First Tropical Cyclone on the Charts
It's been a long, drawn out spring across the Gold Coast, made worse by persistent northerly winds and weak, junky windswells. Aside from a short reprieve during the second week of November, there's been nothing of substance with surfers travelling south of the border faring the best.
This has changed for the better heading into this week, with the first trade-swell of the season slowly muscling up across the region over the coming days. We don't want to count our chickens before they've hatched but the next egg rolling down the chute behind the trade-swell is of more interest as it may become the first Tropical Cyclone of the season.
On the back of a relatively poor cyclone season earlier in the year, it's welcoming to see the first signs of tropical activity forming in the Fiji region. Tropical Depression 04F is currently only a weak convective weather system with a slight but broad rotation. It is, however, forecast to slowly intensify over the coming 24-48 hours, while drifting towards Samoa before being steered back into the Fiji region during the weekend. With sea surface temperatures being well above the 26 degree threshold needed for cyclone formation, and the upper atmosphere winds being relatively subdued, the likelihood of a Tropical Cyclone forming is very high.
If this Tropical Cyclone forms it will be named Evan by the Nadi-Tropical Cyclone Centre, Fiji, and it is forecast by most of the leading global forecast models to move into South-East Queensland's and New South Wales' swell window early next week. As touched on above, this is a long way down the track but if Tropical Cyclone Evan does form as currently predicted the long-range Easterly groundswell generated by the cyclone is expected to arrive later next week.
We'll keep an eye on the developments of Tropical Depression 04F over the next week and provide regular updates, but you can also track how this system is developing through our South East Queensland Weather Charts. //CRAIG BROKENSHA
Comments
Craig, GFS seems to be the outlier at the moment with respect to the intensity and SW drift of this TC. EC has a much weaker TC and keeps the system in the swell shadow of the South Pacific islands. Access G not even interested. Thoughts on which way you're leaning?
Hi Don, I've been keeping an eye on most of the models and EC, GFS and NOGAPS are all showing the south-west drift. I don't have confidence or use Access G at all.
Break out the cigars boys.
Thanks Craig. My main point was GFS seemed to be the only model that had this TC bombing big time, whereas EC had a weak TC forming, and Access G had zilch. I do note that Access G is now on board with a TC forming in it's latest runs. GFS is hinting now at the bomb TC getting shunted away from Oz, or at least in a S/SE direction.
its too far out to call imo. There does however seem to be a reinforcing high entering the Tasman which should provide something solid for this low to push against. Whether its a TC or a strong extra tropical system we should be in for a great run of swell.... and about bloody time too might I add lol.
Interestingly GFS also has a strong front pushing through the lower Tasman that could count out anything but Nth of Mid Nth NSW coast .
However as Poncho has pointed out , the other Models all show bugger all wind going on locally for an extended period , so no matter which way it goes , as long as it slowly moves you should see some long range E for Xmas ?? even the extended East fetch of the Trough pressing on said high should deliver something .
You Queenslanders might see one those 14 sec ground swells ( :-)) that you talk up . hehehe
hahaha might even push 15s+ with the low out near the cooks/tonga although that swell will be very diluted and probably wont push 2ft in size...
The Joint Typhoon Warning Centre's latest update states "THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH."
Also the Fiji Met Service have a similar outlook. "POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH."
These developments are in the Samoan region, but all the leading global forecasting models still have the Tropical Cyclone drifting back to the south-west during the weekend and stalling just south-east of Fiji early next week.
Evan has just been born!!!
Let's hope GFS is on the money then shall we!!!
they go into the fiji cyclones potential development around the 9min mark
there should be an update here tonight too http://28storms.com/cyclone/
Yep Don, welcome TC Evan!
Welcome Evan, may u grow into a big fat ugly bastard, & hang around for far too long.
just saw this in the comments and just had to look!
Welcome Evan, may u grow into a big fat ugly bastard, & hang:
thought there was a juicy bitchfest in the comments...
anyway, all you ex viccos have a great time with the fortold swell up there...seen how good its been down here lately?
looks like its going side swipe Samoa and Fiji
update from 28storms, lots on steering but not much on intensity
IMO this thing will reach the CS/Tasman. Fiji met are saying it could possibly get to cat5 by the time it gets to fiji. It may not be a TC when it gets here though, even so, going from a cat 5 to a extra tropical low it will be huge...
While it's not great for Fiji/Samoa regarding damage and loss of life, this system looks to be a good swell producer.
4-5days+ of long-range E'ly groundswell is definitely on the cards for the East Coast!
Just a shame local winds here might also spoil the parade for the tasty peak of the swell??
It's not looking at all good for Fiji based on latest prognosis. Namotu and tavarua might get wiped off the map if current forecasts hold. Looks to be heading right over the top of them and turning at the same time while a cat 4/5!
yep tropicalstormrisk.com has it 85% chance of running over Tavarua. Either way they are in for a hiding. Water temps are pretty cool still along the East coast NSW. Maybe way too early to say but if this goes ex tropical could be similar to the 2001 July swell when it sat in that 1200km fetch and dropped bombs all the East Coast
Evan went cat5 this morning and was/is at around 945mb. The entire north coast will cop the eyewall as it moves SW. Really feeling for the people of Fiji at the moment :(
Yeah it's going to be devastating for Fiji today.
