticed that so far, none of the event officials or forecasters are willing to put a size on it (at least publicly anyway). And, it'll be much more inconsistent there compared to the North Shore. However local bathymetrical effects - which I'm not familiar with - may assist in kicking up the size a little more. We'll have to wait and see.
...and 10 foot at Palikir if ol' Allois is to be believed. Even knocking two feet off to adjust for enthusiasm and you've still got a wild swell.
10ft P-Pass means PNG will be off the hook over the coming days (local winds pending). Wish I was there!
Here's part of an email from Allois last night: "Pohnpei was the best place to be on the swell in the entiere pacific. epicness!"
And the swell hasn't even hit the Eastern Pacific yet...
Just read on another site Slater, Dorian and Burle are out, and Mavericks was 15 feet today in the arvo. Kevin Wallis forecaster is calling 15 - 25 feet with 30 foot (faces).
@ Jughead - do the alternates drop in order?
feed on redbull
http://live.redbull.tv/events/178/mavericks-invitational-2013/
Jeez it's a loooooong break between sets.
And not that big at all, as expected.
I wonder how big Nelscott ended up getting? They called off their event because of Mavs.
Looks like a great day for surfing though on West Coast USA. 8 foot clean. Red Bull struggling too on the webcast. Without promoting another site Surfline have a reliable feed.
Without knowing the break guessing Nelscott will be similar in size 3-4 times overhead.
WHole event is a great gopro commercial
The Mavericks Invitational is supposed to be a BIG WAVE event? So why are they doing the Huntington Hop and pulling into the inside ledge. Whoever called the comp on needs to wear the dunce cap for the rest of the week.
From Swellnet article above, "Veteran North Shore surfers have a rule of thumb that storms have to push east of the International Date Line to produce a genuine 25-20 foot swell"
This swell had to travel another 2,000+ miles to reach the US mainland, dealing with swell decay and crossing the continental shelf in the process. Hindcasting it from my gilded and gifted position the swell was always going to struggle to reach 15 foot. Which is exactly what happened. A huge letdown.
Yep, it was hugely underwhelming, eh? Glad I didn't get up early to watch it. I often wonder how the surfers feel in these circumstances, some of them, such as Twiggy Baker, Frank Solomon and Chris Bertish, flew all the way from South Africa on last minute flights. Would they be angry, thinking the whole thing was a waste of time (I mean really, it didn't even get close to being a legit big wave comp) or are they just happy to have had a shot at the first prize cheque?
It'll be interesting to hear how big Nelscott Reef and other west coast spots got to see if it was distance from the source that caused the diminutive size or something else (local bathymetry near Mavs, for instance).
Peter Mel was just announced as the winner with Alex Martens in second and Greg Long third. All the finalists have decide to split the kitty.
Not to mention the huge fail on the website for the live stream - it was basically inaccessible for the entire event. They had to push people to a feed on Surfline. Underwhelming indeed.
Just out of interest, with the understanding that winds weren't favourable, how big and consistant did it get at Waimea??
Hey Fitz,
From TBen on Sunday night: "RCJ reckons there were only a couple of 15ft+ sets at Waimea today. Said he saw a few 25ft sets at Backyards in the arvo, however a few crew went out at Himalayas after seeing some bombs only to find it was mainly 10ft or so. And the wind came up around half past ten making things bumpy. So overall a pretty average event for the North Shore."
After the poor internet coverage at Mavs be interesting how things turn out for Jaws contest hosted by Redbull. In the article below it mentions TV airtime on NBC.
http://www.actionrecon.com/full-details-for-red-bull-jaws-invitational/2...
Kelly is on the invite list too - does that mean he can't compete or does he have a ASP waiver?
Also Snips Parson broke his back in San Fran same day as Mavs Invitational ran and is contest director.
Few spanners there, be some pressure to run event with NBC coverage wouldn't there.
If I heard right layday at Volcom Pipe Pro because conditions are too gnarly - what is going on??