Winter Swells Ignite Across Southern States
Victorian surfers: Let's face it, the last eighteen months have been pretty dismal.
Sure, there have been pockets of good surf here and there, but the winter of 2011 didn't really deliver, last summer was terrible, and to date the winter season of 2012 hasn't been much better.
But there is good news ahead. The much discussed Long Wave Trough (info here) is about to enter a strengthening phase in the Southern Ocean, and we're looking at two to three weeks of heavy swell activity for the southern states.
This sustained period of solid swells is due to kick off early next week, as a series of nodes - amplifications of the Long Wave Trough - intensify and then stall throughout the Great Australia Bight. The strongest intensification is forecast to occur late next week, resulting in a solid round of surf early in the following weekend.
What makes next week's patterns so special is that the Long Wave Trough is expected to cover a much greater longitudinal (west to east) area than previous systems. This means that the westerly gales associated with the Long Wave Trough will work across nearly 5000km of ocean - extending from the sub-Antarctic Heard Island right up to the Great Australian Bight. Such synoptic setups are quite uncommon and help contribute to the longevity of the overall swell event.
The Long Wave Trough is an upper atmospheric 'wave' which influences the weather patterns at the Earth's surface, by steering storms and frontal systems along specific corridors. In previous articles we've pointed out the role the Long Wave Trough plays in delivering large and prolonged swell episodes to Victoria, New South Wales, Fiji and even Tahiti.
While an initial pulse of new swell is expected around Monday, it won't be until next Friday that we'll see larger swells impacting the southern states, originating from the strongest intensification of the Long Wave Trough. From here on we should see wave heights ebbing and pulsing for at least another week depending on how long the Long Wave Trough stalls in the region. //CRAIG BROKENSHA
Comments
thanks Craig. Will this pattern have any related impact on the systems/pattern (swell) effecting southern qld? I have a naiive hunch that if it's pumping down there it will be lame up in qld. I'm heading there next week.....
So does that mean we will get associated westerly wind on the southern coast?
Pensky, it looks like you could get lucky as there's a good chance that a Tasman Low will form next week. If it's too far south SE Qld will miss a lot of size and it will be more a NSW swell event.
Wbat, going on from Pensky's answer, that Tasman Low could actually produce dicey S'ly winds across the Victorian and SA coast on Saturday as the big stuff peaks. It all depends on the Tasman Low now to whether local winds will cooperate.
We'll keep a close eye on it.
great thanks Craig
whens the long wave trough going to stall over the tasman and send some swell to sydney next?
We've got some SE swell on the way from late in the week onwards.
At this stage the best of it looks to push in during next week but the models are really divergent so you'll have to keep an eye on the forecast updates over the coming days.
The LWT will probably move into our swell window during mid next week, with S'ly swell arriving late in the week/following weekend but it's a bit too far down the track to say.
Craig,
Great waves down here today, well worth taking a day off work for. I've just read your latest forecast with the next swell hitting late Friday and peaking Saturday morning. How confident are you on that ? Your competitor site has a very diff forecast with just 3-4 feet and onshores on Saturday morning. They've got Thurs and Friday as the better days.
Any chance your forecast will change?
question...forecast today was 3 to 4 ft.....Bells was significantly bigger as was Winky, Torquay, etc....tomorrow 2 to 3 ft latest forecast ...are these hero size swell forecasts?
Ando I forecast a building trend to 3-5ft today and then 3-4ft tomorrow. Who's forecasting 2-3ft tomorrow?
And toptobottombells, this is one of the stronger frontal progressions of the year and Friday arvo/Saturday morning will be much bigger than 3-4ft. There are likely to be sets near 3-4ft in Western Port if that's any indication!
Ive got no qualms saying there was a couple of 8 foot bombs at bells today!!
Yes...mixed up Tuesday with Wednesday at 2 to 3 feet, BUT....7 feet plus boards were getting the best waves at Bells and Winky pop today and to me, it was way bigger than 3 to 5ft....3feet??? kiddies size...5 feet, starting to get solid just....it was a powerful solid swell this afternoon especially...
And the only way i know that is because i got a couple on the head... Doh!
