Eyes To The North For Incoming Tropical Wave

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)
Swellnet Analysis

Our ever-reliable wave of tropical activity is inbound across the north of the country this week, though it's not travelling through the ocean, rather the atmosphere.

The atmospheric wave is associated with increased instability, convection and cyclogenesis (tropical cyclones) in our tropical regions and is known as the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO).

Instability forming north of the country (Himawari 8)

The MJO has a period of 30-60 days and last moved through the north of the country at the start of December. That episode produced Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasper which crossed the northern Qld coast, bringing significant rainfalls and widespread flooding.

Currently, the MJO is in the Indian Ocean with two tropical cyclones forming under its influence, with our region set to follow over the coming week.

As the MJO moves further east, we're expected to see it spawn a tropical cyclone in the Coral Sea, but again it doesn't look great for swell potential.

The majority of the global forecasting models have it sitting east of Cairns, too far north and west to generate swell that'll impact the south-east Queensland and NSW coast.

Tropical Cyclone activity (including genesis) for next Monday (ECMWF)

As with all long-range forecasts regarding tropical cyclones, confidence on the track and strength is low, but regardless, a deepening tropical low north of New Zealand looks to be a better swell producer for the weekend and early next week.

With the instability inbound across the country over the coming week and a bit, all eyes should be focussed on the East Coast regional Forecaster Notes for updates on the local swell and wind possibilities from the north-eastern quadrant.

Comments

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Tuesday, 16 Jan 2024 at 10:02am

Feels like the MJO's been parked across the Tweed Coast since the start of January.

Chris Burnup's picture
Chris Burnup's picture
Chris Burnup Tuesday, 16 Jan 2024 at 11:05am

Ha ha, well said!

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Tuesday, 16 Jan 2024 at 2:16pm

Indeed. If only the MJO also created damn good sand formations!!

benjis babe's picture
benjis babe's picture
benjis babe Wednesday, 17 Jan 2024 at 8:20am

we are so desperate for some banks at my local, been here
36 yrs and never seen it like this

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Tuesday, 16 Jan 2024 at 2:19pm

"The majority of the global forecasting models have it sitting east of Cairns, too far north and west to generate swell that'll impact the south-east Queensland and NSW coast." That's a little harsh to the GFS model. It's latest run certainly has swell potential, albeit a long way out (in terms of time).

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Tuesday, 16 Jan 2024 at 5:55pm

00z has just gone ballistic.

stinky_wes's picture
stinky_wes's picture
stinky_wes Wednesday, 17 Jan 2024 at 10:27am

Isn't the general rule to never trust GFS >3 days when there's a cyclone in the model? I recall a few years ago they had 4-5 intense cyclones between WA and New Caledonia on their long-term charts haha

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Wednesday, 17 Jan 2024 at 10:28am

Indeed, grain of salt etc.

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Wednesday, 17 Jan 2024 at 10:35am

Fair to say however that most reliable models are progging a TC next week. Just question of track is the unknown at this point.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Wednesday, 17 Jan 2024 at 10:35am

Oh yeah, 100% there'll be one.

the-u-turn's picture
the-u-turn's picture
the-u-turn Tuesday, 16 Jan 2024 at 5:00pm

Craig, you're a man of influence.
A little shift favouring the wave hungry would be appreciated.

vicbloke's picture
vicbloke's picture
vicbloke Wednesday, 17 Jan 2024 at 11:12am

Yeah Craig, about 500ks south of Port Lincoln would be grateful.

Surfnazi's picture
Surfnazi's picture
Surfnazi Tuesday, 16 Jan 2024 at 5:12pm

With a La Nina outlook are we looking at good chances of cyclone swells pushing south in Western Australia this season?

trevbucky's picture
trevbucky's picture
trevbucky Wednesday, 17 Jan 2024 at 5:30pm

If only! Still dreaming of that classic Cyclone Marcus day a few years back.

Standingleft's picture
Standingleft's picture
Standingleft Wednesday, 17 Jan 2024 at 12:28pm

Craig have you said before something like 'the tropics are expanding' ??
Is this what that looks like ?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 18 Jan 2024 at 8:00am

Indeed.