And Mick I don't think it's going to hang around too long after it makes the extra-tropical transition. Looks like it will move over New Zealand and continue weakening early next week.
So drift East along top of NZ?? Could be on for NZ NE coasts!!
When is the peak for QLD then?
More so just drift straight down into the North Island while weakening. Definitely good for NZ North and North East coasts!
The swell will ebb and pulse from Thursday afternoon onwards through until Sunday evening in SE Qld but we could see the biggest waves coming through later Thursday and early Friday with the stronger swell periods.
Craig, whilst I agree with your forecast based on the latest near shore model forecasts, I'm a little confused about why the near shore forecasts are only forecasting 4-5ft swell to grace our shores from TC Evan. If it's generating 25-30ft seas and in the direction of our great circle path, I'm struggling to see how this only equates to 4-5ft open ocean swell near shore to us? Is there some shallow water between New Caledonia and Fiji that's diluting the swell somehow (and the models are calculating/taking this into account)?
My calcs are showing much much greater near shore swell from these 25-30ft seas?
Hi Don, I think it's hard to apply the hard and fast rules used for common swell producing storms, to Tropical Cyclones regarding open ocean swell height and decay rates.
As you know the strongest winds and highest seas are only over a relatively small area of ocean, I think you could probably look at the overall sea state being more in the 20-25ft range.
I don't calculate swell heights using any equations or calculations regarding swell decay, it's more an inbuilt knowledge base from looking at thousands of storms over many years.
I could see 6ft sets being a bit possibility but as a general forecast looking at the distance and scope of Evan, I think 4-5ft (as you agree) is a fair forecast.
Thanks Craig. I was always under the impression though that once a swell is generated (irrespective of source) it's travel and decay are the same irrespective of how it was created. So if the swell source is generating 20-25ft or 25-30ft then the same rules of swell period and decay apply? Is this not the case?
And I'm thinking we could easily see inconsistent 6ft sets come Thursday, possibly bigger if my calcs come to fruition?
I have never really looked too closely into swell decay rates sorry Don. But just thinking on the fly, I would think that even though there could be some 25-30ft seas over a small region of ocean, the energy in that spectrum will be so acute that it would arrive as those rare bigger 'bomb' sets and not represent the swell as a whole. Ie the swell could be a 'consistent' (relatively) 4-5ft with 6ft bombs every half-one hour.
If there was a greater region of 25-30kt seas then this would result in a more consistent swell in the upper range, but this is not the case.
There has to be some difference between a large area of 25-30ft seas compared to a compact area of 25-30ft seas in a general 20-25ft sea state in regards to swell signature and characteristics if you get my drift.
ive always wondered about this too, as arent the highest winds near the center already working on a already developed sea state (thats if it moves slow enough) due to the high below the cyclone? This high has been there for a good week+ so the sea state should be rockin. So, in theory, the height should be larger and the swell just continues to constantly change direction?
A couple of points worth considering - until yesterday, TC Evan was predominantly outside of our swell window due to the shadowing effects of the Fijian archipelago (sure, it's not a complete block but these islands would filter a considerable amount of swell energy).
Also, some of the last OSCAT returns show that the strongest winds were westerlies on the northern flank of the cyclone (ie aimed away from the Australian coastline).
Lastly, the noted regional wave heights in JTWC reports (ie "maximum significant wave height 40 feet") is derived from a wave forecast algorithm developed by the FNMOC/NCEP. However it only relates to the local sea state in the near vicinity of the cyclone, where the wave heights are directly proportional to maximum wind speed at the centre of the cyclone. This is used as a "forecast aid for ship routing and shore sites with assets affected by high seas" - more info here:
http://www.onr.navy.mil/reports/FY09/mmsampso.pdf
However, the small diameter of TC Evan and the large travel distance to the NSW/Qld coast means that there is a significant loss of swell size once the energy reaches our shores. Our model data is showing around 1.6m @ 13 seconds from this system - Craig and I think we may see slightly larger periods during the initial stages of the swell's arrival - but the supporting wind field around TC Evan is unlikely to generate a major swell event. As such we feel confident that 4-5ft in SE Qld is on the money.
I'm not expecting any noticeable swell from this system to reach southern NSW, certainly nothing above 2 feet anyway. The cyclone is barely visible in the synoptic charts it's that far away, and then it looks to travel down the wrong side of NZ as it heads south. Feb/March/April are more likely to produce the goods with warmer ocean temps in the coral sea and northern tasman.
"Feb/March/April are more likely to produce the goods with warmer ocean temps in the coral sea and northern tasman."
Yeah, it's fairly early in the season for a TC but the water temps are warm enough now. TC Evan wouldn't exist if they weren't. What ol' Evan is really missing is a cradling high to establish a pressure gradient and a large area of strong winds. As it is Evan is a mere pinprick of a storm.
Of course the folk in Samoa and Fiji wouldn't say so but I'm speaking in terms of swell producing ability.