Good on you Goofy foot...I agree 100%....too many crew underscore size and don't go out on limb in forecast and call it....Buoyweather pegged 10 feet wsw at 17 sec period for today....it was never going to be 3 feet plus at Bells on those numbers...Just IMO
Fellas, the Torquay forecast for today (issued three days ago, on Friday) was 'building to 3-5ft'. The morning report - with photos - came in at 3-4ft, so allowing for a further small increase this afternoon (say, to 4-5ft), then the forecast was correct. We've been watching our Torquay surfcam all afternoon and wave heights have matched our expectations (it's generally a foot or two smaller here than Bells).
Also, please note that Swellnet forecasters and reporters measure in 'surfers feet', which is different from 'wave face height in feet'. So, 3-5ft is head high to a couple of feet overhead.
We're more than happy to admit when we get it wrong, but all of the available information we have at this point in time (reports, photos, live surfcam vision) confirms that the surf peaked in the 4-5ft range this afternoon, as per our sizing expectations, and from some sources that we've used daily for over seven years. However if you have any photos that prove otherwise then please send 'em through! The more information, the better.
thermalben...Glen Casey was on like an 8 foot board at Winky all arvo, which was probably overkill but he got a lot of waves!...I'll get his take on the size and report back....it that was 3 to 5 feet at Bells, I been a chicken small wave surfer all my life.
Photos are better Ando! Everyone has a different way of measuring surf size; the important thing is that we use the same person day in day out (which is why we're confident in the strength of our reporting team, to back up our forecaster). This way, by using the same person every day, even if they undercall or overcall, at least they're consistent.
We really do appreciate the feedback though - this is why we love forecasting so much. So many curveballs to consider each and every day. So thanks for keeping us on our toes :)
And...not meaning to be critical Craig, just today was no way 3 feet to 5 feet...again IMO...it was 6 to 8 feet solid ground swell. I don't envy swell forecasters, especially Bells with direction paying such a massive role..but I thought the buoy weather numbers were showing some seriously good solid waves today -- I like it when the forecaster is prepared to talk it up and occasional get the up talk wrong rather than play conservative size...which I reckon a lot do...not just this site...generically...which might also be why I like buoy weather because it spits out the numbers and directions and increasingly, the numbers don't seem to be lying.
I dont call waves by face height either thermal and i totally agree with you that a 3 foot wave is head high, 6 ft is double overhead etc but i saw a guy on his backhand on a mick pierce 8ft gun at the bottom of a wave today at bells when i was paddling back out and you could have stacked a normal guy on his shoulders and then a dwarf on that guys shoulders and the top of the wave would have been level with the little mans eyes! Im not saying every set was that size but ill call that an eight footer every day of the week.
Unreal Goofyfoot, thanks for clarifying that.
Again, not being critical 'cause I love your forecasts swell net...but some feedback..which is always IMO...Torquay Point is rarely a a foot smaller than Bells...and on a good ground swell is significantly smaller (whatever that means in feet) and some of the Mal riders were calling Torquay Point 5 feet and solid thick swell this afternoon....overall...it wasn't big big today...but it was a well lined solid swell and i reckon fitted the old time call of 6 to 8 and pumping
Whatever size you want to call it, when Bells is solid and clean its a damn fun joint to surf!
Can't argue with you there!
Thanks for the feedback ando and goofyfoot - can't wait to see how the rest of the week pans out. It's a really exciting progression of weather sytems and there's certainly a heck of a lot more unreal waves to come.
Hi Ando,
The buoyweather numbers are just spit out by a computer program and you can't use these numbers alone to tell how big it is without tracking the storm.
For example there's a big difference between a 10ft swell at 10 seconds from the SW and a 10ft swell at 18 seconds from the SW. The second being much larger and different from the former even though the numbers are the same.
As Ben said, no matter how big it was, it was a great day of surfing and there's plenty more to come!
There's a lot of salty crew following buoy weather and the spit out numbers include period , direction and feet estimates...from what i saw today the numbers spat out were spot on and those numbers held strong for days on end leading in.
" goofyfoot
about 3 hours
I dont call waves by face height either thermal and i totally agree with you that a 3 foot wave is head high, 6 ft is double overhead etc but i saw a guy on his backhand on a mick pierce 8ft gun at the bottom of a wave today at bells when i was paddling back out and you could have stacked a normal guy on his shoulders and then a dwarf on that guys shoulders and the top of the wave would have been level with the little mans eyes! Im not saying every set was that size but ill call that an eight footer every day of the week. "
Goof ,
Mate i didn't Surf today , so it wasn't me , and i don't wanna know .... ( just kidding )
But i would suggest that parts of this swell would have been above the 17sec . interval . Try to remember to count a few of the Intervals in different sets ( reminder to use something stationary as your reference ) , but this will give you the low down on any intermixing or rogue Pulses . the longer period and direction give's Unique conditions to that part of the world .
