Teahupoo Forecast: The Lemon Next to the Pie
"That's just the lemon next to the pie. It's gonna get bigger."
OK, as you've no doubt seen Billabong hit the ground running at Teahupoo by finishing Round 1 on the first day of the waiting period. That decision, we assume, was to harness media momentum and iron out any webcasting bugs - a pragmatic move reinforced by the two subsequent laydays that had similar sized waves.
For the next three days the swell at Teahupoo should persist at the same size – 4-6 feet. The first serious pulse of swell is expected to build through day six (Thursday local time, Friday Australian) of the waiting period with sets reaching 6-8 foot+ in the afternoon. Conditions may be a little tricky with a moderate to fresh east-southeast tradewind blowing across the wave. This swell should persist through day seven at the same size with winds tending straighter offshore from the east.
All the talk, however, is of what's coming behind that swell. In our last instalment we mentioned a series of stepladder swells – each one being larger than the one preceding it. Well, day eight looks like being the top rung of the ladder.
This swell will be generated by a very strong Southern Ocean storm forming south of New Zealand tonight. The storm should track east-northeast over an already active sea state, generating winds in the storm-force range (48-55kts) for a period of nearly 24 hours, setting in motion a large and powerful long-period groundswell.
We originally forecast 8-10 foot + waves but since then there's been a slight adjustment upwards, so rather than tone it down – which would be typical – we've revised the forecast up. Therefore, on Saturday Teahupoo should see 10-12 foot waves with the odd 15 foot bomb. The large distance between the storm and Tahiti - some 3,500 kilometres - will result in the bigger set waves being fairly inconsistent. Near-perfect wind conditions are expected with moderate easterly trades.
Our guess is that that with 2 ½ days to go they'll run the contest on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. Of course anything is possible but with good conditions forecast, the surfers' representative (Kieren Perrow) being a known charger, and the entire webcast world praying for thundering Chopes then those days appear good money.
Now that the forecast is locked in it's worth revisiting the term 'inconsistent'. In the context used above it sounds unfavourable, and it may mean there are slow periods during the swell, yet it may also be this aspect that allows the comp to run on Saturday. Between the very large inconsistent, and perhaps only towable, waves will be 'smaller' paddleable sets of around 10-12 feet. As you process that information spare a thought for competitors (assuming they run the competition on that day) sitting inside trying to paddle into 10 foot Teahupoo whilst keeping the keenest of eyes on any dark lumps appearing out the back.
Our advice to competitors? Don't blink, just go. Our advice to everyone in webcast world? Top up your bandwidth now.
//CRAIG 'BEAR' BROKENSHA & STU NETTLE
Comments
I guess Dane and Bobby made the right decision then.
I reckon Julian Wilson's smart for talking himself up to charge it. He's got no choice now so he's not gonna second guess himself and hesitate paddling into 10ft chopes.
wringing hands together
this is guna be insane to watch, imagine being in the channel
Please excuse my laziness here gents, but if there is a website that is showing this I'd appreciate the link.
Should be early in the day our time I would assume. Any other advice? I may have to come to work early just to get my fast internet. :-)
OOOOWEEEE! i seem to be getting quite giddy with anticipation, how many sleeps to saturday tahiti time?(my calculations suggest 5 sleeps)
B&K, the webcast will be available at billabongpro.com (Tahiti's four hours ahead of Sydney, so you'll need to be up early).
Is the above based on any insider information from The Outsider, or is it merely all here say?
Cause I still have my doubts whether they'll hold the comp on Saturday 27th (Tahiti time).
Ben, isn't Tahiti 20 hrs behind Sydney? ie it will be very early SUNDAY morning our time.
None of the above was based on info from The Outsider. However, I've spoken to other sources in Tahiti and at this stage they're gunning to run on Saturday.
And yes Don, I am aware Tahiti is 'behind' Sydney - I was referring to the general wake up routine (I didn't think it was necessary to write a daily program guide). All you need to know if that the daily call happens in the early hours of each morning - so even though the event may not run tomorrow, it can't be ruled out at this stage. I'd recommend getting up before dawn just in case.
Ben, seems to be a lot of crew here thinking Sat might be a tow only day.
But based on this latest f/cast it looks like it may have a chance to run.
Lot of guys from OS coming here expecting to tow.
Including Laird.
Thanks Ben, much obliged, got it locked in now.
Lay day today! Amazing looking at pics of waves that other comps would drool over and they call a lay day.
And Donw, thanks mate, but I really don't care what day it is there, just the time difference.
Regards
Guys, my point above was merely to point out that everyone's been talking about BIG Saturday, but that's Tahiti time, hence it's Sunday morning our time, that's all.