Theres no forecast for this but is it possible, that the cyclone moves west towards trough of low pressure running up through the gulf. Its contrary to the polar movement of the system but on the BoM forecast there is also a high pressure coming in to block the Tasman. If this gets wedged then its game on
"Our model data is showing around 1.6m @ 13 seconds from this system". Ben, just curious as to the resolution of your model? ie, with such a compact core, does it actually pick up the core sea state of a tropical cyclone?
"Also, some of the last OSCAT returns show that the strongest winds were westerlies on the northern flank of the cyclone (ie aimed away from the Australian coastline)."
Most of the wind satellite observations that I can see have missed TC Evan, so going on the 12z GFS forecast run, the strongest winds are actually progged to be on the S/SE flank as TC Evan skirts across the NW flank of the high pressure system east of NZ.
Unfortunately the chances of that happening are near nil sorry Mick, especially with most of the model guidance indicating the low will weaken over New Zealand and then drift east.
EC shows the low creeping into the Tasman, but with no significant ridge to lean against we won't see any maxing swell even if this is the outcome.
And scoopmaster, I'm certain you'll see sets over 2ft from this system, especially into Sunday/Monday as the secondary long-range pulse fills in.
Oh and Don, latest updates are looking at 1.7-1.8m @ 13.4s up your way overnight Thursday,
Here's the OSCAT link Don: http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/oscat_images/day_golf/zooms/WMBas283.png
ASCAT passed from this morning picked it up:
http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/cur_25km_TEST/zooms/WMBd...
http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/cur_25km_TEST/zooms/WMBd...
Yeah that's a much better pass. Fetch length is still very short though, around 100km or thereabouts on the windward side of Kandavu.
As I said before, I do think the models are likely to be slightly under-representing peak swell periods however I can't see it translating to anything much above what Craig's already forecasting.
Craig I can assure you I won't be seeing any sets from this system. With moderate north east winds predicted sunday/monday locally, it doesn't take an expert to deduce that even if the swell muscles up to 4 foot it's not going to be anything better than bumpy closeouts on offer in semi-protected northern corners.
Actually, I lied. I may sneak a look at the snapper rocks webcam just to look at the horrendous crowds and thank god I'm not out there!
I just realised that I literally cannot remember the last surf I had. I can recall buying a new helmet cam expecting waves the following day but the expected 3-4' s swell was more like 2 foot and very weak looking. It must be around 3 months now, maybe longer...
You haven't surfed for three months yet you thank God you're not surfing Snapper?
Gimme crowds over abject flatness any day.
Nah Scoopmaster on the money, swell won't get into Batemans Bay
Nope I'll take flatness any day. If I paddle out in the middle of a crowd and catch the wave of my life, I still won't be going home thinking how much I enjoyed that surf.
Eh?
Other than Superbank / Burleigh / Noosa, I'm strugling to think of anywhere in SEQLD I'd call croweded. I suppose weekends / Public holidays can be a bit iffy but otherwise...
Also anything south of the border tends to have a few empties...
looks to be pretty slow moving now and meandering quite a bit.
Scoopmaster,drop me a line if you want to go for a surf sometime.What do you mean no surf in 3 months? Ok I agree it ain't been perfect but in that time I've had plenty of surfs at 3ft and clean...better than nothing.Yeah it ain't 6ft but it beats not surfing at all.
Well, the Qld BOM aren't expecting any cyclone swell to arrive Thursday. Their latest forecast (updated at 4:30am) says there'll be little change between today and tomorrow:
DOUBLE ISLAND POINT TO POINT DANGER
Wednesday until midnight: Swell: Less than 1.5 metres.
Thursday: Swell: Less than 1.5 metres.
I'm not saying there's been no waves for 3 months..... more that I haven't had the opportunity to surf often by the time i work mon-fri and some weekends and share a car with the wife. As a bodyboarder i only enjoy reef breaks, and there's only a handful that I even bother to check anymore, as I know the rest will be too crowded on weekends.
Only you can change your situation scoopmaster. Back to the cyclone swell bring on Friday arvo..plenty of places should be nice! I know one place near you that will pump and does receive long range north-east swell.
Even more interesting than the Qld BOM's forecast is the NSW BOM. They're forecasting 'Dangerous Surf Conditions' for the entire NSW coast tomorrow and Friday (so, Dangerous Surf conditions start at the border? This is one of the many problems the BOM faces with adjacent forecasting regions serviced by different RFCs).
And scoopmaster, the BOM are forecasting 'Dangerous Surf' right down to Eden. Here's the text from Byron, Sydney and Eden, issued at 4:10am today:
Byron Coast
Forecast for Wednesday until midnight
Swell: Easterly about 1.5 metres.
Thursday 20 December
Swell: Easterly 1 to 2 metres. Large swells breaking dangerously close inshore.
Friday 21 December
Swell: Easterly 2 metres. Large swells breaking dangerously close inshore.
Sydney Coast
Forecast for Wednesday until midnight
Swell: Easterly about 1.5 metres.
Thursday 20 December
Swell: Easterly 1 to 2 metres: Large swells breaking dangerously close inshore.
Friday 21 December
Swell: Northeasterly 2 metres tending easterly from the morning. Large swells breaking dangerously close inshore.