Also going on what you and Ando have thankfully provided , i would suggest that Friday / Sat maybe borderline Unsurfable . In which i doubt ( can't really count the times thats happened lately ) at this stage , but ya never know , but if so , ya might wanna sit that out . hhehehe
Ando , i tend to check Buoyweather also at times , and maybe discuss with the likes of Craig , Ben or whoever is trained knowlegable at certain times . But you'll find that those same salty dogs are a Product of the " MSLP Charts " era , and hence that site , and many others with broad range surface conditions are part of " their " daily forecast diet . All info is handy , . F&$% at certain places just lookin at the speed of the Clouds and what direction can give you an insight to swell peaks and frontal wind arrival times.
So Goof , mate . Start studying the Swell intervals , more so when you look to " Greener " pastures , ( as we have previously discussed ;-) . They can be extremely valuable when you start stacking midgets' on towers of men !!!!! lol
Brutus ??? Size please ....
OK, well, I reckon we have a good test case for Buoyweather tomorrow - It's predicting a reasonably solid swell, probably building in the afternoon I think 11 feet at 16 sec WSW...I'd read that as bigger than 2 to 3+ feet surf being forecast here...worth analysing, 2 to 3 feet is minimum size to surf Bells...absolute minimum. Lets see.
I agree, it'll be an interesting test. How about a specific size call then?
You said yesterday's BW forecast was 10 feet WSW at 17 sec. Tomorrow is 1ft bigger with one second less period. How big do you think it'll be relative to yesterday?
Dwarf or no dwarf??
i reckon there's cases for and against Buoyweather at certain times . but i'd like to keep them to myself for now .
Although i will say that GFS seems to be outgunning ECWMF in the Models stakes in the last few weeks / months . As Craig mentioned , there has been a stack of Model divergence of late . And i would put some of it down to the Models not dealing to well with a New Negative PDO period , coupled with a chance that the Ocean - Atmosphere ( ENSO )correlation has de-coupled of late .
But enuf jargon , lets start betting /battling size calls again . heheheh
seen a few nice photo's from around the traps ( SA,VIC,TAS ) for yesty, bring on Sat .
Buoyweather...lol...lets forecast like its 1999.
Couple of 5 foot sets were I was yesterday (further south than Bells...shhh) and a bit dubious on 8 foot calls at Bells. Haven't heard any myself except on here.
Latest model updates are in and there's been a slight upgrade in the intensity and size of the frontal progression.
Looks like we'll see easy 6-8ft sets during the peak of the swell on the Surf Coast with the odd bigger sneaker rolling through. It's a very very impressive swell event coming up!
Interesting to see coastalwatch calling 4-6ft waves on the beaches on saturday when you guys are calling pretty much double that. Do the different models/information that both websites would use to predict swells really vary that much? I realise trying to predict anything to do with the weather is tricky but i wouldn't have thought that there could be that much of a varying forecast. Sorry if that sounds like a novice question but im trying to learn as much about forecasting as possible! Swellnet always seems alot more accurate than other sites.
Forgot to add that im talking about vicco forecast!
Both websites manually interpret weather charts/information to produce their forecasts.
As such, the quality of each site's forecast is relative to the skill of the forecaster, rather than the weather models that may be used (because everyone has access to essentially the same model data).
As for other sites like MagicSeaweed, Surfline and Buoyweather - their forecasts (at least for Australia) are computer generated and have no level of Quality Control. I notice that MSW are (in my opinion) also majorly undercalling the Friday/Saturday event (their numbers are for 'wave face height').
For the record, each site's Torquay forecast for Saturday is (as updated today):
Swellnet: 6-8ft+ (surfers feet)
Coastalwatch: 2-4ft (surfers feet)
Magic Seaweed: 3-5ft (wave face feet, ie 'waist to shoulder high')
how bout a phone number where people can quickly mms you guys photos or video of sessions or waves that they have seen or surfed that day.as long as people are honest about dates of pics taken, folks can make up there own minds abouts wave size etc etc.the pics would also have to be clear enough to reproduce. easy to send phone pic rather than email.
gh ,
some places people get antsy enough when guys take photo's on proper camera's , knowing full well that they may not see the light of day in Public forums' let alone atleast the following day or whatever .
we wouldn't want crew going round stealing/smashing phones now would we. might get to the point when people get threatened for just ringin' the misses to say he'll be late home , in mistaken case of Phone misuse . LOL
atleast Goof's askin questions for his own intellectual purposes . what is it with people these days wnating instant answers /knowledge .... Patience Grasshopper . heheh
PS.
