This El Niño Is Not Like The Others
The weather report: Storms, heavy downpours, cooler weather.
The weather forecast: Storms, heavy downpours, cooler weather.
After a hot and dry start to spring, the south-east of the country has since settled back into a cooler, wetter pattern, while at the same time the west has baked under record heat.
It's not quite the El Niño we were expecting.
Waves and weather you'd expect in winter, not an El Niño spring (Brokensha)
For East Coasters, it's a lesson that not all El Niño's equate to howling north-easters, and relentless inland heat.
In fact, of the two, La Niña has a greater and more predictable influence across the country. This is due to the close proximity of La Nina's main driver. Namely, warmer than normal sea surface temperatures. The warm water pools to the north of the country, resulting in cool and moist easterly winds, increased rainfall, and more swell activity from the east.
The warm water also produces lower pressure which then shifts the sub-tropical high-pressure belt further south during summer and autumn.
During El Niño, the driving forces operate at arm's length from Australia; the warm water signal sitting way out in the central and eastern Pacific. This is why El Niño's don't always play a major predictable factor in the weather and swell climate for the country. Conversely, it's why El Niño is more prominent in America.
Generally speaking though, during El Niño rising air in the central/eastern Pacific travels back to the west and descends across the Indonesian region, leading to suppressed tropical activity and less moisture for the country. Cooler waters developing off Indonesia also enhance this moisture deficit, bringing drier, warmer weather to Australia.
But when we take a look at the current sea surface temperatures around Australia we can see why this El Niño is wetter than expected.
Apart from the Coral Sea, sea surface temperatures are higher than normal for this time of year (warm anomalies), and we've even got marine heatwave conditions forming in the Tasman Sea.
The Indian Ocean Dipole - which caused cooler water off Indonesia - was a strong event yet it focussed a little further west and not immediately off eastern Indonesia. This has seen water temps rise immediately north-west of the country.
To show how this El Niño differs from others, let's compare the current sea surface temperature anomalies to the last time we had a combination of strong El Niño and positive IOD. That was the 1997/1998 event.
First, I’ve plotted the sea surface temperature anomalies for October 1997, and below that the sea surface temperature anomalies for October 2023.
El Niño signature October 1997 (Climate Reanalyzer.org)
El Niño signature October 2023 (Climate Reanalyzer.org)
What stands out is the amount of extra heat in the oceans between each event, spaced two and a half decades apart.. The classic warm El Niño tongue through the Pacific Ocean is clearly evident in both images, yet in the second it doesn't stand out as much; there are many regions of warm water.
So far, the 2023 El Niño signal isn’t as strong as it was in 1997, and to make this clearer, the third image below is the difference between 1997 and 2023.
Difference between this years El Niño and 1997's (Climate Reanalyzer.org)
The warm temperature signature throughout the western North and South Pacific is significant, as is the warm pool sitting directly offshore around the north-west and south-east of Australia. You can also see the warm pool through the central and eastern Pacific is weaker (not as warm) this year compared to the 1997 event.
The warm sea surface temperatures surrounding Australia are the sources for a more saturated atmosphere, hence the persistent troughiness and instability across the southern states.
This is preventing high pressure from setting up camp in the Tasman Sea. The result so far has been pulses of fun, close-range swell without any persistent, embedded north-east wind.
Not a classic El Niño by any means and it looks to persist into the coming summer months.
On a final note, the North Pacific season is still looking healthy, with the warm anomailes sitting east of Japan fuelling any storms that spawn in the region.
Comments
Little climate change bonus?
Most models forecasting a breakdown of this El Niño and a return of La Niña around mid next year. Perhaps the above is already a sign the El Niño is decaying.
BTW how’d you do the 2023-1997 chart? Impressed.
Here Don, can take years from each other which is handy!
https://climatereanalyzer.org/research_tools/monthly_maps/
Thanks Craig
Hours of fun in that Craig, thanks.
