'History never repeats'

The old Split Enz song is about to be tested this Sunday and Monday as an East Coast Low is predicted to form off the, erm...East Coast. While it's no surprise to see East Coast Low's form in the region they are named this system does have a few striking similarities to an earlier - and famous - system.

On the 8th June 2007 - almost three years ago exactly - a low formed off the coast of Newcastle and rapidly deepened. According to Swellnet surf forecaster, Craig Brokensha, "The low pressure centre formed just east of Seal Rocks, and intensified rapidly with open ocean wind speeds increasing from 5-10kts to 40-50kts from the south-east within as little as 12 hours, producing a rapid and large increase in swell".

Newcastle has a busy port and ships awaiting coal and steel regularly wait offshore to be loaded. As the winds increased from the south the harbourmaster ordered all ships to head further offshore to safer waters. The Pasha Bulker baulked (boom boom!) and was unable to turn around in the strengthening southerly winds. The captain of the Japanese owned, Panamanian registered ship fought the wind and waves but to no avail. A few hours later it was stranded on Nobby's Beach, where it remained for the next month.

While the low pressure system forecast for Sunday bears many similarities to that which stranded the Pasha Bulker it should be stressed that it's exact location can't yet be pinpointed. Says Craig, "One global forecasting model has the system sitting right off Sydney overnight Sunday, directing gale to storm-force winds and potentially generating a 10-15ft storm-swell. Another model has the low weaker and positioned slightly more to the south resulting in a smaller swell for the Sydney region. Either way the southern NSW coastline will experience a large swell event and wild weather during Sunday and Monday".

The system that beached the Pasha Bulker back in 2007 marked the beginning of very good run of swells for the East Coast. Four more East Coast Lows developed before the month was over. It's too early to tell whether we will have follow up systems, such as we did in 2007, but let's hope that history does repeat itself.//STUART NETTLE