The winds are lookin a little flukey for "some" spots for Sat. Looks like the ridging may not be as strong that early in the weekend . Here's hoping for a clear night and morning land breezes .
Cheers ben, I gave up on msw ages ago. So they are calling saturday to be 1-3 (surfers) feet?? Slight difference! Sundays lookin good too for this side of the bay with north east windss early. All up its looking pretty exciting for this weekend in Vic!
@goofyfoot, just sayin' that since reading your 'dwarf' wave height reference the other day, I have been randomly cracking up. Best ever mate. #totallyleftoffield
And Ben, for the record:
Surfline: 8ft@16 seconds
Also, where does MSW show "wave face feet" forecasts? I thought they forecast similar to Surfline in that it's open ocean swell heights?
And whilst I note MSW does have it's quirks, I find it useful still so long as one has the forecast/break location calibrated against historical observations.
Hi Don, if you scroll down the page where it has their 3hourly forecast and hover over the size is tells you the size in terms of 'shoulder high', 'head high', 'overhead' etc.
Ando, how was Buoyweather's performance over the past 24-48 hours and what do you expect for the coming swell?
Just for the record here's what BW forecast for the point off the Surf Coast on Wednesday morning.
http://i132.photobucket.com/albums/q10/sasurfa1/Screenshot2012-07-18at10...
Keeping in mind reports on Wednesday morning came in at 2-3ft on the Surf Coast when BW had 4.5ft @ 15s.
The forecast for the peak of the coming swell is 4.9ft @ 16s, where I'm expecting 6-8ft sets.
With only 0.4m more in size and 1s increase in period I would find it hard if using BW as a rule to make out later Friday and early Saturday to be anything above 4-5ft let alone try and fit it to my forecast which is around three times the size of Wednesday morning.
I think this is where the pure model data can become confusing and useless unless one has analysed the swell generating storm over its entire lifespan.
Hi Craig,
What size swell are we likely to see at Phillip Island early Saturday morning?
Hi gbprophoto,
Phillip Island will be a touch smaller than the Mornington Peninsula with 8ft+ sets likely at Woolies and 6-8ft waves on the reefs early Saturday before dropping off during the day.
Thanks Craig,
Our eyes are on the reefs this weekend and should be pumping......yyyyeeewwwwwww!
I'm a little confused. Aren't Surfline and Buoyweather run by the same company?
And BW has changed it's forecast in it's latest run to mirror closely now to Surfline so I don't know how old that screenshot of your BW was Craig?
http://www.buoyweather.com/wxnav6.jsp?program=nww3BW1&grb=nww3®ion=VI...
BW isn't something i would invest huge amounts of time in when i was going to outlay money and time on travelling to wherever to surf. But it is like a number of different sites that I'll check from 1.5 weeks in advance . Combining everything is the key , and maybe a last minute ( yes don't pay money on a subscription ) 2 days out before changing plans ( ie not show up at work , get kids baby-sat , do some chores to keep in the good books ) . But as i've mentioned before , its just better to brag to mates that aren't local of what they're missing , without disclosing too much to the masses .... with a lineup shot ....
"http://s1126.photobucket.com/albums/l605/pfavarney/?action=view¤t=..."
Don, yes they are run by the same company. But their data points may be a little different here and there.
Craig....BW performance....and obviously it's ridiculously subjective because few people agree on wave size...but, that Monday afternoon swell at Bells was definely uo to 8 feet, cross checked and confirmed by excellent sources who do surf the place forever....so well done goofy foot for chiming in....then wednesday, your forecast was spot on....outshone BW as nothing of substance materialised...so 1 all on those...Thursday I'd rate a draw....morning showed swell...but for a lot of the day it was hidden under super high tides -- it was bigger that wednesday for sure...I'd say like 3 ft plus --- your fri/sat forecasts I'd rate the same..BW has 17 sec period swells...and decent size ---- but thats why i like checking you guys and BW...a combination of numbers and expert analysis....good mix....and as mentioned before, i like to see the expert analysis go out on a limb.....if you get it wrong by slightly overcalling it occasionally, to me thats ok...cheers!,
the real beauty of BW, I reckon, is for those who travel to regions where they don't incorporate expert local forecasting...Also, updating of BW --- I've been told BW is an automated site that updates more regularly than any of the other number modelled sites so it's current information is solid...updates constantly and being owned by Surfline, has some great expertise underpinning the whole thing -- so I'm reluctant to right it off and I know a few people who use it for surf/fishing and these guys live off the ocean and they swear by it...from a pure numbers perspective.