Eden Coast
Forecast for Wednesday until midnight
Swell: Easterly about 1 metre.
Thursday 20 December
Swell: Northeasterly 1 to 2 metres. Large swells breaking dangerously close inshore.
Friday 21 December
Swell: Northeasterly 2 metres. Large swells breaking dangerously close inshore.
Fizzle fizzle. Evans a dud for serious swell, but active sea state will keep some action rollin in.
Phil Duncan does a great weather video. Check it I'm biased.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/weather-watch/news/video.cfm?c_id=1501977&gal_...
@scoopmaster there is a reef break sth coast that only breaks when everywhere else is flat, its a good wave to have a gut slide on so theres no excuse. esp when its a 40min scenic walk in, and it would have been good all spring including weekends. The locals keep it quiet so I'm not giving any more details.
Yet another example of the 'Cyclones and Swell' myth.
"While it's true that cyclones may create great waves the odds of them doing that are actually very low. Simply having a cyclone in the swell window doesn't ensure good waves. For that to happen there has to be a set of associated weather phenomena also occurring and the cyclone has to be acting in a particular manner."
More here:
http://www.swellnet.com.au/news/2157-mythbusting-cyclones-and-swell
Stu, I don't really understand what you're trying to say with your post above? Are you saying we won't get swell from Evan? The slow moving nature of Evan will certainly mean we'll see swell from this puppy, and with it (extra-tropical transition) slowly tracking down to the top of NZ and squeezing up against the high, it means we've got a sustained duration headed our way. Yes it's not a cyclone by then, but I believe, the peak of the cyclone swell should arrive tomorrow (in SE Qld) with solid, but inconsistent sets around 6ft/6ft+ at open beaches more so around mid-late morning.
Again, not a bad Ascat pass:
http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/cur_25km_TEST/zooms/WMBa...
But check out the fetch on the SE side of her....I'm liking the looks of this.
http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/cur_25km_TEST/zooms/WMBd...
As Poncho has said, potentially already working on a reasonably active sea state from the semi stationary high pressure system to the east of NZ.
Hi Don, I could easily see the swell peaking late tomorrow instead of early Friday but I have to say I don't think the swell will be anywhere near its peak around mid-late morning.
Be an interesting day keeping an eye on the buoys and cams.
Given the long distance from the source, my calcuations are highly sensitive as to what swell period you assume this swell peak will have.
So from the hindcasting models and using my calculations, I think the peak of this swell will arrive sometime between 10am-4pm Thursday, so it's slightly later that what I was alluding to above with mid late morning.
Let's see what pans out.
What's your model saying Craig? I assume from your forecast it's saying Friday morning sometime?
Hi Don, it's hard to discern the peak as the swell trains from a distant trade-swell combine with the new cyclone swell at about 3pm and boost the swell from 1m @ 14.2s to 1.5m @ 14s. This then climbs to a peak overnight to [email protected] before easing at dawn Friday from 1.7 @ 13.3s.
That's why it seems totally plausible for the peak to occur later tomorrow rather than Friday morning, but I think it may actually be overnight.
Winds look pretty average for QLD thursday friday though, unless Don's got a secret spot.
Bay of Plenty in NZ forecasting 6-8m swells from the remnants of Evan.
I have found ACCESS and seabreeze to be pretty accurate for the timing and trend of SWELLS. Last swell on the Sunny Coast for example, both picked Wed arvo/Thurs morn to be the biggest. At Moffats, there was a peak in SURF heights on Wed arvo (bumpy 4ft+). I Was there Thurs but not Friday morn unfortunately, when reports were 3-5ft. It wound back from there over the weekend I reckon. Although I didn't actually paddle out at Moffs, it looked smaller and elsewhere was not pushing 4ft. Swellnet and Coastals had forecast a building trend to Sat/Sun.
So for this one...
Seabreeze: Peak in 'size' early Fri & again early Sun.
ACCESS/AUSWAVE/BoM: Peak in 'size' early Fri & stronger/larger peak again on early Sun. (Sea height, primary swell and swell train arrival wise).
Stormsurfing.com: Thurs arvo swell train arrival. Peak surf size late Thurs and lat Sat.
That's what I go by, as well as the two human forecast sites..
Anything from the east or nor-east with a bit of period to it is worth looking forward to.Many places return from hibernation.If it only ends up head high...ah well still better than an acute south swell many times larger sailing on by.
so true redsands, we have seen way too many south swells roll straight by this year.
Don, maybe you can work backwards from this event to end up with some sort of ratio to apply to your wave calcs and models you use for the next cyclone and keep refining?
Thanks Poncho. I do do a lot of hindcasting, when I have the time, and previously my calcs have been not too far off with arrival times (swell heights still require some refinement as my calcs tend to overestimate these somewhat). But as I said above, with such high swell periods, and such a long distance to travel for this swell, it's a tough one as you only have to be out marginally on your swell period estimates and bingo, the swell arrives some 6-8hrs later!!!
