It's Time To Go: Eddie
Except for an excellent Pipeline swell in November the first half of the 2010/11 Hawaiian season has been very underwhelming. So quiet has it been that the visiting pros only needed their step-up boards during the December contest season. In fact the only people that waxed their guns that month were the entrants and alternates of the Eddie Aikau Big Wave Invitational.
On December 3rd 2010 they gathered at Waimea Park for a paddle-out and to begin the wait for swell. On the weather front there was talk the Eddie may not happen this year as la Nina conditions combined with a badly-aligned jet stream to send swell either directly south toward Pohnpei (P-Pass has been breaking for a month!) or north toward Alaska.
Those conditions appear to be changing however, and a very large weather system is expected to move off the Kamchatka Peninsula next Monday. Once in the north-western Pacific it is forecast to deepen and remain stationary for 48 hours sending a major swell toward the Hawaiian Islands, arriving on the 20th or 21st January.
Contest director for the Eddie Aikau Invitational, George Downing, said of the low pressure system "Until it starts to organize we won't know exactly what we will see here in Hawaii. It's likely that this will be one of the biggest of the winter so far, but that might still only mean 15 feet. It's still a long way out, but we're on it."
So are we. Check back for more details.
Comments
Holy crap. That's one hell of a storm set to brew in the North Pacific early-mid next week. The main fetch looks to bypass Hawaii, but with 50ft open ocean swells currently forecast from this system in the mid North Pacific ocean, radial spreading should certainly ensure some solid swell makes it down to Hawaii.
And who said the North Pacific is asleep in a La Nina!!!
20ft @ 19 seconds from the NW come Thurs/Fri 20th/21st. Doesn't get much bigger than that for a contest!!!!
This swell is still on target - looking to produce one heck of a swell next Wed/Thurs Hawaiian time. Conditions look great too, with light variable trending trade winds.
Seems to be a reasonably good chance the Eddie might happen - Quiksilver have already shipped over a whole bunch of gear in anticipation that it could very well happen. Probably worth booking in Friday morning (Aust time) for some serious webcast watching.
From my end, I'm just not sure how much wave heights are attenuated at Waimea under Northwest by West swells, as its swell shadow is anti-clockwise of about 295 degrees. This event looks to be from 300-310 degrees, so it should just squeak through although local bathymetry will probably have a major role.
According to a well known American surf forecasting website, they actually don't reckon Waimea is any good in swell periods greater than 15-16 seconds as the local bathymetry of the outer adjoining reefs steal all the swell.
Surely even at 20ft@19 secs somethings gotta be getting into Waimea?
Sure, there'll definitely be something at Waimea, but estimating specific wave heights is very difficult - bathymetry can play weird and wonderful tricks. Sometimes it's the period, other times it's the swell direction (or, a combination of both) - I've seen enormous differences in wave heights across seemingly 'open' stretches of coast, that defy all logic. We'll just have to wait and see what eventuates!
Holy shit, that is a huge storm system.
Check the width of the fetch, it's gargantuan.
It's a pretty impressive storm hey Steve!!! :)
George Downing's decision to put the contest on hold despite the arrival of the occasional 20-25 foot wave shows his intimate knowledge of the Waimea Bay set-up.He has been a Waimea Bay legend since the 50's and was an inspiration for my big wave efforts starting 1957