Ando, BW, like all of the other swell forecasting model sites, uses the GFS weather model as inputs. GFS models are updated at approx 3am, 9am, 3pm and 9pm on the east coast of Aus, and all of the swell forecasting model sites update at this time. I can't see BW updating more frequently than this, as it wouldn't have new GFS weather charts to use.
yep...one thing to come out of this analysis is Swellnet was way more on the ball which is good!
Can't see tomorrow getting to 8ft.
More like 5-6ft.
Wilba, just to be pedantic, the forecast is 6-8ft (rather than a straight 8ft), which offers a little more leeway.
However, Craig's down there right now now and surfed 4-6ft Bells a short while ago (the swell is on the build). With Cape Sorell still at least twelve hours away from peaking in size, I think 6-8ft is still a reasonable call for tomorrow.
Pumping weekend coming up! What's not to love about winter in the south!
The shrinkage...
Or not currently owning a heated vest !!!!!!
lucky i've got a bit of a winter condition ...
great job putting that pic in of down south on facebook through the week guys, i noticed that alot of Brassos reposted it, cant wait to be joined by a busload of brazilnuts next time its on, combined with all of the big wave wannabees at the moment trying to achieve something they think has never been done before, even though people have been doing it since the 60's. wow what a enjoyable surfing experience. for a website that tries to show they have some soul you are full of shit. promoting every swell event to kooks with no idea = guaranteed it will be a fucken circus and for what? you guys get a few more likes on fbook? sell a bit more advertising? great job you must be so proud of yourselves
Not very often ya see busloads of brazilians driving around the vicco coastline, i reckon you might be over reacting a tiny bit e.m. Dont think anyone said it was "down south" until you just did either..
every time you post pics someone names em in the comments. Seen plenty of Brassos in this region gf, also witnessed a car full of 8 brassos travelling through the E Peninsula before. why not stick to coverage of main areas like you have done before swellnet. if people wanna get adventurous let em work it our for themselves
If ever anyone name a sensitive place we delete it. It's the way it's always been and the way it will remain.
Sounds to me like you've got a heavy dose of paranoia, which is cool, it's a great match for your xenophobia.
Good night Eddie.
eddie,
i think your best efforts would be to discuss this with Ben Differding . He was the photographer in question . AGAIN .......
on a different note thought that was a nice photo of " unlucky point " peak .
but as for your mention of "Summer Bay " we all know that
" Neighbours should stay away from Home & Away " ......
Oh yeah , Ben the Photog, is based out of Melbourne . So maybe that should be your first port of call .
ha very funny stunet, your hilarious.
rcj, t ray and m cole are behind keeping things low key but what would they know, they must be xenophobic as well. good night
eddie, RCJ and TRay cop more shit whilst surfing Vic from 2 headed inbred retards like you than they have surfing North Shore for 30 years.
it's all in your mind. get help.
FYI it's guys like you and the stink(s) you kick up that draws more attention than the happy snaps did in the first place.
but you're too dumb to realise this.
More importantly, where's the pics of this 6-8ft Bells swell this morning?
Craig's down there now Don, said Bells was 6ft+ this morning. Should have some pics later.
just got outa the water...4-6" this morning,coupla bigger sets last nite....last monday was 4-6",and a couple of 8'sets,but not many...and a lota 3-4' days this week...
and thats the swell low down for the week. Amazing this morning at Winki...hardly anyone out....
Unreal Brutus.. thanks for the feedback. Hopefully we'll have some imagery up soon.
Cathedral Friday arvo started to nudge 6ft+ but that variable wind didn,t make for ideal conditions. Reckon todays swell was missing that x-factor and not quite as epic as expected, maybe 6 foot at best in the bells area and seemed to be missing a few other spots we expected to see working. Thought the swell may have been too west but appparently it went more south.
