Forecast update: Rip Curl Pro Bells Beach
The Rip Curl Pro waiting period kicks off tomorrow and as outlined in last Tuesday's early forecast, the outlook is favourable for the coming Easter Long Weekend.
A strong node of the Long Wave Trough is bringing a flurry of polar and mid-latitude storm activity under the Australian continent into Victoria's swell window .
Currently a polar front is projecting up towards the country, with a mid-latitude front due to piggyback on top of this, passing under WA today before pushing east closer towards Victoria tomorrow.
This will produce a moderate sized west-southwest groundswell for late Thursday but more so Friday, coming in at 4-5ft on the sets at Bells under offshore winds (Wednesday and Thursday will likely be lay days due to lack of swell). The late morning high tide may create a few issues and winds will shift W/SW around midday, though a full day of surfing is likely with the swell.
Saturday will continue to see plenty of good sized sets in the 4ft+ range as we see the polar front develop into a low and stall in our south-western swell window on Thursday, producing a reinforcing south-west groundswell. Winds will again be favourable all morning and offshore, swinging south-west into the afternoon.
We can expect the swell to ease through Sunday from around 3ft+, though conditions will be great again through the morning with a north-west offshore ahead of afternoon sea breezes. They'll probably tick off a few heats before calling it a day into the afternoon.
Monday looks like a lay day as the swell continues to ease though with morning offshore winds ahead of a south-west change.
Looking deeper into the waiting period and the models diverge on the strength, positioning and track of a series of storms moving in from the west over the weekend and early next week.
There's plenty of positive activity but it's too early to pin down the specifics unfortunately. We're due to see a new W/SW swell Tuesday but winds could be dicey. We'll continue to monitor the outlook and provide updates in the comments below.
Wednesday: Small fading 1-2ft sets. Fresh N tending NW and then W/SW winds.
Thursday: Small to tiny ahead of a late pulse of W/SW swell to 2-3ft. Moderate W/NW tending W/SW winds.
Friday: Good W/SW groundswell to 4-5ft on the sets. Moderate to fresh W/NW winds, swinging W/SW midday.
Saturday: SW groundswell to 4ft+. Light NW winds ahead of SW sea breezes.
Sunday: Easing SW groundswell from 3ft+. Light NW winds ahead of SW sea breezes.
Monday: Small SW swell from 2ft+. Possible new swell later. Fresh NW winds ahead of a SW change.
Tuesday: New SW swell. Onshore SW winds.
Wednesday: Easing SW swell. Variable winds ahead of SE sea breezes.
Comments
Great work with your long range forecast from the other article Craig ;-)
Following the front on the 2nd it's looking a bit 'zonal' - they might have to surf Tues / Weds to finish?
Somebody's awareness is a bit lacking... :o
For DicVocal, seems very consistent with Craig's forecast you whinger.
https://new.surfline.com/surf-news/rip-curl-pro-bells-beach-comp-officia...
WEDNESDAY 28th: Fading surf, becoming minimal.
SWELL/SURF: Shorter period leftovers of old SW swell fading out. Likely still occasional sets up to chest high early, but easing to waist high or less over the morning and into the afternoon.
WIND: Breezy offshore NW wind kicks off the morning, which will gradually decrease through the day and veer West then eventually onshore from the South in the afternoon at moderate levels.
TIDES: 4.1’ high at 8:10am, 1’ low at 2:47pm.
THURSDAY 29th: Very small surf for much of the day, then starting to pick up late.
SWELL/SURF: Minor SW swell with waves around waist high or less for much of the day. Watch for signs of the new swell late in the day with waist-chest occasional head high sets rising up before dark.
WIND: Light+ offshore WNW-West wind through the morning, becoming light/variable mid-day, then light+ onshore from the SE-ESE in the afternoon.
TIDES: 4’ high at 9:29am, 1.2’ low at 4:04pm.
FRIDAY 30th: Solid well overhead sets all day (7-10’+ faces) and good conditions.
SWELL/SURF: New WSW-SW swell (255-225°) tops out and holds steady through the day. Sets mainly around the 2-3 feet overhead to double overhead zone, with occasional larger waves wrapping in.
WIND: Moderate offshore NW-WNW wind in the first half of morning, veering more westerly for second half of morning, then side-offshore from the WSW-SW in the afternoon.
TIDES: 2’ low at 4:55am, 4.1’ high at 10:56am, 1.3’ low at 5:27pm.
SATURDAY 31st: Solid overhead surf continues (6-9’+ faces) and good conditions.
SWELL/SURF: Although the raw offshore swell starts to ease, the angle shifts a little more southerly (SW 210-240°), which is more favorable for Bells. Overall, surf will be just a notch down from Friday, but still holding solid all day with overhead to well overhead sets.
WIND: Light+ offshore westerly wind through the morning, becoming light/variable mid-day, then light+ onshore from the SE in the afternoon.
TIDES: 1.7’ low at 6:14am, 4.3’ high at 12:20pm, 1.3’ low at 6:43pm
SUNDAY 1st: Fading surf but still overhead (6-9’ faces early and easing) – Biggest early. Conditions look ok for at least the AM.
SWELL/SURF: Fading SW swell with well overhead sets still showing early morning, easing a couple notches into the afternoon, but still providing head-overhead sets.
WIND: Light offshore NW wind through the morning, becoming moderate onshore from the SSE in the afternoon.
TIDES: 1.3’ low at 7:17am, 4.6’ high at 1:29pm, 1.2’ low at 7:45pm