Swell of the season inbound for Indonesia
The Indian and Southern Oceans have been pumping out plenty of swell over the last couple of weeks with back to back groundswells for Indonesia and Western Australia. However, those swells will pale into comparison against a swell due next week, which will be the largest of the current winter season.
It was just under a year ago that a couple of unknown Russian and Brazilian surfers took on maxing Uluwatu with jetskis and tow boards. On the 25th of July, arguably the biggest footage we've seen of Uluwatu being surfed hit the internet, 15-20ft and breaking from the Bommie all the way towards Padang.
The coming swell looks to fall just short of that swell, but it'll light up every exposed coastline from the Maldives to Tasmania.
This coming weekend we'll see a broad node of the Long Wave Trough strengthen across the southern Indian Ocean (see image below), and this will in turn supercharge a developing polar frontal system forming in the Heard Island region.
A wide and expansive fetch of severe-gale 40-45kt W/SW winds will move on top an active sea state, generating a significant swell in its own right (30ft+ of open ocean swell) but on top of this we'll see storm-force 50-60kt winds adding the icing to a very bountiful cake.
With core winds being so strong, a long-period and extra-large groundswell event will be generated for Western Australian and eastern Indonesia, though north-west winds will limit surfing options on Australia's West Coast when it peaks on Wednesday. Margaret River is expected to reach 20-25ft with larger sets at offshore bommies, while the swell will continue north into Indonesia, arriving later Thursday and peaking Friday at 12-15ft across Uluwatu.
This swell will have a little more west in its direction compared to last July's event, which may help to get into some corners though it could just as easily hinder the swell from propagating up some of Indonesia's straits. Local knowledge will be key.
South Australia and Victoria will see large long-period surf from the storm, though with the westerly direction there'll be a large discrepancy in sizes. A bonus though will be a large blocking high sitting across the eastern part of the country, directing favourable north-northeast winds for those spots exposed to the incoming swell later week.
Need a personalised surf forecast for your next trip, anywhere in the world? Check out Swellnet Traveller.
Uluwatu 16 Day Forecast Graph
Uluwatu WAMs
Margaret River 16 Day Forecast Graph
Margaret River WAMs
Comments
Sadly the last few weeks on social media i keep seeing pics from Mentawais and other areas of Sumatra and there always seems to be like 5 boats sitting on one break.
Seems like the crowds this year are worse than ever :( i really wish the government and resorts and even the charter boat operators would get together and put a cap on charter boat numbers.
Yes there is also more camps and resorts, but they dont sit anchored on a wave all day long and actually bring some benefit to the local community/governments.
Just got back from a trip on Friday and was on the Barrenjoey. We scored heaps of waves and Greg the guide was awesome, knows his way like no other and dodged the other boats. Surfed a couple of places like Thunders Rags and Greenbush with very few to no people and also a couple of less known spots. It was probably the most consistent 2 weeks of swell I have had in the Mentawai.
Hopefully the Big Wave Maniacs will be more onto it this swell...last year at Nias was good but to see those boys paddling Ulu at 15+ ft..YEH !
I would respectfully partly disagree indo-dreaming. The proliferation of land camps means that if there's 5 dudes surfing a break and conditions turn on the speed boats can bomb the break with 80+ people in minutes. Rifles is a perfect example of this and is a circus mid season. I don't know what the answer is though
Resort/camp boats come and go though, they have to go home for lunch and are more likely to do other activities especially now places have pools etc.
Boats though are aways sitting at a break only time they don't is at night when they find a safe anchorage or when moving elsewhere. (if winds go say strong southerly when trades push up and options limited they all sit at that one or two options)
They also have little to do outside of surfing, basically watching movies or drinking so every guest tends to spend more time in the water...sure its great from a get waves for $$$ perspective.
But for everyones overall enjoyment it sucks.
A few years ago at the Telos surfed pinnacles for days with just our boat. Now a resort there. A permanent crowd. Same trip at churches on one day there were 15 boats anchored in the channel. 13 were resort boats with 5 to 10 people on each as it was the only spot out of the wind.
It is basically an everyone problem.
Mount everest syndrome. Too many people wanting to go and too many people making money off people going.
Got to say ive never seen anywhere near those numbers of the 5 resorts all but one take 8- 10 surfers and one resort has actually been shut for over a year.
More than three resort boats at one time is rare, more than two charter boats is rare, but it does happen.
Pinnacles is rarely crowded when its offshore there is quite a few other waves offshore, it a pretty average wave most days anyway.
Pinnacles have capacity to take a heap of guest, but they claim to limit surfer numbers to 10
the set-up at Macaronis seems better than a free for all.
Give me a boat over a land camp any day of the week..
Way more freedom.
Sure you're not just shitty because you've invested in a camp IndoD?
I was interested to know with last years mega Ulu swell how it was at G-Land? Any footage?
Way to big for main reef Chickens,20 20s was the go.
how much size at those spots out of interest? have always wondered how much size they'd handle.
Yes, I've always wondered what it would look like on a REALLY big swell. And I wonder how big it would be down the point. I guess it would depend on the direction. I'd love to see footage. I've been there with 15ft faces and it was impressive but something like last year's swell would be incredible to see.