I surfed Bells late morning and late evening and it was an inconsistent but easy 6ft on the sets with the odd 8ft bomb. Winki looked a touch smaller but Bells was very solid even until dark.
@ Eddie Macguire. EVERYONE knows where down south is ... In Qld we know where it is. I'm sure it's been well known since seeing Tom/Ross/Slater/Potts/Curren/Ray/Lynch/Brooks/Horan surf it in the 80's 90's. You're moronic intimidatory behavior just attracts more attention to it. Why don't you have a look at wannasurf.com. The cat is truely out of the bag.
Hey guys, This is a long one but my yarn stoked a few people out yesterday so hope it does for you too. All names changed to protect the waves.
One of the better weekends of waves for quite some time and I was able to be surfing some new spots (for me) so wrote a tale...
Wake up unsure how big it is but knowing it was big cause I could hear/feel it from the house while having breakfast. Start driving around in the dark looking for spots that I've never been to before.Decided to pull over about where I thought 'Spot A' would be and got out of the car to see a 6-8ft heaving barrel go past, barely clearing a rock ledge and spitting before turning into a shoulder and petering out in dark water. Fark. One of the heaviest waves I've ever seen. No one around. Still Dark. No way I'm going out there.
Kept driving to Spot B and two guys were entering the water but it looked pretty tame. 3-4ft and pretty flat on the face. Swell didn't seem to be pushing in there. Kept driving to another spot, which also wasn't really feeling it and the beachies looked soft as. Swell seemed inconsistent. Long waits between big sets. Psyched myself up and drove back to the death barrel to give it a crack but about 1km before I got there I saw some cars and found the 'actual' Spot A. The wave I'd seen doesn't even have a name, but would be definitely towable, maybe surfable by pros. Only ridable on the sets bigger than 6ft. Heavy.
1 person paddling out at Spot A. 200-300m offshore at the end of a long section of reef with 8ft sets detonating and spitting everywhere (the wave up the reef is called XXX and is barely ridable and sickening to watch as waves of that size turn themselves inside out.). While running down to the paddle out spot one of the locals says "about 30 minutes ago I saw one of the biggest sets I've ever seen here, closed out everything". Awesome. Pretty easy paddle out in a veeeeeery deep, dark channel. There is a fickle slab in the middle of the bay that some lids were riding. Evil, backless waves detonating into deep water.
Spot A was heavy, slowly people started to paddle out. Typical for that area. Black rip curl wetsuits; big pin-tail boards, happily pushing over the ledge with mountains of water behind them. To paddle into the wave you have to get right underneath a section that goes top to bottom and push up on the corner of it where there's a ramp. Gets very very steep, very very quickly. Some waves barrelled top to bottom and spat into the channel with enormous force. Lots and lots of water in these things.
Took me 30 minutes to even paddle for a wave, another 30 minutes to catch one. Occasional 8ft sets coming through. Evil waves detonating at XXX. Got a few but I was a bit rattled. A couple of takeoff barrels came through on the sets that you could have comfortably driven a bus through. Spot A 1, Me 0.
Went for an arvo surf at Spot B. Spot A looked a bit funny and no one out and Spot B was 4ft with the odd bigger one and lining up. It's a fun wave, a little fat, and only about 10 people out, everyone on the main peak was sitting too far out so I sat underneath them and picked up everything that came through. Good times. Set up like about 30 other similar waves in the area. The flatness made it a bit tough to get drive and turn on the backhand but fun nevertheless. Love this coast
Slept in on Sunday to recuperate after a big week just gone. Still very solid. More consistent at 5ft with 6ft sets and less prospect of catching a rogue 8ft bomb on the head. Went back to Spot A, oily and very solid. Only 2 guys out. Was keen to get one back on it for yesterday so started going for everything. Copped a few beatings (got sucked back through on a 6ft wave then copped the next one on the head thanks for coming) but got a few fun ones too to prove I could do it. Steeeeeeeep drops, vertical. Problem was, after about 30mins the other guys went in.
I waited out while they got changed and then was left, alone, in a thundering swell at a spot where no-one knows where I was. My car was parked off the road so no one would ever find me if I disappeared. 6ft + waves turning themselves inside out at xxx, grey skies and rain, deep, dark water. And the wave is set up so if you got into trouble you can't just catch whitewater to the beach. You've got a good 100m paddle against the current in the channel. Eerie.