Isn't it!
Thanks Craig, that makes it all clearer.
"Not a classic El Niño by any means and it looks to persist into the coming summer months."
Does that include the persistent Vic SE onshores (shudder)?
Heart deadset slammed into the floor reading that line. If we persist with much more of this week just gone, I'm not sure my mental state is ready for it. Surf aside, just give me a decent summer on the beaches!
LOL full burn ,
Are we turning more tropical?
If you want to see the wider picture about this Weather watch Tv New Zealand super informitive for the layman he just did a monthly outlook for Australia and it explains this weather pattern Don't think the heats not coming back
Yeah it will come back, but in general the East Coast is looking a little buffered and wetter than normal over the coming summer.
Thanks Craig
Thank you - not a resource I considered in the past until you referred to it. I watched the video and found it very helpful and informative. I'm now a subscriber.
Great article and explanation Craigos.
How do you interpret the media's reporting of the summer El Niño we are heading into? Seems a bit simplified and catastrophising to my untrained eye
Yep, most media seem to persist with the long dry hot summer forecast. Reading this info, doesn't lend itself to that in reality?
Totally agree Seabiscuit. Media don’t do shades of grey, it’s all catastrophising, boogey man shit.
Tom, the ABC weatherman is the best I have seen. He explained quite a while ago why this years El Niño might not be typical for us, including references to El Niño events after a multi-year La Niña.
Everyone thinks the weather forecasters are shit, mainly because they also don’t deal with nuance, and only read newspaper headlines.
Weather forecasting is the cutting edge of science, and they get it right a lot more than people realise.
Some people insist that their ‘local’ weather app is brilliant and shits all over the BOM forecasts. I have to tell them their weather app is taken directly from the BOM’s work. Still, none so deaf as those who won’t hear.
Too true
Solid post.
His choice of outfits might be a little off centre, but his weather reports are spot on.
A Headwind or tailwind dependant on your outlook.
The other factor of course, is it only takes one coastal crossing and inland track from a TC to completely change the picture as far as rain goes.
GFS model today has a cyclone moving south onto QLD in 2 weeks.
Hope the sand is lined up,... somewhere....
https://www.swellnet.com/news/swellnet-analysis/2023/12/01/the-restless-...
Hey Craig has the amount of warm sea surface temperature in the 2023 October chart looked like that before in the past. The whole world looks warm as ocean wise
Great work Craig.
Do cyclones pulling heat out of the ocean have an impact on extended SSTs or are the cool paths they leave behind just localised and short lived?
Perhaps we need another term for this event
' El Nino Mojado '
and then , when we get a different La Nina next year
"La Nina Seca "
........
I noticed this week the water had jumped a couple of degrees down here good stuff except for the shite east coast weather we are getting the tail of. E-SE persistent drizzle and average swell.
How awesome to see that we all evolve. Yes patterns repeat but the fractal representation of originality imbued with developmental amplification shows how blessed we are all. Fractals do reproduce, but by their very nature they can jump an octave
What does this mean for the South Aus coast? Conditions more similar to the la-nina times of recent years? November has been grim.
Nah, more normal summer patterns. Highs passing by with one-two days of winds from the north-eastern quadrant before S/SE winds kick back in. Mostly onshore slop, as per the normal summer diet.
it's all relative. i go to SA every two years for Christmas for a week or so.. based on surf reports objectively better waves (actual groundswell too) at the beach i head to than my local Sydney beach in the same period... also.. VERY uncrowded.
Indeed, I'm with you on that, always score a fun wave!
A current look at the SST anomalies around Australia. Warm!
What are your thoughts on the Japan ski season, could it mean more storms but wetter and worse snow quality
So far so good at the Honshu ski locations. They are getting some proper snow falls and the lifts are spinning already.
Wow, look at the water around east Tassie
Just declared a marine heatwave event..
