Quiksilver Pro early surf forecast
How will last years rookies fare without the element of surprise? Will Old Baldy challenge for yet another crown? And will Dane Reynolds go out drinking every night?
So many questions to ponder at this the first competition of the 2012 World Tour. But what about the surf you ask, will it be flawless Snapper straight off the bat or another torturous two weeks of waiting with the result squeezed out in tiny D'bah slop?
The answer to that, at least from this early stage, appears to be neither although the competition has a good chance of running this Saturday, the first day of the waiting period. As Swellnet forecaster, Craig Brokensha, says, "The start of the waiting period will kick off with a bang as a small low pressure system produces 3-5ft of east-southeast swell on Saturday."
Unfortunately the waves will be breaking under less-then-perfect wind conditions. "Surface conditions don't look great with winds generally being fresh and gusty from the east, but there should be periods of lighter more favourable winds during the morning," said Craig.
"The swell should ease through Sunday as building levels of easterly tradewind swell filter in during the afternoon and muscle up through Monday and Tuesday, coming in at 3ft with occasional 4ft sets likely around the tide."
The winds throughout that period are forecast to be similar to Saturday - fresh and gusty from the east with lighter, more southerly winds in the mornings.
Without anything significant on the long term charts, and knowing that the organisers like to get things off with a bang, we predict that the first horn will hoot on Saturday morning.
Stay tuned for updates...
(Forecast graph is for Saturday night)
Comments
Wow, IMO, 5ft is a big call for Saturday Craig. I assume you're hoping (forecasting) for a small easterly dip/low pressure trough on the northern flank of the high, in close proximty to the mainland, otherwise I'm struggling to see 5ft surf at Snapper come Saturday morning.
Eitherway, it will be locally generated low quality junky swell on Saturday, and wind affected come mid morning as you've indicated. I reckon they'd be much better off running the event early-mid next week, noting that the swell forecast from these slow moving Tasman highs tends to wane slower post forecast peak, compared with what the models indicate.
But of course it's all about the sponsors exposure and they'll get more of this on a weekend than during the week, hence they'll start the comp this weekend anyway.
I agree with what your saying DonW but the ability of Snapper to turn those local short range swells into super fun pointsurf is pretty remarkable.......and those close range troughs always tend to over-achieve as far as size goes.
Don,
Have you see the high resolution charts regarding the small meso low that is forecast to push into the coast during Friday?
Winds are forecast to reach 30kts off the coast aimed right towards the Gold Coast. 3-5ft covers any possible change in the movement of this small scale feature, but you better than anyone would know how quickly these small systems can kick up some size. And as Steve has quoted, these tend to over achieve.
Carn Don, whack a number on your prediction!
Yep, totally agree that these near shore compact little fetches on easterly dips/small troughs of low pressure typically deliver swell over and above forecast models. I guess it can easily go either way and we will see come Saturday morning. I still believe it will be junky swell, particular once that wind get's into it from mid morning onwards, and hence whilst there may be some barrels on offer from behind the rocks, swell size will quickly diminish as the wave pushes down the point with the low swell period. So length of ride will be short and sweet IMO on the weekend.
Early to mid next week looks much better for wave quality and length of ride down the point IMO.
Stu, I don't need to put a number on it when Craig has the entire spectrum covered in his forecast for 3-5ft.
short range 2-4ft saturday breaking for about 30m off the rock then dying I reckon.
Think I might be tending more your way PP, 'cept breaking for further down the line.
Monday and Tuesday are a different story.
lol, its making it fricken hard to pick a couple of days to take off work thats for sure. Bigger with crappier winds or smaller with better rides but still potentially crappy winds...hmmm.
'Swell' ?
We doan need no steenkeen swell - the 'Circus' must go on!!!
All Hail ... - er, uh, who ees een charge?
"Will Dane go, out drinking every night"?
Noting that Dane's favorite hobby is slurping suds, it's quite clear he won't be waiting for the sun to go down.
Besides, he's got his own line of cuzzies to put thru the paces.
http://www.summerteeth.com/accessories/summer-teeth-cuzzi
"What is heaven for you"?...
"That scene out of Happy Gilmore with a midget pouring me a beer, a hot chick and the pokies that are all paying out."
-D.Reynolds
Stu,
Noting that Dane is absent from the wagering action,
http://www.sportingbet.com.au/#&&s=Sports-Surfing-Quicksilver+Pro+Gold+C...
maybe we can get a little action going here in the comment section?
Start the over/unders line at even odds Dane drinks three liters every day.
Dane will be in heaven,
500 meters away at Twin Towns RSL, poking all the pokies he can poke.
Even better...
if he want's to be a real underground rebel, he can head to the Coolie Bowlo...
cheapest coldest beer in town, meat trays, chook raffles, bare foot bowles, and dogs allowed.
if he's real lucky, he'll get to grab a granny.
sid,
yea. you are right.... , Daynolds is a granny grabber for sures.
Gonna git me Dane Reynolds autograph on the back of a Tweed Rissole coaster. Hock it off Underground Surf for a few bob and lob it back through the pokies.
Anyone know what his autograph looks like?
'D. Reynolds'
Scribble it.
Cooool
I see no one has mentioned the state of the bank. well it's fvcked.
it's been fvcked from behind the rocks to little marleys for months. literally fvcked unless swell direction is perfect. like from not even breaking behind the rock one swell to just big closeouts the next.
i noticed it has slowly gotten better but the council shoulda been pumping sand months ago, considering the tweed bar is bogged up anyhow.
that won't stop the commentators from over-hyping it though, yay the circus begins yet again.
go dane.
Why do you spell fucked with a V? Are you trying to be sophisticated? Do you use Bvlgari after shave?