The waves just kept coming though. straight, strong 5ft+ sets every few minutes. Got a few more while praying for someone else to turn up then Made a decision to quit while I was ahead. Waited for a big set, deep breaths, paddle deep push over the ledge and come flying off the bottom. Time to call it quits. Got changed while countless 6ft bombs went through. no one out. I was BURNING, but probably the right move.
What a weekend! Pure Stoke.
Hope you enjoyed the yarn
Epic story leckiep!
Nice work Leckiep.
Great read and yarn Leckiep, here's my account from the weekend.
I booked flights earlier in the week, geting the red eye on Friday morning with an aim to work from Torquay and then surf my brains out Saturday and Sunday before flying back that evening. Everything was going to plan until I landed on Friday and heard how good the surf was.
I wanted to preserve all my energy for the weekend but with clean 4-5ft+ sets rolling through Bells I couldn't resist and headed straight to the coast for a quick warm-up paddle. In just over an hour I got over 10 waves, surfing a 6'8 Diverse gun borrowed off Ben Matson. This quick paddle gave me an idea of the whole setup, as I'd never surfed Bells over 2ft before.
I was staying at my relatives place, who are retired, right on the edge of Torquay and they kindly offered up basically the front half of the house for me to make myself at home. After a good home cooked meal and a few brews I went to bed setting the alarm for 6.30am.
My aim was to surf 3 times on Saturday, the first location being a ledgey right hand point further towards Melbourne that only works in these bigger swells. Arriving in thick fog I trekked to the lookout to see a solid 5ft sets unload on the outside reef and then running for over 100m's into a sand bottomed beach.
While it looked a little quick and sectiony from the beach once out there it was actually quite a good wave, sucking up and sometimes barreling along the first section before turning into a fast carving wall into the beach. The only problem was the constantly growing crowd and swell inconsistency (that 5ft set I saw from the beach was rare and it was more 3-4ft with the incoming tide filling it up fast). It claimed me in the end, as well as the lack of sun which was shrouded behind a think blanket of fog sitting over the 13deg water.
Lack of function from my frozen hands menat it took me 5 minutes to get out of my wetty.
My next stop was Bells.
Let me tell you, there is no greater site than rolling around the corner at the top corner on the road to Bells, seeing thick well defined lines of groundswell bending its way down past The Bowl, Winki and then pushing down through the reefs towards Jan Juc. Under a light offshore and clear sunny skies it is simply mesmerising.
I had a quick glimpse at Winki and it was insanely crowded, Bells was bigger and less populated with consistent 6ft sets rolling through with the occasional 8ft bomb. I got a few quick snaps but the crowds were a little too much so I quickly hit the bitumen to check another right hand reef about 40 minutes down the road.
After a winding drive along the Ocean Road I got to my vantage point but the spot I was wanting to surf was too inconsistent and crowded to bother with. I quickly hightailed it back to Bells and suited up.
When Bells is big you've just got to jump out in the right hand corner near the cliff and cop sets on the head while getting pulled towards The Button. At the size on the weekend it wasn't really a hassle but you still probably travelled half way down the beach towards Winki if you timed it wrong.
Stu told me that bigger boards are best out at big Bells (just to get into them) and he wasn't wrong as waves would stand up and feather for an eternity until breaking on the reef, and if you didn't paddle early or were right on the spot where they were breaking you were no chance of getting into them.
My tactic was to paddle a little deeper and sit inside, being vulnerable to bigger bomb sets but picking off the ones that would just slide under the crowd sitting out the back. This worked a treat and my first wave was a 6ft wall taken from Rincon all the way through to the Bowl with no real chance to get a turn in right until the end (a lot different to the big fat walls you often think of when looking at Bells). Not every wave did this though and I caught a lot out at Rincon that would just race and section away too quickly.
I started to clue on that the big wide ones were breaking in The Bowl and this is where I focussed my attention for the rest of the surf. After about 2 hours my hands were numb again and I'd consumed a mars bar stuck up under my wetty and it was time to go in.
After refuelling on fruit and bread along with a few blocks of chocolate I head out for the late afternoon surf. The swell was still pulsing at 6ft to occ 8ft and conditions were oily glassy with only a slight waft of offshore. Surfing till sundown and getting some great waves with a minimal crowd.
Back to a home cooked roast and I was literally stuffed, heading off to bed early.
I was expecting a more cruisy surf into Sunday but as I approached the T junction behind the Bells hills a glassy green wall stood up and broke through the Bells valley, an indication that the swell was still solid.