I'm a bit worried now though that the wave buoys aren't showing any signs of forerunners, cause if my calcs are to come to fruition then forerunners need to be appearing rather soon!! :(
Craig might be more on the money with this one, which is in line with what the majority of the swell models are showing, but I reckon the fetch just after TC Evan hit Fiji did produce something aimed this way, but perhaps given it was likely to not be working on the already active sea state (given it's close proximity to Fiji) then my calcs are struggling to come to fruition.
a few models I have seen have really slowed down the southward movement of Evan, might produce quite a few days of smaller surf in the
2-3ft+ range. Just need the surface conditions to play ball
OK, the Qld BOM have upgraded their forecast for today (updated 4:30am this morning):
DOUBLE ISLAND POINT TO POINT DANGER
Thursday until midnight: Swell: E'ly 1.5 to 2.0 metres developing.
Friday: Swell: E'ly 1.5 to 2 metres.
And also on the 'Southeast Coast Forecast'
Forecast for Thursday: Powerful surf developing on exposed beaches.
Friday: Powerful surf about exposed beaches.
Meanwhile the NSW BOM have a Dangerous Surf Warning across all NSW coasts from this morning through Sunday. This is the line from the Sydney, Newcastle and Wollongong forecasts:
"Dangerous surf conditions, hazardous for coastal activities such as swimming, surfing and rock fishing, are expected."
I just checked the surf on the Northern Beaches and it's a weak windswell around 1-2ft tops. It's unlikely that we'll see 'Dangerous Surf Conditions' here by the end of the day.
I've just done a sweep of the Qld and NSW buoys and right now there is no sign of the leading edge whatsoever (latest data ~4:30am). The surf also looks tiny on our D'Bah surfcam too.
The NSW BOM are generally very cautious any time there is even a chance of some groundswell, especially in the warmer months of the year. They issue dangerous surf warnings at the drop of a hat to cover their behind from all the swimmers and rock fishermen that don't bother to assess the conditions before venturing out. Experienced surfers should totally ignore dangerous surf conditions warnings, and instead look at the swell size. Is 2 metres dangerous? Not for anyone that's surfed a bit.
Two metres isn't dangerous for surfers but it can be for rock fishermen, especially if the swell is very inconsistent such as this swell will be. If the largest sets are only hitting every twenty minutes fisherman can get lulled into a false sense of security and venture onto ledges they think are safe only to have them intermittently swamped.
Depending on the location, a 2 metre swell with 16 second periods could definitely be considered 'dangerous' for many intermediate surfers.
The problem with today's DSW is that it echoes the 'boy who cried wolf' scenario. General punters at the beach today may dismiss future warnings, based on today's no-show.
Well, it looks like it's back to the drawing board for me today!!! :(
Not even forerunners in the water as yet.
NSW BOM updated their forecast at 9:20am, adding "..are expected to develop" to the end of today's Dangerous Surf Warning.
Still nothing showing anywhere on the East Coast as of yet. I suspect we'll see the leading edge of around 15 seconds (give or take) showing in the next two or three hours, however the bulk of the swell won't fill into later today in SE Qld and NNSW.
first signs starting to show on the brisbane derm wave buoy with a direction change and swell period starting to rise
Nah, that's not the new swell poncholarpez. Just background noise.
Ben/Stu, I assume you've seen the criteria for the BOM wave and surf warnings?
A lot of it has to do with periods, as it was found that drownings occurred primarily (3/4s of the time) when waves were in the 1.5-2.5m range, but with long periods (and rising tides).
The criteria is below, it is a few years old (2007) so it may have been revised. Julie Evans (BOM) did the analysis
Hsig(m) Peak Period (S) Angle of incidence Alert Status
> 5 na Onshore range Damaging wave warning
> 4 na Onshore range Dangerous wave alert
3 - 4 > = 10 Onshore range Dangerous wave alert
2.5 - 3 > = 12 Any Dangerous wave alert
2 – 2.5 > = 14 Any Dangerous wave alert
Dave, that doesn't quite make sense. Are the bottom two disregarding angle of incidence, while the top three need to be from say 045 to 135 deg?
Dave, I've been in touch with Julie over the years about this matter as I've had ongoing concerns about their DSWs. I also feel that their DSW criteria is slightly flawed (and have conveyed this information to them, as well as SLSA).
In any case, how did today trigger a DSW across the NSW coast, in particular the southern half of the state? Based on the criteria above, today's model guidance fell well short of the lowest threshold (Hsig between 2-2.5m, Tp 14 seconds or greater). In fact, I'm reasonably certain that tomorrow's data also falls below this threshold. That being said I do believe a DSW should be in place for tomorrow.
Part of the problem is also in the communication of this information. A 'one size fits all' approach may not necessarily be the best fit, as tomorrow's surf probably won't be deemed 'dangerous' by surfers or even regular beachgoers - however its characteristics are very likely to be of great risk to rock fishermen.
Several RFCs of the BOM have alternated various phrases regarding DSWs over the last few years - I think the NSW BOM's existing one is slightly misleading, and also slightly confusing in a grammatical sense ("Large swells breaking dangerously close inshore" - well, how about waves breaking offshore - are they not as dangerous?).
However, the Qld BOM have adopted a new phrase (which I saw for the first time today) - "Powerful surf about exposed beaches". This is very clear and concise, and a good choice for the situation IMO.