And Steve, thanks for the insider information.....nice to know that even the pro's are concurring it's gonna be fecking solid!!!
Is it going to be too windy? Can anyone tell us if the 20knt breeze will ruin it completely or if its OK? Cheers.
It doesn't look to be Sunbay.
Day 8, when the big swell is expected to hit (Saturday Tahitian time), winds are expected to tend around to a near perfect E/NE and be in the 15-20kt range as stated. So no issues at this stage.
The only day where the winds may become an issue is Day 6 (Thursday Tahitian time - tomorrow) when the 6-8ft+ swell is expected to build. It looks like there'll be a moderate to fresh SE wind blowing which will come over the back of the wave, and lead it to section a little.
The following Day 7 is looking much better with winds tending more E'ly and easing a touch.
So with a building swell and dicey winds on the cards tomorrow, they may hold off, but if they want to run and finish the finals on Saturday, they'll have to at least get half a day in.
It will be interesting to see the call.
We have to remember, that Day 9 (Sunday Tahitian time) will continue to see a large but easing swell with good winds, so which ever way they go, it looks like the competition will finish in excellent waves!
Hope the internet doesn't crash!
I personally think they'll run the finals on Sunday (tahiti time).
Saturday will be left to the fly in/fly out big wave tow men.
Will you look at everyone up in here? Rolling like farking armchair weathermen?...
What's next? All ockers will now be prognosticating the bogus claims of a coming climate change/global warming?
Sorry boys.. Back to the drawing boards. "Cause y'all are so sounding like that hype beast AlGore, who had a lock on a serious LOAD of bull crap.
And made serious bank flogging his line of useless horse.
Hey Mr Roller,
You realise you're commenting on a surf forecasting site, right? Wave/forecast/weather...it's what people come here for.
Yup, Stunet. Quite aware....
And howzit been working for most all ASP events so far?
How's what been working? The forecasts? OK for all the events we've issued forecasts for. But then this one has get more attention because of the size, which is to be expected.
Did your question have a point or were you just making conversation?
These forecasts you speak of, stunet... Would you guess that this was the factor that kept two California pros, (Daynolds and B-Mart), from showing up?
Who else have quite before the predicted swell actually hit?
No conversation. Just observations.
Every event has hopes...
Did not many an ASP event past and present have swell predicted to be better than they got?
Surfers, as well as youth are easily deceived because we're quick to hope.
Hey roller, did your mother not predict that you would come out much better than what she got.
Have you always been a fuckwit or are you taking a stab at a new direction in life?
What a plonker.
(*wince). Holy Jeebus, B&K, have you been stopped taking yer anti-cranky pills or are you just pissed about not being at Chopes?
The only thing less edifying than reading silly (admittedly, very silly) comments is reading someone much cleverer kick the s..t outta the silly bunt who made them.
Peace, brother.
Point taken whaaaaaaaaaaaaaaat!
Going through the change of life, please bear with me. Should be outta this in a decade or two. Tolerance levels dropping.
Don't meet many peacemakers these days, in person or on the internet.
Tahiti was just on Channel Nine News in Sydney! They had a female correspondent dressed in a polyester power suit with wide lapels standing next to the lagoon. I've also heard about 50 surfers and photogs saying they are heading over there. No doubt there's any, many more.
Considering the amount of people I've gotta wonder how this is gonna play out in the channel. There's not that much room for boats. As it is they already jostle and most people could probably remember the famous sequence of Pete Frieden diving off a boat just as it went over the falls (with his gilrfriend on board).
I've heard the French-Polynesian police will be checking credentials of all boat drivers and turning some drivers back. What about canoeists and skis? Havae Pass is wide but on a big swell water still rips out of there. I can see some pretty girls in bikinis getting dragged out to sea.
Where is everyone gonna watch it from?
@ Batfink
Blessed are the cheesemakers
..."Would you guess that this was the factor that kept two California pros, (Daynolds and B-Mart), from showing up?"
Dane and Bobby failed to surf JBay... which was far from heavy. Logic says swell has nothing to do with it.
The common theme is the sponsor. At least in Bobby's case. Dane hasn't surfed the CT all year.
Neither of them matter.
All that matters is who nuts up and hucks over the ledge. It shall be a spectacle to watch... from the safety of mommie's basement.
-"When even the busboys are talking shares it's time to get out of the market" Warren Buffett
Now everyone is talking Teahupoo I wonder if they'll be in for a disappointment.
B-R's logic is flawless.
I wonder, though, whether, in their heart of hearts, where no-one else can see, Dane and Bobby aren't secretly thanking Dog that they pulled the pin before their respective cohones could really be called into question.
