Teahupoo Forecast: How Big?
It's Friday the 19th August, one day before the waiting period of the Billabong Pro begins. The surfers have all winged their way to French Polynesia while the first swell is currently working it's way up the South Pacific toward Tahiti Iti.
It's lights, cameras, and very nearly, action.
As was mentioned in both our earlier forecasts this year will be the year the swell drought breaks. Nothing has changed since those reports were issued but we do have more specific sizes and arrival dates of the swells.
The first five days of the waiting period will see varying pulses of swell between 4 and 6 feet at Teahupoo. These would be considered marquee days in any Billabong Pro of the last five years, however the organisers will have to stare these days down because the forecast gets better. We have it on good authority that sitting out those days is exactly what they are planning to do.
The contest laydays will be ideal training for the surfers and they are going to need it. A series of strong cold fronts are moving in succession from below New Zealand up toward Tahiti. Each successive cold front will work on the active sea state generated by the winds before it, the result being a series of 'stepladder' swells – each one larger than the last.
On days 6 and 7 a strong S-SW swell measuring at least 8 feet – in other words, real Teahupoo – will make landfall. The swell following that has the likelihood of being significantly bigger – say 8-10 foot+.
The winds during the early part of the period will be variable with a trade wind flow establishing itself around day 6 when the first solid swell hits. Localised storms may still pass through yet offshore ESE trades will be the dominant winds.
Now that we are assured the contest will run in size it's time to start thinking who the favourites are. The stocks of wildcard local, Heiraii Williams, have risen considerably as he has the most experience in solid Teahupoo. Cory Lopez, who is standing in for Dane Reynolds, is another proven performer. Besides making the channel on two big ones, no further strategy is required. Of course, you've gotta throw yourself over the ledge for that to happen and we know Lopez will.
Slater, as always, is a threat, and riding exclusively on a quad will fuel further interest in his heats. The Outsider had a session at perfect 4-6 foot Teahupoo yesterday and reported Ace Buchan and Kieren Perrow shining. No surprises there, but they'll all need as much confidence as they can muster.
Bring it on... //CRAIG BROKENSHA & STU NETTLE
Comments
Based on the latest GFS, the subsequent swells (post days 6 and 7) look solid with open ocean swell heights and periods of 10-11ft @ 14-15 seconds. I still question whether they'll hold the event on these days (Thurs 25th/Fri 26th) as paddling into these sets will be quite a challenge IMO.
Sunday 28th looks outta control, although this is obviously some way off and likely to major revision (downgrade) between now and when the fetch actually occurs.
That forecast should help lift Billabong's ailing share price of late.
And it certainly eliminates the possibility of a Brazilian bunny-hopping his way to victory.
Speaking of bunny hopping, where's Merrick Davis ?
I heard about Shep bagging a few gems yesterday with Jay-Flo and a couple other blokes. Looking forward to his posts from the channel. I want to see tears and bloodshed. Wheat separated from chaff.
All while I sit safely behind my computer... balls stuck firmly up my own ass for safe keeping.
Hey Stu & Craig, This info you give us is top class. I love it.
I look forward to an update with this event looking the most exciting in years, ANYWHERE!!!
So will they run the event (preferably finals) on Saturday 27th? Looks fecking SOLID.....and not paddle-in-able IMO.
Winds look strong too.....creating some tricky conditions for the take offs.
I bloody hope so Don!
If these guys can't do it, no one can.
I'm thinking it's gonna be in the 10-12ft range with the possibility of the odd bigger sneaker. Will give an update tomorrow.
I think the one thing that will help them is the inconsistency. This will mean they won't be under full assault from these bigger bombs, and maybe able to pick off the inside ones as well.
It would be a farce if after all these years of no swell they end up not running on the biggest day in the even window!
Craig, the forecast swell period for Sat 27th is currently in the 19-20sec band. The speed at which these sets will be hitting that reef will mean one will need some exceptional paddling arms to get onto the beasts.
But perhaps, as you say, they won't charge the beasts, rather sneak inside between them for the more sedate/slower ones.
I'm still questioning whether the pros will run the event on Saturday....rather they may opt for a lay day due to safety concerns of clean up sets pushing them over the reef (assuming the current forecast comes to fruition).
Would be comical to see when the staff makes the decision that it's too big, and the call comes down that it's too big for the pro boys,... 'err, "adverse surf and weather conditions".
Making the mens events now equal to the women's division back when the Moviestar Peru Classic, the Gidget Pro Sunset Beach, and the Mr Price Pro in South Africa did the same thing!
http://www.theextremescene.com/blog/asp-women’s-world-tour-continues-damage-their-credibility
Turn it up!
Sweating bullets comes to mind. It could be epochal!