Tahiti Red Alert!
Margaret River or Teahupoo?
Valuable 'QS points or incredible tropical pits?
With the Quiksilver Pro all wrapped up and three weeks until the Rip Curl Pro, World Tour surfers - at least those who have the cajones - have a decision to make; chase the points at the Drug Aware Pro or chase the biggest swell to hit Chopes in many months.
Next week Teahupoo is expected to receive a series of very strong groundswells. The catalyst for the development of these swells will be the amplification of the upper level Long Wave Trough just to the east of of New Zealand.
This upper level feature is basically a pronounced region of cold air in the upper atmosphere, and will effectively steer any cold fronts developing in the Southern Ocean up along the East Coast of New Zealand and right into Teahupoo's prime swell window.
This will be the case during this weekend and into early next week, with a strong frontal progression predicted to push up along New Zealand's East Coast generating winds in the 30-40 knot+ range with the help of a strong ridging high in the Tasman Sea. Each front will be appear to 'sling-shot' up from the south off a far broader area of low pressure to the east of New Zealand.
Due to the system as a whole pushing up closer to Tahiti than usual we can expect more consistency in the sets as they arrive. The longevity of this swell is what makes the outlook exciting with the progression of at least four frontal systems resulting in an episode of large swell lasting for at least five to six days. The sou-west direction is also the optimum direction for Chopes' fearsome end bowl.
The first swell should arrive arrive on Tuesday (Tahitian time), but the real juicy stuff looks to push in a couple of days later on Thursday with sets in the 15-18 foot range. At this stage local winds appear to be E-NE which is offshore.
It should be noted that there is a solid southerly groundswell set to hit Tahiti this coming Saturday (Tahitian time) in the 10ft range, but the real action begins next week. Here's hoping that some of the surfers make the dash to Chopes with cameramen in tow. //CRAIG BROKENSHA
Track the swell's movement here (click the arrows to toggle forward)
Comments
Nice Craig. Have ya seen the follow up system set to push beneath Tassie and out past the SE tip of NZ early next week!!! Slightly smaller swell for Tahiti(due to the swell source being further away) but bugger me, the swell period is gonna be insane!!!
I'd be expecting some serious SW wave heights to hit Chopes around next weekend (20th/21st Tahiti time)............perhaps this is a good sign of a damn fine Billabong Pro comp this year?
The Chopes comp is six months away Don!
Due to a lean five year run the ASP moved it to August. We've got Bells, Brazil and J-Bay before then. This swell, however, shows that you can get swell at any time of the year in Tahiti.
Check that long period leading edge heading for Rapa Nui...!
...and even further abroad - Chile!
It's one of those systems that lights up the whole South Pacific. Be a great many surfers scoring off this one.
Ahhhh, shit, I didn't know they'd postponed it til August. How funny would it be if they got mackin swell this year when it was supposed to be on (in previous years) and diddly squat in August.....LOL.
Ha ha...don't worry Don we'll be keeping an eye on it and reporting back if that's the case.
The ASP has a bit of a hoodoo when it comes to missing good swells. Mundaka comes immediately to mind: in 2001 they cancelled the second half of the tour after Osama's antics and Mundaka was 8 foot and perfect for days. Last year it was 6-8 foot the day after the comp.
F*ck me! The charts have stepped up a notch.
Check the forecast wave heights under the South Island for next Tuesday - 54 feet at 17 secs!
http://www.swellnet.com.au/weather/snsw/charts
That's what I was alluding to in my post above Stu (the very nice purple blobs beneath NZ early next week):)
Although I'm not sure what model run you were looking at Stu, but the latest 12z run has actually wound it back to around the 30 ft mark and actually pushed the fetch further east of NZ.
Hi Don,
Yeah 00z had the front below New Zealand going nuts with 50-60kt+ winds, but has wound things back on the 12z run.
Still looking juicy up in the tropical South Pacific as well ;)
When I checked the model runs lat night those purple blobs had turned white! Don't think I've ever seen charts with that colour on them before. Should have saved them for posterity...looked awesome.
18z run has pushed wave heights back up to 40ft+, albeit further out into the South Pacific, hence not directly aimed at Tahiti.
Nevertheless, radial spreading and the insane wave periods should still deliver some very meaty swell to Tahiti and other surrounding islands.
I know several photogs who are heading to a tropical South Pacific island this Saturday for two weeks......am looking forward to seeing their pics of this swell event for sure.....assuming the place they're going to can handle large very powerful (18-20 sec period) groundswells!!!
HOLY FECK ME!!!!
http://www.surfline.com/surf-news/teahupoo-first-blood_41911
Check out that monster on the first slide....and then the video footage of the same wave on #4 slide. That wave is a fecking mutant!!!
Looks like another solid swell should push out beneath NZ later this weekend, although it's got a touch more zonal (W/SW) bias.
If the Billabong Pro was on in April this year, does anyone know when it would have been?
Based on the latest GFS charts, there's a massive swell due to hit there late next week (April 22nd-April 24th Chopes dates)!!!! We're talking probably 3-3.5m @ 18-20 sec periods!!!! :shock: :shock: :shock:
It was April 9-20 last year Don. The South Pacific storm track is really hotting up so I might keep an eye on swell events in those dates. Just for interests sake...