My inner psychologist (which becomes my outer psychologist whenever I'm on the net) says,
Neither are concerned with size. Bobby is upset because he's realising how insignificant he is and Dane is happy because he's feeling insignificant for once.
Contact me if your puzzle needs solving. First appointment free.
For the last couple of years, Bob-Mart whinged to the max over the fact that there were no quality lefts on the D-Tour.
Over the course of his CT career Bob-Mart has won Taheets twice, and Mundaka twice.
All in shoulder high surf going left.
He's going to the Quikie Pro in NYC. But bailed on Taheets when it scheduled to be more than macking.
After perusing the facts, forgive us if we tend to think he's a Mr Softie, West Coast kind of guy...
But boy can that guy punch up a mean Twittie kitty account or what?
There'll be restrictions on the amount of boats allowed out there.
Bong will hold an expression session on Sat if it is too big to tow.
People intending to tow must sign a waiver and apply to the Tahitian Surf Federation......they have final veto over who will be allowed to surf.
Cheers Steve. Keep us updated...
We've just uploaded two more graphs into this story (see images 3 & 4 - click enlarge). Both are oceanic wind speed readings taken by satellite indicating the swell is technically not a 'forecast' but is actually in the water.
All that's left is to fine-tune the size and predict who is gonna give it a nudge.
Do you think that if it gets too big to run the event that Fuel and the webcast will still pick up the mayhem that plays out?
Freeride says an expression session, if that's the case I hope they show it all.
Imagine the guys on the ratings bubble freaking about having to requal in the heaviest waves on the planet. Take it on or possibly lose your career???
Yep, Billabong have already said they'll webcast the tow session if the event is called off.
Blowing a gale here in Tahiti right now (8.20pm local time).
Be very surprised if the comp runs first thing.
Will need some time to let the bump and gurgle from 2 days of onshores settle down.
It already appears as though plans are being put into place for when the comp DOESN'T run on Saturday (Tahiti time).
As for all the people hanging in the channel, one sneaker from the west at the height of the swell will catchout some boats with no room to move leaving those aboard and hangers-on helplessly skull-dragged across the lagoon.
Doc Paul Fisher will then be the most wanted man in the medic tent.
Bobby bailed on Tahiti long before the swell forecast. Before J Bay. Check facts. Follow sponsor trail. Answer is right in your face.
Let's all pray Joe Btfsplk doesn't show up in Tahiti.
You know the effect he has on swell forecasts, weather etc.?
Stunet - could your thread/forecasts get any more popular?
Good job!
Bob-Mart has always had sponsorship issues. And Bob-Mart, similar to K-Mart. has had problems competing in the big.
The guy is made for places like the NYC event.
As to the forecasted, getting the right winds in conjunction with swell is always a factor.
Every surf spot on earth has a couple of epic days per month in season. Teahupoo is no exception.
Now rottypotty-mouth, go buy some event togs. Or some BillaBob Marley gear for the wife and kids... This surf contest costs big money. And Billabong ain't putting this thing on for free.
Just sticking to facts. Bobby's not doing Bong contests.
And this Bong contest nearly didn't happen.
Bong is not doing so hot these days.
Just the facts.
The reasons behind those facts are more sordid than one can imagine... so we hear.
Looks like that south-east wind is causing a bit of a trouble with the building swell as I mentioned could be the case yesterday.
Hopefully it backs off and tends more east during the day, but I don't like its chances.
Still looking very second hand here Craig.
Mod/fresh SE winds and rain squalls.
Bong may or may not be doing the revenues and or profits they would like at this time. But it has nothing to do with Bob-Mart quitting.
Nor did any of the past companies who threw sponsorship money over the years Bob-Marts way.
As to swell and or long term weather forecasts.... One always need to factor in the other key element such as wind angle and strength. As many a predicted swell is turned to horse by shite winds.
Just ask AlGore.
Who took his hype to 'da max take on bogus weather predictions straight to the bank....
BillaBob should be so lucky.
So comp not started yet? Another call to be made shortly? Am I reading their website correctly?
Sounds like unfavourable winds killing it now.
Winds may still prove to be a small issue tomorrow TR with a moderate E/SE'ly, but when the big swell kicks in there'll be no issues at all.
Current guidance has E'ly winds during Saturday morning Tahitian time, tending the slightest bit to the E/NE during the afternoon, with perfect E/NE winds on the tail of the swell through Sunday.
So today is the worst of it, with improving conditions over the next two days.
Bongs problems have nothing to do with swell or Bobby. Fact. Look at their latest financial and pending lawsuits. Bobby not surfing Chopes because its a Bong event... Also a second source fact. Bong should have run round two yesterday... Fact. Who makes their decisions?
Good question.
ALWAYS question authority.