Also, I posted in the Climate Change thread, what we're seeing with the warming planet and warming at the poles is a weakening of the polar vortex.

The polar vortex traps polar air around the poles, and the stronger it is, the more contained it is.

With a weaker polar vortex we see this air escape in the form of Rossby Waves, ie bit cold outbreaks which we're seeing across Europe and the US. So larger variability in the weather and climate.

Standingleft's picture
Standingleft's picture
Standingleft Thursday, 18 Jan 2024 at 3:59pm

tried other weather sites, you are by far the most congenial. TFYW

dean maddison's picture
dean maddison's picture
dean maddison Wednesday, 17 Jan 2024 at 3:55pm

Come on Craig do something.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Wednesday, 17 Jan 2024 at 3:57pm

I'm trying but the best it's done is go more into south-east QLD and with strength! :o

burleigh's picture
burleigh's picture
burleigh Wednesday, 17 Jan 2024 at 6:00pm

everyone start reserving your carpark at Noosa.

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Wednesday, 17 Jan 2024 at 6:07pm
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Wednesday, 17 Jan 2024 at 6:08pm

If Vic is getting QLD's weather then QLD is getting the Bible's...

ConorG's picture
ConorG's picture
ConorG Wednesday, 17 Jan 2024 at 7:17pm

All the board riders up in Darwin will be frothing if they get a decent wave up north.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 18 Jan 2024 at 7:51am

The crossing and track all depends on how quickly that high fills into the Bight late next week/weekend.

It's going to be interesting watching over the coming days.

Standingleft's picture
Standingleft's picture
Standingleft Thursday, 18 Jan 2024 at 4:11pm

high in the bight influences Coral sea cyclone behaviour!? Fascinating & always learning on Swellnet. Accurate cyclone predicting, is that possible?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 18 Jan 2024 at 4:20pm

Yeah will muscle in and push it off to the east.

dawnperiscope's picture
dawnperiscope's picture
dawnperiscope Thursday, 18 Jan 2024 at 10:56am

You answered my question without even asking, nice!
Off topic but - eyes further north and that low in the North Pac looks impressive

bbbird's picture
bbbird's picture
bbbird Thursday, 18 Jan 2024 at 7:24pm

looking east atm..... The south pacific has double barrel high stretching a fetch from S. America to NZ (12000km)...
with a turbo boost below Fiji to Oz to fuel any cyclone
https://metvuw.com/forecast/forecast.php?type=rain&region=spacific&noofd...

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Thursday, 18 Jan 2024 at 9:09pm

Yes that’s the fetch I was referring to in the other forecast page the other day. Damn impressive length.

skunktour's picture
skunktour's picture
skunktour Friday, 19 Jan 2024 at 7:44am

What model does windy run off? Potential for it to run down the coast It feels like we’re due for a cyclone down our way (fnc).. the water temp is warm enough!

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 19 Jan 2024 at 7:47am

On initial load it's ECMWF.

Yendor's picture
Yendor's picture
Yendor Saturday, 20 Jan 2024 at 3:52pm

You can choose the model down the bottom of the page to see what the others are predicting.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 19 Jan 2024 at 8:56am

"ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP FLARING CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE"

Deep flaring convection.. mmmmmm.

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout Friday, 19 Jan 2024 at 9:07am

Cyclone time, I want Cruisin to come out of the woodwork and confuse me!

skunktour's picture
skunktour's picture
skunktour Friday, 19 Jan 2024 at 9:31am

Yep been waiting for his input! haha

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 19 Jan 2024 at 9:32am

Wait till it starts taking shape and the image porn comes in ;)

Standingleft's picture
Standingleft's picture
Standingleft Thursday, 25 Jan 2024 at 1:23pm

How's the cyclogenis ?

Standingleft's picture
Standingleft's picture
Standingleft Friday, 19 Jan 2024 at 1:32pm

explosive cyclogenesis ?
Oh that felt good
Images please
Son returning to work in Townsville on Sunday night though

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Friday, 19 Jan 2024 at 3:22pm

Hey Craig. Any chance you can please provide a link to the EC TC strike probability chart that you posted in the article above please. (Doesn’t have to be that date just the latest model run is fine).