That being said, a much smaller percentage of the SE Qld coastline consists of rock platforms (ideal for fishing) so unlike NSW there may not be quite as many unique coastal user groups to cater for with each and every warning.
mitchvg, you're correct. This is one of the flaws of the existing system.
Yes Mitch, what Ben said.
Ben, I agree. I've had some similar conversations.
Part of it is the fact that they've based everything on coronial records of rockfishing drownings. This introduces a bias towards managing for rockfishing rather than other coastal uses. Whilst a higher proportion of people die rockfishing (and it is the highest risk activity in some states),they aren't the largest user group
despite all the banter surrounding this swell from TC Evan, BOM shows a significant swell for sydney on wednesday next week. not very good at interpereting these maps but the forecast says waves will be 2-2.5 m on wednesday. Although it appears winds will be onshore
Boxing day doesn't look to have anything other than fading remnants of the windswell produced by the southerly change due on Christmas day. I'd be guessing 2-3' from the south with SE/NE winds.
Surf Life Saving Australia’s 2012 National Coastal Safety Report has confirmed a rise in coastal drowning deaths in 2011-12 with 119 confirmed coastal drowning deaths nationally, an increase from 70 in 2010-11. This is also well above the eight year average of 92.
here is the link
http://sls.com.au/sites/sls.com.au/files/NCSR_2012_LR.pdf
Gee, a few signs of some forerunners wouldn't go astray either!!! :(
Nothing happening up there, eh Don?
No there's not a lot happening Stu. And let's just say I made a rather embarrassing elementary mistake with my calcs, but we're back on track now.
Although with no sign of forerunners yet, I think Craig might even be getting a little worried?
Although latest Byron buoy readings are showing something a little more promising.
Byron Bay = 15 sec forerunners
http://new.mhl.nsw.gov.au/data/realtime/wave/Stn-byronbay
arent the forerunners sposed to be smaller in period than the main part of the swell?
Forerunners are the leading edge of the swell and are always the highest in period as they travel fastest through the water and arrive earlier than the main swell event.
Gawd, just saw a reporter on the Today show try and explain today's dangerous surf conditions in South East Qld (how this for a mixed message - she said the dangerous conditions extended from the Sunshine Coast just to the border! So Channel 9 viewers in NSW must be breathing a sigh of relief...).
Apparently today's conditions are unusual because the time between the swells is 12-14 seconds, which is "double what we usually see" (huh?). This meant that the cyclone was sending over a "powerful surge". Etc etc.
I'm sure the message was probably received that the beach is dangerous today, but I think their attempt to describe the reasons behind the beach warning will further confuse people. And saying the warning extended only to the Qld/NSW border was a mistake.
And here's an associated article from the SMH, quoting the NSW BOM.
I really can't see this becoming a 'large swell event' as the general public would expect from such publicity.
And for all of the talk about swell periods/distant swells etc - this event is very ordinary, and could be expected every other week during winter, somewhere on the East Coast.
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/surf-warning-as-large-swells-t...
BOM should stick to the weather and leave ocean analysis to people such as yourselves.It's always false to the point where I think they have no idea what so ever.The scary part is the people who are novices in ocean and beach conditions and generally don't surf do not get any more educated and thus drownings will continue.There has been many many occasions where in summer a big se swell is running,beaches are maxed out with rips all over the place and no warnings at all.You would think there is a tsunami arriving today the way they are carrying on.
sorry guys, think I was getting slightly confused, lol. I went looking for your article of swell trains as it explains it pretty well in there.
So what's the size like up there now? Manly is a solid straight but inconsistent 3-4ft now.
3ft mess down here
Just heard on the wireless reported drowning death of a female at Brunswick Heads. She reportedly got into trouble in the surf and could not be revived. As usual its reported as an unpatrolled area
So sad to hear Mick, but it happens nearly every time with these long period swell events :(
Yep Craig - Surf in Manly is 4 foot closing out burgers. Good 4-5 wave sets every 10 or so mins with some energy - looks like its pumping in SA!!!
I'm not really into clubbies but if that lady swam between the flags somewhere she would still be alive..hopefully there is no more over the weekend.
The tragedy in Brunswick just put a twist in Today's reporting of SE QLD being the only danger zone.
Tomorrows gonna be a good day for the dawnie cause it'll be a zoo by 9am.
Yeah that is tragic. It's worth pointing out that the BOM did have a DSW out for the Northern NSW coast (even though conditions seemed to be under that of a typical DSW threshold), so I suspect the drowning may have been a terrible coincidence.
Theres bugger all on the online news feeds regarding the drowning...seems every reporter has knocked it on the head and gone for christmas lunch. I specifically heard "got caught out by the surf..." so it maybe cause and effect of this groundswell but it is too early to tell. It will be on the free to air networks but they hardly get the facts right
This is the article I saw, Mick: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-12-21/woman-drowns-at-nsw-beach/4439902
Sunny was cooking, if you were looking ;-)
Heard the duty forecaster on ABC Local radio this arvo too btw, he pretty much said what thermalben said. Nothing huge, but may catch out rock fisherman...
Interesting - the Qld BOM have pulled any reference to 'powerful swells', but the NSW BOM still have a DSW for all NSW coasts between Byron and Eden, until tomorrow night.
