Indonesia swell: Bigger than Muzza
We're right in the thick of an overactive swell period across the Indonesian archipelago, not to mention southern Australia.
A very large long-period S/SW groundswell is currently filling in across most locations, with pumping waves for the Rip Curl Cup, and while it's the biggest swell so far this year, we're looking at an even bigger swell next week.
As discussed in last week's article, the south-east Indian Ocean is experiencing the most active storm period in years due to consecutive nodes of the Long Wave Trough moving through the region.
The second node was forecast to be the strongest and most northerly protruding of the two, and we're now seeing this come to fruition with the biggest swell of the season so far due to hit Indonesian and West Australian coasts next week.
This node is expected to move very slowly east and effectively stall just west of Western Australia while reaching a peak in intensity, directing back to back storms more northward towards Indonesia, rather than eastward under Australia as was the case with the activity earlier this week.
With the node protruding further north than normal, we'll also see these storms push much further north in latitude, reaching a line drawn west from Ningaloo. This all points to a more consistent swell event for Indonesia, along with less size loss due to swell decay.
Looking at the structure of the frontal progression, and a mid-latitude storm has created an active sea state for a vigorous polar front to generate an expansive, slow moving fetch of severe-gale to storm-force winds over.
The fetch will remain near stationary while a secondary intensification will project storm-force winds north-east at a similar speed to the swell it's producing (known as a captured fetch) an over a very large open ocean sea state.
Under a captured fetch scenario we see faster and larger than normal wave growth and this will help push this swell into the XXL range with forerunners of 21 seconds, with the bulk of the groundswell coming in at an amazing 18-19 seconds.
This will produce very large and dangerous surf across most exposed locations (the largest of the season), building through Tuesday and likely reaching 10-12ft+ late in the day across eastern Indonesia, peaking Wednesday morning to 12ft to possibly 15ft.
The swell should impact the Mentawai islands only a couple of hours later, with magnets kicking to 10ft to likely 12ft on dark, peaking Wednesday morning to 12ft+.
The last swell of this magnitude was the June 2015 Murray Close (Muzza) swell. Comparing the two, this swell will have a touch more south in it, yet it'll be bigger for eastern Indonesia, pushing above the heights of three years ago.
For Western Australia, most, if not all, of the swell will go to waste, owing to the position of the Long Wave Trough just off the coast, bringing strong to gale-force onshore westerly winds.
Following Tuesday/Wednesday's XL swell event, follow up oversized groundswells are expected late week and into the following weekend, continuing the run of exceptional Indonesian swell.
For any changes to the timing and sizes regarding this swell, keep an eye on the Indonesian and regional Australian forecaster notes.
16 Day Uluwatu Forecast Graph
16 Day Uluwatu WAMs
16 Day Mentawai Forecast Graph
16 Day Mentawai WAMs
Comments
The trusty 8'2" Dylan is gona need an engine
Far out. What an amazing run of waves.
Big wave coming to bali !
Thanks on behalf of surfers around the country for putting inaccurate surf forecasting behind your ‘pay wall’. A deed that will not go unnoticed.
No one respond to this troll, he only wants some steam.
Last weeks swell was missing most of the reefs that I saw in Indo with the exception of Padang & Kuta reef due to the direction of the swell on Thurs & Friday however the nxt three days saw it settle a notch & line up better on the reefs over a broader distribution. It's interesting with these larger swells that are basically too big & intense for most locations (including places like G-land & outside corner) however if you have the knowledge time & money to get to certain reefs & point set ups that lay quite but do fire up on these intense Indian ocean mega swells. At the moment I'm recovering after several stitches to a head wound compliments of an Austrian surfer(ha, ha) who went over the falls right on top of me in 4ft waves at a nice right-hander up the coast with only 3 of us in the water. Should have kept the Gath stack hat on that I'd worn on the bigger days! IDIOT!!!
BaliBelly insta - 2nd pic a few of young fellas having a go at big Ulu
Def bigger than Muzza..
Terrible quality footage but excellent wave, incredible wave in fact, from a tow surfer at huge Ulus...
Haven't seen a board trail like that since a Captain Goodvibes animation...
That guy is ripping ...fucking monster wave !
Jesus fucking Christ
What a lucky bastard!
Beautiful wave, well surfed.
Like a shooting star, can only see his trail of whitewash.
nate_geier insta
marlon gerber insta for some Keramas action
Udo...
Copy link, paste.
Not that hard brother
You cant even see the bloke to gauge how big it is, which is enough to demonstrate the fact its monstrous! What a ride!
If there was a multiplier for size of wave * length of ride - how does that wave measure up? One of the longest big waves I've ever seen.
Mark Healy is in indo he should be out there paddling that
www.instagram.com/p/BlpOqfdgJAR
That is epic. what a wave.
That is epic. what a wave.
Keramas..
Gra whats Tenngerra report?
Hey mate. Tenggara's on tradewind hiatus for the moment. But ye gods it'd be macking (der, Gra). I nipped up there about a month ago & fell a little in love with that lineup, though the trades were already being unkind... Where you based Udo?
What an amazing wave.
Any word on who the tow surfer is?
Did he break the speed record or what?
Shows that he makes a barrel.
Crazy when you see it lining up.
Antman Pato?
Pato Teixeira ?
Andrei..?
Crazy ......en Russians!
What a charger!
Can you embed this one?
It has multiple stills.
Wow, monster, thanks Lostdoggy..
That surfer was Russian????
Was it Poots?
Appears to be a Russian/Brazilian teamed up.
Andrey Ovchinnikov & Eloy Lorenzo jr.
Brazilian dude in the video. Saw his name on some other insta post, but can’t find it on my phone.
https://instagram.com/p/BlpPiZjBYhl/
Eloylorenzojunior, apparently.
Bromley charging and sticking this insanely heavy drop.
Jaws like off North Sumatra..
Big Ulu's paddle by Matt Gwynne..
Wow. Wave of a lifetime. To think he nearly hit the eject button...sometimes you never know if you never go. Hellman!!
What a pic..wild explosion
Any think out there from Kandui ?
too big for Grajagan?
Joyos got a couple of pics..12 to 15 ft - one looks bigger to me.
https://thewest.com.au/news/bali/hotels-villas-flooded-as-bali-battered-...
"Ferries have been cancelled, hotels evacuated and holiday villas flooded in Bali.
"King tides are being blamed for waves as big as 6m in Bali’s south that has caused flooding in Sanur and Kuta.
Tourists have been stranded on the Gili Islands where authorities have cancelled ferry services until at least Saturday."
King tides ?
Bukit getting smashed yet again:
http://balibelly.com/uluwatu/
One guy out at Impossos!
Oh to be there with my DS.
Tow team have arrived at Impossibles.
Anyone got a Indo contact that can report on how the rockwall[s] at Nikko handled last weeks big stuff ?
Healys heavily glassed Padillac can survive macking Nias but not Lion Air baggage handlers its now in 2 pieces !
Heavy report about Jay Davies from over at Ski.com.au
"Young bloke was telling me today that Jay Davies almost lost his life at Scar Reef on the out of control day last week.
Huge huge rogue set cleaned him up. 3 wave hold down pulling him over the entire length of the reef. Jamie Mitchell rescued him on the ski (blue faced) before telling those few out there (getting towed) it was unsafe to continue...........not another wave was ridden or attempted after the incident."
So many close calls from that swell...A 3 wave hold down holy fuck !
Nias seem to have heavily flogged so many Exp waterman Healy etc
Elliot P Reid said worst flogging ever and a blackout..
Holy Jesus that Framegrab of Healy on Beachgrit...Faaark !