It's been a while since we've seen Teahupoo proper. Apart from the odd double-overhead day, the reef at Passe Havae hasn't been hit by anything approaching tow size for years.

The reason can be put down to the lack of strong storms sliding up past New Zealand's east coast, but why this occurred would require further investigation and is beyond the scope of this article.

However, this Saturday a large long-period SW groundswell is due to hit French Polynesian Island and finally awaken big Chopes.

Owen Wright standing tall way back in 2016 - Tim Bonython

Teahupoo's ideal swell window is directly off New Zealand's east coast, with fearsome west swells originating from strong polar storms projecting north-east up into the Pacific Ocean. These are created when the Long Wave Trough sits just east of New Zealand steering storms north-east along this path.

Currently, a deep low has formed between Tasmania and New Zealand and will move into Tahiti's south-western swell window this afternoon. It's worth noting this low has moved through Cloudbreak's swell window and will produce large pumping surf this Friday afternoon and Saturday morning.

Coming back to the storm, it will continue east instead of taking the ideal path up past New Zealand's east coast. This will put a cap on the size hitting Teahupoo. If it tracked more north-east we'd be seeing something truly spectacular.

However, with core wind speeds reaching 55-60kt and the broader fetch being mostly greater than 40kts we'll still see a large long-period groundswell created, with peak periods growing out to just over 20 seconds.

New Zealand will see XXL surf tomorrow, while the long-period forerunners are expected to arrive across Tahiti Friday evening and build through Saturday, reaching 8-10ft by the afternoon, with the chance of the odd bigger cleanup. This looks to be one of the better swells of recent times, especially with such large swell periods.

Beyond Saturday's SW groundswell additional large S/SW groundswells are due through next week as the Long Wave Trough stalls slightly east of New Zealand.

This will steer a flurry of back to back polar fronts through Tahiti's swell window, with the surf expected to ebb and pulse between 6-8ft from Tuesday afternoon through the end of the week with fresher easterly trades.

Tim Bonython will be heading off this Thursday to capture the week of swell, and with the lack of waves over the past couple of years, there's sure to be plenty of action and carnage. Keep an eye on the site for the latest on how the swells play out.