Quiksilver Pro: Early Surf Forecast
It's not a great short term forecast for the opening event on the 2011 ASP World Tour calendar.
What makes it more difficult to bear is that we've seen some very nice waves across the Gold Coast in recent weeks. After a lacklustre end to 2010, we began the New Year quite well with back-to-back trade swells and a couple of memorable cyclone events across the Gold Coast environs. However the swell window has since quietened down, and it's very likely we'll enter the Quiksilver Pro waiting period doing just that - waiting.
But right now, at first glance the synoptic charts actually look promising. Severe Tropical Cyclone Atu is positioned south-east of New Caledonia, holding strength as a Category 4 system with estimated wind strengths of around 90kts, or 166km/hr.
As if to round out the national froth, Victoria and Tasmania just scored a solid summer swell that lit up the points and reefs with unseasonably good surf. And a bevy of cyclones off the Western Australian coast are keeping the entire state's surfing community on high alert for another freak north-west swell.
But it's all just a short term mirage for the Sunshine State. STC Atu is tracking rapidly towards New Zealand, and despite its considerable size and strength, won't generate much more than a brief pulse of easterly swell for the East Coast. A moderate ridge of high pressure in the Tasman Sea will break down by the end of the week, drying up our existing supply of average trade swell (which Snapper can be quite effective with, actually).
From the weekend through until next Tuesday, we'll hold steady with small swells and northerly winds. It's not the size that's the problem at Snapper - we only need a couple of feet to produce contestable runners off the rock - it's the wind regime.
Light synoptic winds invariably lead to north-east sea breezes, which do no favours for the opening rounds of competition that prefers full days. And, migrating high pressure systems in the Tasman Sea - like we're expecting early next week - will eventually throw some muscle behind the north wind, rendering the majority of the Gold Coast quite bumpy and choppy.
A southerly change is on the cards for the middle of next week, which should bring about favourable conditions at Snapper Rocks, but current indications are that there won't be a lot of swell behind it - probably just a renewal of short period trade swell off the top of an establishing high pressure system. This should be enough to get up and running, but at this stage there are no significant swells on the long term charts.
From next Wednesday, we'll still have another week to get the job done, so there's absolutely no reason to panic right here and now. But, if you're hoping for a quick start and finish to the event, you're going to be a little disappointed this year.
For a more comprehensive surf outlook, check out Steve Shearer's forecast notes every Monday, Wednesday and Friday afternoon. We'll update a broad competition forecast overview at the end of the week, and throughout the event as well. //BEN MATSON
Comments
Looking very sad in the short to medium term indeed Ben. Only hope looks to be on the long range for some SE, tending E'ly tradewind swell next weekend (Fri 4th-Sun 6th).
Here he is^^ I thought something had happened to you Don, hadn't heard anything about cyclones on the outer edges of predictions from you in a while.
If we look at the position of the upper level long-wave-trough, it is positioned across the entrance to the southern Tasman Sea.
This has resulted in an extended run of swell across the South Arm in Tassie, as well as providing plenty of southerly swell for the East Coast of the country.
While this upper level feature remains positioned across the entrance to the southern Tasman Sea, as is forecast for the following week and show below, we will continue to see small levels of south swell impacting the east coast, with no easterly ridge forming to provide any easterly trade-swell.
Therefore it looks like small D-Bah for the most part after this weekends swell.
Ha ha Craig. I've decided to take a step back from the forums et al and concentrate on other more important things in my life, so you won't be hearing from me a lot from now on.
But I couldn't resist commenting above as it's a dissappointing start to the first event of the WCT.
Hey Ben Matson, you write; "but at this stage there are no significant swells on the long term charts".
I'll respectfully disagree Ben. Yesterday, I started a new topic in Crystal ball , "swell predictions for Quickie pro". Let's see if I'm on the money, Ben.
mel-anoma, you failed to note that I wrote this article on Wednesday.
Your forum post was 2 days later.
A lot can happen in weather-forecasting-land in 48 hours. That's why the sentence you quoted of me said "at this stage", because that was the case on Wednesday.
There was nothing of interest whatsoever in the long term forecast on Wednesday, however things have changed a little since. I'll hopefully update this forecast today.
Ben, Didn't the article "go to press" yesterday? I'm sure that's what it said this morning when I first noticed the article on the homepage. In fact, it still says that ("yesterday") when you click into latest news and events. Anyway, it now has the date of writing on it, which I assume has been recently added. So you must excuse me for failing to note something that wasn't there when I first checked. Or perhaps my pterygiums are worse than I think.
Ben, also note the possible developement of a massive low ssw of New Zealand at the same time ( Fri/Sat week). Looks like a doozy. And with se winds ridging around a large high, tending more ese up towards SEQ due to that trough, you never know, more of the south swell produced by that big low might even push in. cheers, Ben.
Nah Mel, the article was actually posted on Wednesday arvo (I posted it). Not sure where you would've seen a date that said yesterday. A browser issue maybe?.
Today's model runs are honing in on activity toward the end of the waiting period (around the 5th or 6th) and either Ben or Craig will do another forecast shortly. It's gonna be interesting, because to my untrained eyes, it's not a matter of 'if' but 'when', and most importantly to us keen comp watchers, 'how big'?
Although it means we're unlikely to see any comp days for a while.
Cheers, stunet, thanks for the reply.
I'm willing to go out on a limb and say;
Sunday 6 march, stormy 4 feet se swell in the morning, rising as the day goes to solid 6 feet by late arvo, with torrential rain and strong se winds, due to a break off low forming out of a deep trough that gained strength from the merging of a monsoonal system over inland Qld, and the trailing frontal arm of a low situated between Tassie and New Zealand.
That's all my crystal ball can tell me at the moment.
Cheers.