From everyday garbage to a 50 year storm, the Rip Curl Bells rode the extremes. But the CT surfers are now on their way to Indonesia, a place known for being moderate. It's consistent, warm, and rarely too big.

The Keramas Bali Pro kicks off next Monday and while there are no large swells forecast through the period, we should see fun contestable days from day one, but more so towards the end of the first week.

The day before the contest kicks off - Sunday 12th - a large, long-period southwest groundswell will offer 6ft+ warm up waves, though they'll ease into Monday, with sets from 4-5ft. It's very likely to be a competition day.

The surf will ease further into Tuesday and Wednesday resulting in lay days, while from Thursday the first in a series of long-period S/SW groundswell pulses are due to fill in, owing to an active Southern Ocean storm track between Heard Island and Western Australia (see image below).

A progression of strong polar fronts should produce fun swells from a more favourable southerly angle, which will get into the east side of Bali, where Keramas is located.

Each pulse at this stage looks to come in around 4-5ft or so on the favourable pushes of the tide, and we'll see persistent E/SE trades through the event window, though as always Keramas will have light offshore winds each morning -  a phenomenon created by local downslope winds.

The first swell increase is expected on Thursday, building to 4-5ft and then easing Friday ahead of a long-period swell due Saturday afternoon and Sunday. From here we'll be looking at easing surf ahead of some possible large long-period SW groundswell at the end of the period.

So, from this vantage point it appears the first half of the Keramas Bali Pro will get exactly what's expected: rippable, head high to occasionally double-overhead waves, with offshore mornings. No surprises and no freakish weather.

We'll provide more updates as we get closer to the event.

Keramas 16 Day Surf Forecast Graph
Keramas 16 Day Surf Forecast Graph