El Niño may be taking a bit of a pause at the moment but it’s still a brown algal soup on the MNC in the surf, left over from the last burst of upwellings. Hopefully there is some cyclone swell to break it up.
Check out the warming trend around the country the last seven days. The Bight, Coral and northern Tasman Seas have jumped 1.5-2°C compared to the week previous..
Here's the current start of play now, warm all around..
at this rate might be surfing in boardshorts on the SC....if there is any surf that is
Craig: I wonder if the boffins on Sydney/Hobart race have taken this into account given that changes in temperature of water will change both the density and surface tension and the ability to float can also change. Normal sailors no but these are highly tuned maxi yachts . Any insight ?
I've got a mate on Law Connect, will ask him.
Thanks Craig
I wasn't sure and didn't check before if maxi yachts have a water ballast system but have now read that Comanche does so maybe they just make very slight adjustments through that.
Presume you are watching, it's tight....Would love to be there, what a fantastic day.
Yep, what a finish!
Would love to be there, what a fantastic day
You puffing and sending wind from Sydney. LC upwind and has gained in last 30 mins, after all that distance sailed line finish down to 0.1Nm, incredible sailing and technology
Thanks for the ongoing explanation. I was wondering what the reason was for our wet weather here in the Illawarra and then found this article. I've shared with all my mates.
My pleasure, thanks for sharing it around.
This must be the wettest and coldest El Niño I ever experienced. I don’t remember the last time I was hot.
Sack the BOM. Frauds.
BoM trying to forecast 3-6 months out , ha , give me a spell .
There is soo much variability in climate .
Stick to 7 days BoM , you sometimes get that right
depends where you are flollo...
its been incredibly hot and humid here (SEQ), an amazing run of sultry weather with frequent storms, and looks much the same for the immediate forecast (next 5-7 days). But interestingly some quite cool (but very brief) changes coming through after some storms, I suspect due to all the hail in the systems?
Ho Ho Ho
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/hail-storm-brings-white-christmas-to...
We've got some significant heating throughout the Coral Sea, even in the wake of STC Jasper..
Also note the cool signal off South Australia's South East thanks to strong, upwelling south-east winds.
Does this mean likely more cold weather and se winds for Victoria, Craig? Not sure I can take anymore.
We've got a trip scheduled later in January off the Northern GBR checking the extent and severity of the looming bleaching event up that way. Not looking too flash for corals this summer!
The current doldrums pattern in the CS combined with cloud-free/max UV set-up will really heat it up.
I read yesterday a big hole opened on the Sun on the 2nd of December .
Grew to its max in 24 hours ( 59 Earths ) .
Spewing Sun Stuff directly at Earth .
Not sure how this stuff works ( usually the opposite of what I expect ) but Summer seemed to get turned off here in Melbourne around then .
Starting to feel like another Claytons Summer ( number 4 in a row ) .
Still very warm waters off NSW and SE Qld, around the 26 degree mark, pushing 27 around K'gari. Positive anomalies persist right down into Tasmania where the marine heatwave was declared last week.
However, if you're looking to surf in South Oz, water temps around Robe (in the south-east) are around 13 degrees, which is 4 degrees below average. A similar pattern is showing across the lower Eyre Peninsula, between Port Lincoln and Elliston.
This pattern is due to local upwelling (locally known around Robe as the Bonney Coast upwelling system), which Craig discussed in this article last January.
https://www.swellnet.com/news/swellnet-analysis/2023/01/31/southern-bloom
We seem to have a slightly more normal pattern for the next two weeks with a large high pressure systems setting up in the Tasman. So we can expect notherlies here in the Illawarra.
At the same time, it’s not sunny and warm as it would normally be with the influence of the high in the Tasman. NE wind forecast but still we and drizzly.
Is this just a temporary reprieve before we go back to the more “thoughy” conditions we experienced during December? Or is this how we should expect the weather to be even with high pressures in the Tasman?