So, 'Dangerous Surf Conditions' must begin at Letitia Spit and extend southwards today.
This swell has been pretty underwhelming, hopefully will improve over the next day or 2.
Still some 3-4ft sets coming in this morning on the Northern Beaches (a little bigger than I reported at 6:30am). Super glassy too and very fun. But very crowded.
I agree goldy123, it has been very underwhelming and disappointing on the Gold Coast. It looks like the fetch was mainly aimed towards Southern NSW as a whole, and shows how tricky and also sometimes (as Stu has linked to) how average cyclone swells can be compared to that trade-swell say, you guys saw last week.
I was on the mid-north coast and certain backbeaches were firing 4-6ft for that trade-wind/easterly dip swell.
On Fri sets quickly muscled into a solid but incon 6ft+ and I saw a three wave 8ft bomb set with a super light S/SW flow.
Up here on the far north coast it's a wobbly but solid 3-5 with the very,very rare bigger bomb set.
Pretty stoked with both swells so far and the next monsoonal surge focussed on the PNG/Solomons area is showing plenty of promise.
So, put me in the pro-cyclone camp.
3 days into a swell with plenty left to come.
Surfed smoking 6ft lefts then a right point Fri under optimum condys.
Love that SW drift in from the SPCZ......hopefully that sets the tone for cyclone tracks this season.
That's good to hear Steve, I was worried that the forecast came in way under, but after talking with a few people it looks to have been not far off forecast. Cheers for the update.
Love the sound of a monsoonal surge. Do u mean NE flow of tradewinds or from the s focussed on PNG??
Pretty wobbly on the northern beaches of Sydney although combo of NE wind and NE swell leaves a few places that were working. Friday arvo was when the swell was at its largese, I have heard that from other crew that mid north coast has been alltime so happy holidays if u were there
Seve's talking about the tropical developments south of the Solomons and then the high likelihood of another Tropical Cyclone forming.
For me this doesn't look to be a good swell producer at all for anyone until it moves south of New Cal, if it forms at all.
We'll keep a close eye on this one!
Yes, early days for any call.
And PNG/Solomons systems are at a disadvantage wrt to their position in the swell window.......but early indications don't look too bad.
A large high may move into a favourable position late this year which may at the least provide enough tradewind swell to kick the points over, as well as provide a cradle for any TD or TC drifting south.
we'll see.
The south facin coasts of solomans and png are rarely surfed and largely undiscovered. Be interested in this swell generation. A large tasman high also generates a tradewind swell for Fiji so it makes sense that it would also produce a SE fetch to solomansPNG. Be a real pattern when a strong El Nino kicks in??
Steve Would be the former forecaster and therefore a trustworthy reporter right...God damn Nthn NSW scores better than SEQ in Winter AND Summer. Although Friday morning was pretty effing good; if 4ft is head high, then yeah it actually hasn't really dropped below that where I've been surfing. It's just been onshore since Friday arvo.
The sets have been weird too. Coming more so in sets of sets if you know what I mean; like maybe 20 waves will come through with >10 being 'set size'. But the order of these >10 set size waves won't be right in the middle of the set, it might be the 2nd, 6th, 7th, 8th, 11th... then wait ages for the next 'set'. So yeah, not the best quality long range ground swell
GFS has run pretty wild with it.
I didn't see the way the models handled Evan......was there a clear-cut winner there that might establish primacy in terms of model accuracy for the season going forwards?
Steve, my recollection of Evan was that EC was onto it first (like in it's 8-10 day forecast range) and then it kinda lost it once the forecast got to within 5-7 days. Whereas GFS was not on the money in it's long range charts, but kinda nailed it around the 6-8 day mark and then was spot on pretty much closer to the time 3-5 day mark.
Here's some irony - from my vantage point, today is possibly showing some of the bigger waves in the Sydney region of the last five days. This is also confirmed by the MHL buoy data.
However following four consecutive days of 'Dangerous Surf Warnings', today is the first day since Thursday that doesn't have a DSW current.
Concur today is the biggest, just surfed Whaley and quite a few wash through sets. Eden buoy is biggest though so longer fetch??
Interesting ex TC Evan is forecast to straddle the west coast today of the NI. It then moves more into the Tasman xmas day and then gets hammered by a South West change.
Once it started moving S it went straight down. Usually the cyclones take a SE track.....any explanation???
Conditions are favourable for a new TC. BOM says Mitchell is the next name. Anyone putting a case of beer on Mitchell arriving before New Year?
The reason it drifted straight south was because of the synoptic setup. There was a blocking high to the north-east of New Zealand and this helped keep it within our swell window for so long.
Looking at the upper atmospheric setup and there was a strong upper ridge across the region which prevented any major cold fronts or other weather features to move in and push Evan off to the east.
Gonna be a close one but I think it will be named before the year is out, I'll put a 6 pack on it :D
Next question is track.
If it skirts the inside of Grand Terre as progged the pathetic cyclone naysayers will be wringing their hands while booking flights.
Media is reporting a 15 year old surfer missing on the North Coast NSW after going for a surf on Staurday. Seems this swell event while not big has caused some serious grief - 2 reported lives lost
That one might not have been related to surf though, Mick. According to the SMH, "a police statement says he may be travelling to Proston in Queensland".