I've never known how to pronounce Bvlgari. Is it bbbvvell-gary? Or is it bull-gary? Neither sounds sophisticated to me.
Yeah, it's pretty av, though to be honest (having just seen it 2 hours ago) it looks a shiteload better than a couple of weeks ago.
it was producing some little peelrs this arvo.
Lots of sand at Froggies to feed the bank if we get some S or SE push in the longshore current.
I've seen it heaps worse.
Lovin' the profile pics Sid. Was nearly gonna ask u to leave it at that arse a couple weeks back, but look at the gold we woulda missed.
As far as the tour goes: ....yeeeeewwww!
Bring it on. I got fiddy on Julian for this one, & a case on Gab for the long haul.
shorey, it's the new Billabong tow-in vessel / Boardroom table.
Seats 4 pro surfers, although they might be a bit tight.
bit tight ?
only Billabong team riders know the feeling.
still they won't complain, the Board of Directors are sitting on the floor.
Of course they wouldn't be tight come the end of the ride.
patty, in such lean economic times, everyone has to take one for the team.
And what's a dinner table leg up your arsehole anyway? Damn, prissy pro surfers. Bah!
Looking forward to the outsider vs the insider battles.
The Circus has arrived. Speak Australian translation - no response for 'pokeys' are they the games in pubs or women?
Someone tell me why events don't sell T shirts w/pockets. If they did I would buy a few. I boycott T's w/o pockets. Opportunity for enterprising Ozzie?
Tell me there really will be 5'(head high) surf for the connest. I am not going to spend time in front of this screen watching piddlers.
Good luck to all with an eventful event!!! Does what happens at Snapper stay at Snapper?
Shouldn't there be after hours coverage of the melee at the local pubs/whatever the town is called nearby?(coolenyurjets)
z-man... pokies... poker machines...one arm bandits....
slot machines in yankeedoodleland.
see vegas.
sidthefish - I remember a pub in Lennox was chock full of games when I visited in 98. I never heard the term 'pokie' before - thanks!
Here's hoping there are good waves for Snapper and surround for all non-contestants too!!!
Bet you have fun!!!
z-man, yeah pokies, fucken horrible things.
I hope Snapper goes good too, and everyone who wants to enjoy the comp does.
Me, wouldn't go near the joint.
Noting that the new drug and alcohol policy goes in effect at this first stop on the ASP tour, it's interesting to see that Davo did not show up for his trials heat.
Anyone know what is up?
Did Chris start breaking the ban on drinking early?
Craig et al, are you still going for a 5ft call tomorrow morning. Forecast has been downgraded for the near shore winds/fetch. I note from the local observations that they're not in line with the current forecast at the moment so would be interested in your thoughts?
ASCAT pass needs to be updated to get a feel of what's happened recently with that easterly dip. Last pass showed all the fetch was aimed north of the Goldy.
Yeah the intensity of that trough isn't quite there any more, but still I would be expecting a consistent 3-4ft, and there's still the possibility of 5ft sets if everything comes together. But a slight downgrade to 3-4ft is the more likely outcome.
I still think thats a very reasonable call based on latest wind obs and ASCAT passes.
Very reasonable.
3-4 foot Snapper off the corner is still fun, and rippable.
High tide might be a prob, but as it drains it's ripe for all forms of trickery, even in a E.
good luck frothers, go sick, stoked for you guys.
Steve, very reasonable 3-4ft or very reasonable 5ft? Big difference between 3ft surf and 5ft surf IMO. Also, do you have a link to the ASCAT passes you're looking at, cause the ones I'm seeing don't look that impressive to me (or the pass skipped over the core fetch aimed at the Goldy).
Jeez Don. 3-5ft is a very reasonable call. Lets call it head high to head and a half....
check the latest wind obs from Cape Moreton and DI Point.
davo's o.k. just severely dehydrated.
Hahahaha.
But doing his best to mitigate....
Agree with Steve
Banks looking good at Snap.... from behind the rock thru most ways to Little Marley should be a Canvas for those Riders on the Storm to Paint on with Wide Flowing Brush Strokes.
They just put the Buoys out so I guess its on
Duranbah, QLD 24.1° (Incoming Tide)
3-4ft ESE @ 7 sec ESE 12kn
But Looks Wind Affected Already.... Could be SuperShitty on The SuperBank Later
Speakng of L8er
nice heat dane, go out get pissed tonight + grab a goldy grannie .
Craig was right.
Yeah, I'd say 3'-5' was a good call. Some good sized waves coming through just after the high tide.
Bit rich Don considering you wouldn't make a call of your own. Craigs call was pretty spot on i reckon saw a couple of sets that pushed the head and a half mark.
I made a call. I said I didn't think it would be 5ft on Saturday morning. Everyone else forecast 3-5ft, so yes they were right, but when you forecast something that has a range at almost double the wave heights, who can't go wrong. I still don't think I saw waves in the 5ft range, other than the high tide back wash coming off the rocks, which quickly dissipated down to 3-4ft range soon after the take off/backwash. I also note not a single surf report came in close to 5ft on Saturday morning.
Anyway, at the end of the day, there's been some great surfing, and there's still some more to come over the next few days with the better period swell arriving and lighter winds.
Don, the forecast was never 5ft. It was 3-5ft. Please don't twist this around.
Sure, a 3-5ft forecast allows for reasonable margin of error, however (in my experience) with Snapper being an incredible swell magnet, a forecast such as this means 3-4ft for the most part with the odd bigger set. And as Craig described in the notes above, it was certainly a reasonable 3-day outlook given the synoptic setup at the time. Saturday's surf reports and the vision from the Quik Pro confirms this to have been the case.