The morning surf was crowded and still 4-6ft but I struggled to catch many waves during the first half of the session with the lack of consistency and large amount of people in the water making it tough. A combination of luck and positioning saw things turn around during the second half as the crowd started to ease.
The last surf was my best. The tide had filled in causing Rincon to section through to The Bowl on the big wide sets, with only a few of us sitting over the boils waiting for these ones. 6ft waves were still rolling onto the reef and I got seemingly wave after wave after wave, laying down big drawn out carves on a canvas so silky and smooth it was hard to go wrong.
My day was done and the effort worth it, with a perfect mild winters weekend in Victoria leaving a warm fuzzy feeling for the place.
Sorry for the long read but I hope you got though it all.
You can view the images from the trip here.. http://www.swellnet.com.au/galleries/3099-flying-on-a-forecast
After all the discussions about wave heights, and now that we have photographic evidence.
Can you put a figure to the wave heights in some of the photos (not just Craig but anyone who wants to). He seems to be calling it 4 - 6 ft. Whether it be in ft, metres or body height is up to you.
I will go 1st #10 looks about 1 1/2 overhead and #17 about double overhead. Photo #19 looks at least double overhead, probably more, but its a distance shot and no one is standing up on it.
agree with your estimates...and always call it that way when describing a session...2'overhaed at break x and 3' overhead at break y...btw it was 2' overhead and perfect with only four guys out at a southern break that rarely works on sunday a.m gone. shoulda bin there!
TLC, just to clarify, I would of said all of Saturday was consistently 5-6ft+ with the odd bigger 8ft bomb while Sunday was 4-6ft.
That pulled back shot coming in from South Side would of been an easy 8ft set though Winki, have a look at the size of the surfers (dots) compared to the wave>
And also those pulled back shots looking over the hills towards Bells look to be well over 6ft but maybe just shy of 8ft.
woohcs,
You saying 2ft overhead or 2 times overhead?
If the latter, I hear ya brother, loud and clear. Farkin epic!
For the record, my wave height scale goes like this:
- overhead (OH!)
- double overhead (Doh!)
- triple overhead (TOH ie Tow!)
Not seeing any photos above 6ft. Maybe 4-5ft with the odd 6. Great looking conditions though.
Its rare that the Surfcoast gets above that size during winter due to the westerly aspect of the swell. Buoyweather might say 15ft at Johanna, but it rarely translates to much size closer to Melb. Invariably leads to overestimates.
enjoyed these yarns 'bout Bells and Craig's mid winter pilgrimage.
Bells seems to get bagged a lot these days. ya know, shit like the easter comp is a hoax cos its a dog wave blah blah.
apart from being surfings' Lords, Bells is a great wave.
anyone will atest who's had one of them bombs from out the back, or raced the wall from over centerside.
get one right and it will be one of your memorable lifetime rides. I've got mine. oh yeah and it barrels too, just ask titch.
lets mention the custodians, The BELLS ANGELS, awesome heritage, tradition and spirit.
now you lot get back to pissing in your wetsuits.
Heres my 20 cents. High quality swell under Blue skys and light winds, just that combo is pretty rare after 15 years of chasing the line at Bells. Flew down Friday got late arvo Bells session with 15 friendlys with light onshore glass. There were some bigger sets.. Bells and Winki took a 8 foot set every one to two hours which cleaned through the lineup. Wind blew W pretty much from 8pm friday night, so was super clean all Saturday. Regarding the forecast yes it was 6 foot swell with occasional 8 foot (albeit every hour). Sporadically to. It really pulsed lunchtime sat and then had some really lully periods. I sat out the morning session as the crowd was pretty intense 60 plus Bells and maybe 80 at the peak Winki. Winki is my favourite wave but I think Bells stood out during this swell.(Would be interested in what the gurus say for direction as it seemed to not hit uppers as it usually does in those bigger swells - didn't really fold on the takeoff). The best barrels were toward the mid-end section on the Saturday. and the the most memorable waves were the mid tide ones which woud be makeable all the way from Rincon to the beach.
Kudos to the locals who let the weekend warriors get their waves. Nice to see Maurice Cole out and a few other legends getting their share at Winki. Got a story from an old bloke in the lineup. He recounted when he was young if there were 15 guys out you werent allowed to paddle out and the grommits had to wait for MC to say its okay or for someone to paddle in. Imagine that!