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 19 Jan 2024 at 7:17pm
donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Friday, 19 Jan 2024 at 8:32pm

Thanks Craig. And I see GFS is starting to push back the deepening and tracking south of the TC in each run too. That’s never a good sign.

Patrick0710's picture
Patrick0710's picture
Patrick0710 Friday, 19 Jan 2024 at 3:38pm

Barely 20 degrees in Melbourne today, about to hit 50 in the Pilbara.

wingnut2443's picture
wingnut2443's picture
wingnut2443 Saturday, 20 Jan 2024 at 5:29am

Anecdotal conundrums around here.

Ghost crabs haven't bolted west, yet.

But.

Sand dunes are showing significant reserves, 100+ metres in spots eastward.

Natures prepped for a battering but the natives aren't restless yet.

Standingleft's picture
Standingleft's picture
Standingleft Thursday, 25 Jan 2024 at 9:14am

Any movement in the crab population Wingo? Cyclone doesn't look quite as big or intense as the forecasts

tip-top1's picture
tip-top1's picture
tip-top1 Saturday, 20 Jan 2024 at 6:38am

just ran through all the models on windy, townsville looks to get a battering.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Saturday, 20 Jan 2024 at 4:28pm

Looks like a dud now for swell production. But following it a good run of ese-se trade energy.

bbbird's picture
bbbird's picture
bbbird Sunday, 21 Jan 2024 at 3:28pm

Tropical Cyclone Kirrily headed for Townsville - Bowen Qld ETA 25th Jan
https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/tropical-cyclone-kirrily-headed-for-...

evosurfer's picture
evosurfer's picture
evosurfer Sunday, 21 Jan 2024 at 5:58pm

Well that sucks

mitchvg's picture
mitchvg's picture
mitchvg Sunday, 21 Jan 2024 at 8:46pm

rare mention of the PDO Pacific Decadal Oscillation. It's north hemi focussed but you don't hear much about it

?t=3122&si=UAF9gJYryctck4y8

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 25 Jan 2024 at 8:48am

Thanks Mitch, yeah the current negative PDO phase looks to have played some sort of negative interference with the current El Niño.

Nick Gee's picture
Nick Gee's picture
Nick Gee Monday, 22 Jan 2024 at 12:54am

current long range (ACCESS i think..?) has the tropical low headed back out to sea after making landfall and looking pretty intense while tracking down and out to the East.... might send some NE swell down the NSW coast?

sean killen's picture
sean killen's picture
sean killen Monday, 22 Jan 2024 at 8:05am

That would be nice ..if she heads back out to sea

Nick Gee's picture
Nick Gee's picture
Nick Gee Monday, 22 Jan 2024 at 11:51pm

and... it's gone. now continuing over land but still heading South and intensifying. looks like there's still a lot of potential paths.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 25 Jan 2024 at 8:21am

Keep an eye on the developments for early February, could be another TC firing up in the Coral Sea (not great for swell again) with the MJO stalling and re-strengthening in the Western Pacific.

There's the chance for a simultaneous TC forming south of Fiji as well that would be better positioned, though we'd still need the supporting ridge.

eat-your-vegies's picture
eat-your-vegies's picture
eat-your-vegies Thursday, 25 Jan 2024 at 11:01pm

Yep Craig
Tropicaltidbits has it b lining for nth nsw.
But we’re a long way out .
16 days for that forcast.

offshoreozzie's picture
offshoreozzie's picture
offshoreozzie Tuesday, 6 Feb 2024 at 4:11am

Why do cyclones NEVER cross the equator?? Why do they rarely form within 300 kms?
Kinda makes you go "huh?!?!" doesn't it.....
https://assets.iflscience.com/assets/articleNo/68082/iImg/66599/tropical...

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Tuesday, 6 Feb 2024 at 5:25am

That's an easy one to explain. The Coriolis Force is 0 at the equator and increases in strength away from it, being strongest at the poles.

Tropical cyclones need the Coriolis Force to really get going and to also maintain their rotation, hence falling apart when nearing the equator.

On that map you can see the effect of the Coriolis force steering storms to the left in the Southern Hemisphere and right in the Northern Hemisphere.