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/missing-teen-fails-to-return-from-surfing-2012...
Also, it's an unfortunate fact that people often get in trouble in the water even when there's absolutely no swell running. Exhibit A being a tourist who drowned at West Beach (Adelaide) yesterday - zero swell, moderate to fresh offshore winds and temps in the mid twenties at the time of the incident:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-12-25/tourist-drowns-at-adelaide-beach/4...
Model runs are flip-flopping about whether this system runs down the inside or outside of Grand Terre.
If it comes inside, it looks like another strong but free-standing system delivering an Evan Mk2 style swell.
Fine.
Love these longer range pulsey swells.....sandbanks stay in prime condy and if you can duck and weave away from the crowd the paddle-outs are doable.
Today is the first time EC has come into alignment with GFS regarding the positioning of this tropical system (for discussion sakes I think we call it Mitchell as it's highly likely to be named a Tropical Cyclone).
Before today EC had Mitchell more towards Northern QLD and not taking GFS's path at all. So again it looks like GFS has pinned this system down 6-8 days out.
No further news on the 15 year old missing, maybe he just ran away. Tall bloke though 190cm.
Only problem with these long period swells allows everyone to get back into the lineup pretty easily..
For us punters its showing up on the BOM now as a tight little system, thats sitting pretty wide - Windguru got some tasty swells for QLd -Whats the latest prognosis??? Dropping South or South East??
Great New Years if you booked yourself into Noosa Heads!
Still a bit all over the shop Mick, but GFS and EC have the system moving over New Caledonia Wednesday/Thursday next week with GFS then showing a quick track away to the south-east, while EC has it meandering a bit.
It looks to be dependant on the strength of a Southern Ocean front moving under the country mid next week which will either push a ridge of high pressure into the Tasman, with Mitchell also being pushed off to the south-east, or vice versa.
Craig, based on the latest charts, this TC looks to form east of 160E, thus won't it come into Fiji Met's AOR and hence be called Freda, as opposed to the BOM's AOR and called Mitchell?
Good point Don, today's update has the system forming right on the 160deg longitudinal boundary between Australia and Fiji, but with it's current location being 162.3deg East and moving south-west it looks like Fiji will get to name this one.
Lol, I just copped the short forecast update and got a shock. Was expecting a change in the chart this morning sometime, that is quite a nice change though...
Good Morning Freda!!!
Indeed. This system looks unreal. I'll whip up a short article in the next hour or two (would be good to keep Freda commentary in the new article).
That was a relatively quick labour, was hoping for a boy - whats the forecast track?
A cyclone is like a crocodile...a few degrees difference can change its sex during incubation.
fiji govt weather bureau shows a good freda track map.....sth tending 5 deg sth east at 13 kmh.
anyone interested in the latest EC track?
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/fore...
Poncho, yes, saw that this morning...scary!!! But given GFS has been on the money so far, and it's the first EC run to show it, I'm not getting too worried at the moment!!
Ben/Craig, any enlightenment on what your models are predicting for this system? As my numbers are tending to indicate a peak different from the main models (and yes I have hopefully corrected my error from TC Evan!!!)
Also, anyone know how much the Great Barrier Reef dilutes these swells from the NE? I see there's a rather large expanse of reef way out there in the Coral Sea, which would impact on swell size somewhat.....even water depths would impact on this larger period swell.
yeah pretty intense hey Don. Wont be a TC by then but a very strong low. I have noticed the patterns shifting slightly in regards to the highs below the system. A few models are now moving towards the possibility of the longwave trough not being so intense and the surface highs not breaking apart so much as in previous runs. Will be very interesting to watch. I hope New Cal doesnt cop it on the head like Fiji did with Evan.
Just whipped up a quick analysis here (nothing too indepth - the more interesting stuff will happen once we get some quality Oscat/Ascat returns, and also once the models firm up the extratropical transition next week).
http://www.swellnet.com.au/news/3364-welcome-tropical-cyclone-freda
Twins!!!! A boy and a girl. Santa delivered.. On the synoptics some reasonable fronts crossing the southern regions and Mitchell will be absorbed. Theres potential for a big high developing Tuesday which will cradle all the lows to the north. Guess remnants of Mitchell will cross country creating serious rain. With all those lows Freda may get sucked into the coast as per the EC. What are the chances of that???
Freda such a good name for a cyclone... just like a german mistress shes going to cause chaos - its forecast to go Cat 3 and swing to New Caledonia.
Any thoughts for this season...?
Don't drive drunk.
Geez you got me all excited when the forum popped up again. Bloody welly!
YES Welly you tease.............ye ha I thought when I saw the heading.......some action happening out in the N.E. waters.....you bugger.
Haha, the Madden-Julian Oscillation is out in the Indian Ocean and with a bit of strength. This will likely cause the formation of a tropical cyclone or two in that ocean basin.
Forecasts have the MJO moving across our north over the coming week but while weakening which isn't great for cyclone potential.
Holy thread revival batman!!!
I too was excited when I saw the title of this thread....then looked at the date at the top!!!