Surfed chickens at 6ft solid once May 18 2007 could handle bigger easy
My 4th (and last) visit to the Mentawais was May last year. May used to be a good month to go there with plenty of opportunity for early Winter swell action without the crowds being over the top.
Not anymore. The joint is packed from March to October and even outside those months it's busy due to (mostly) limited swell and everyone heading to the magnets.
You know it's time to look for somewhere else to go when you're sharing a line up with chicks from Belgium and blokes from Italy.
Not to mention the angry Victorians and a WA bloke who head-butts a piece of hardwood!!
Late August last year, HT's was 3-4ft, 5 boats + the happy campers. ..was a bit of a joke...but lucky was on a boat where the skip was happy to travel and we got some juice down south with only us.
Early September last year was busy everyday
of my trip to Macaronis resort but if you can surf semi ok you'll still get plenty of waves, especially when it gets more solid. I managed to surf 2-3 times a day, ate and drank like a king and wow what a wave, sooo bloody consistent and it even handles upto 20knots of an onshore wind but somehow still lines up down the reef, nowhere else, have i ever witnessed that.
Heading to Broome in a couple of days, is there any chance that coast will benefit from this swell?
Yeah look for long-period groundswell lines at Cable Beach on Friday.
Incoming tide.
Don’t park your car on the beach while you surf or else it’ll be a submarine by the time you get back.
Hire a boat and head out to Rowley Shoals....take a Gun
Shame its so far out at sea
Cheers Craig. You bloody ripper!
That system slingshots eh. Maybe a few biggies.
Airfares are of the scale though...peak season and holidays bad combo
I'm flying out tonight so have been watching the charts closely this week. Looks like a great swell that will last a long time, but the forecast charts have been scaled back a bit from a few days ago. The low was predicted to hit 929hpa and the storm was massive in size. It's now in the high 930s.
At least I get a few days warm up. Last few trips, it's been falling out of the sky on Day 1!!!
The current buoy forecasts are really similar to the swell Damien Hobgood won the Southern Hemisphere wave of the winter prize. Uluwatu was 10-12ft + (4-5 times overhead) and salt water was apparently flowing half a block into Kuta on the high tide. Cave at high tide was treacherous.
What are you packing, VL? Or have you got boards there?
Biggest board is a 7'0". I might have to pretend to like someone with a spare 8 footer.
You appear to be the kind of guy I prefer to have on my side in a bar room brawl. The one who says "if you mess with him your gonna have to mess with me".
Sorry Mango, I'm a lover not a fighter. If a bar room brawl looked like kicking off, I'd go into Kofi Annan UN peace maker mode. No fighting, but by the end of the night we'd all up drinking to each other's health and drunkenly announcing we're all "buddies for life".
Quite the diplomate for such gun pointing user image. The edgy side of me says your either similar to the little man behind the curtain in the wizard of oz, presenting a fake strong man image, a coward or with the talent to go now and see Trump in order to resolve the Iran USA pending war standoff. You pick what you are lover boy, I am just here for the online entertainment. Life is too short and fast for anything less than real. BTW, I never kiss ass or abandon my mate in bar room brawl and I am still one of the best international playboys out there. However I do appreciate the reply.
Not as south as Hobgood swell which was below 200°
Timed your run perfectly with the current Vicco outlook.
A mate of mine is up in Gnaraloo for the next couple of weeks. Hope he has a big board.
Or just plenty of coin for Fuel .
Chickens at 8ft .
800m rides
90sec rides
Super fast hard to make
*Not this swell tho
Rumors have confirmed that Andrey Ovchinnikov a.k.a. Dolphin, is gearing up to surf it again but this time with former Maui Jaws tow surfer and founder of the original hydrofoil kiteboard, Mango Carafino, oh wait a minute that's me. Amazing how social media allows me to toot my own horn, gotta love that and love one of the truest real deal surf websites on the net, SWELLNET.COM.
To all the supporter's and player haters. Wish us luck. You only live once and you live it faster than you can ever imagine.
In the words of Teddy "speak softly and carry a big stick, you will go a long way"
I'm supporting Ulus this time around......
@mango, Lol
Not just Indo...
The swell will peak across the Indonesian archipelago this Thursday. Here's the Chopes forecast from this Thursday onwards:
12ft here in SWWA and building this morning.
And this swell isn't even related. A totally seperate one.
Just an update, the core winds don't look to reach 50kt and size wise it looks like this swell will come in around 10-12ft.
Hey Craig, why no regular Indonesian forecaster notes this year?
The last one was in November last year???
Check this article here: https://www.swellnet.com/news/swellnet-dispatch/2019/05/16/introducing-swellnet-traveller
Naturaliste buoy Decreasing at today.
http://www.srosurf.com/naturalistebuoy.html
Yep and mid-period energy.
Nice late arvo sessions going down on the Bukit atm..
Solid!
Oh my god.
Insert heart emoji etc etc
That’s fucked up
dgapone insta - Taken out by your own ski rope.
Why they towing 8ft Uluwatu?
That was very lame..
Yes ..Tai Budda and Longbottom
Not this swell but from June 11th- ashley bickerton insta
60 yrs old setting a nice line into a nice Balangan tube...