Christmas 2021 National Forecast
I hope you've asked for something other than surf in your Christmas stocking.
You see, Santa has dropped the bauble and most coastal regions will fall quiet around the 25th, sitting in between active periods of surf.
Starting with WA's South West, and following large surf this afternoon and tomorrow morning, the size will fade into the end of the week as the heat turns up. The Christmas weekend will be a scorcher with strong, hot, offshore winds though no significant swell to fan.
Boxing Day will be the best bet for a wave across the Margaret River region with a small increase in size and gusty offshore winds ahead of a late afternoon S'ly change. The rest of the state will be ideal for swimming.
For the southern states a flurry of strong frontal activity that's now slowly winding down will give way to a strong high pressure system edging in from under the Bight. This will bring cool S/SE winds to South Australia with small to tiny levels of swell. There's little risk of new boards getting dinged.
Victoria won't fare any better with fresh and cool S/SW winds and a low point in swell energy on Christmas Day. Stronger onshore winds across both states on Boxing Day will bring a building southerly windswell, so plan your day around the cricket rather than the surf.
For Tasmania there should be a small but fun south-east groundswell in the water for Christmas Day. This will favour the North East coast over the South Arm with inconsistent 3ft sets due on the swell magnets. Conditions will be favourable as well as a strong cold front pushes across the state bringing offshore winds to the NE ahead of an early afternoon S/SE change. Clifton will be clean at dawn but inconsistent and only likely 1-1.5ft, with a SW change moving through by mid-morning. Both regions should see some building south-west swell Sunday but with onshore winds.
Looking at Christmas Day on the East Coast, and southern NSW will perform better than further north, with the south-east groundswell that's due to impact Tasmania also making its presence felt. This swell is being generated today by a small fetch of SE gales well south of New Zealand and should build to 2-3ft through the day across south swell magnets. Conditions should be clean early when the swell is smallest ahead of afternoon NE sea breezes, while the South Coast will see a S/SE change pushing north through the day. The swell looks to ease through Sunday but with poor, strengthening S/SE winds.
The groundswell will be a touch smaller, less consistent, and arrive later on Christmas Day for the Mid North Coast and North Coast. Winds will be light Christmas morning though with a small, background 1-2ft of swell while Sunday morning is worth a look on the back beaches for inconsistent 2ft+ sets.
The Gold and Sunny Coasts look generally clean each morning, but unfortunately tiny.
If this makes for depressing reading then don't despair, while Santa won't provide much this Christmas, we have some juicier developments into the New Year for the East Coast with increasing tropical activity and resultant swell (though with rain). Keep an eye on the regional Forecaster Notes for the specifics regarding this.
Have a happy and safe Christmas, from everyone at the Swellnet team.
Comments
The East Coast is shaping up post-Xmas.
My Christmas will be travelling on a boat to a secret spot up the coast boat trip only access..conditions look great for it but its a treck..Marzo used to surf it in vids.
Then coming back for a seafood bbq buffet at lunch time. Sounds good to me..Merry xmas everyone.
SE coast of NSW with swell.......and rain, and cold and it can rain there. Would be fun to get that area with swell and sun but beggars can't be choosers.
Merry Xmas to all. Special mention to Stu and Freeride for providing insights and discussion points. All helps, especially during flat spells.
thanks Stu for all your advice etc over the year; have a fun break.
Thank you gentlemen for all that you do especially you Craig , looking forward to some waves around new year’s. Stay healthy and happy over xmas and into the new year.
Thanks Supa, you too!
Looks like we have a cyclone crossing from the top end late next week.
Yep, looks to form Christmas Day.
Merry Christmas to all and thanks to the team.
Steve's forecast notes are always a great read.
Talking WSL with Stu, should be a great year ahead.
Craigs insightful articles and some x-over BC and surf chat on another site.
And the steady and thoughtful steering from Ben the boss is always there.
Personally I'm happy with baby food today and tomorrow, looking forward to some more waves next week, yew!!!!
Thanks Belly, Merry Xmas to you too.
Here's to good health and great waves for everyone in 2022, and thanks for the perspectives of '21.
All the best for Xmas and the New Year Craig, Steve, Ben and Stu. Love ya work as always. Cheers!