Large swells inbound for Australia and Indonesia

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)
Swellnet Analysis

It's been an active late autumn and early winter across much of Australia, with great waves on many coasts. 

On the other side of the planet, South Africa is being slammed by a severe storm that generated huge damaging swells and 100km/hr+ winds that are fanning wild fires around Knysna in the Western Cape Province (picture source: Twitter).

This storm is also set to deliver large swells to Skeleton Bay, with crews descending on the Namibian coast from all over the world as we speak.

More interesting to us in Australia and anyone travelling to Indonesia next week is that the storm currently impacting South Africa will track south-east, weakening temporarily before firing back up in a big way, west of Heard Island - longitudinally midway between Africa and Australia.

This re-intensification will be linked to the storm feeding off a pronounced node of the Long Wave Trough just south-east of Madagascar.

Model predictions have an expansive fetch of severe-gale W/SW winds projecting east along the polar shelf, with stronger storm-force (55-60kt) winds at its core.

This will set in motion a large long-period groundswell event for the southern Australian coast alone, but a secondary intensification of the storm once east of the Heard Island region will see an additional fetch of severe-gale W/SW winds projected towards Western Australia, working on top of the large active sea state.

A super-charged open ocean swell is expected to develop, resulting in XXL waves across the South West coast of Australia and XL surf for South Australia, west facing coasts in Victoria and Tasmania, plus a very large swell for the Indonesian archipelago.

We should see the swell arriving through Tuesday across WA, building rapidly into the afternoon ahead of a peak Wednesday. Indonesia will see the swell building rapidly Thursday ahead of a peak overnight/early Friday morning.

Size wise we're looking at 18-20ft+ surf across offshore reefs and bommies in Margaret River, smaller towards South Australia, while Indonesia should see surf peaking in the 10-12ft+ range.

Winds are still varying a little for Western Australia but S/SE breezes are more than likely, while SA will see more favourable N'ly breezes. Keep an eye on each regions forecaster notes over the coming days for more specifics regarding the timing, size and conditions for this swell.

Comments

Clam's picture
Clam's picture
Clam Thursday, 8 Jun 2017 at 4:09pm

Thats incredible!
Thanks craig , great scribe

Victoriasurfing1's picture
Victoriasurfing1's picture
Victoriasurfing1 Thursday, 8 Jun 2017 at 5:26pm

Do you have a updated forecast for Fiji Craig. What are your predictions for size and winds for the rest of the waiting period ?
Cheers

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 9 Jun 2017 at 7:17am

Looks like no decent swell until early next week. There is some good activity though for next week, with an initial swell Tuesday to 4-5ft+ with a secondary similar swell Thursday with favourable winds.

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo Thursday, 8 Jun 2017 at 7:56pm

Jim Banks reported on huge Ulu this week ...his 8'0 felt like a 6'2 and even guys on 9'0s were struggling to get into them - tmurphy_photography insta

Faark wait till this swell hits Jimmy !

Mort's picture
Mort's picture
Mort Thursday, 8 Jun 2017 at 11:11pm

Well, I 'be fucked, there is swell, bugger. I had to work out there was not vehicles, street signs, bloody hell.

Mort's picture
Mort's picture
Mort Thursday, 8 Jun 2017 at 11:13pm

But, I am parcial to a big swell.

Mort's picture
Mort's picture
Mort Thursday, 8 Jun 2017 at 11:44pm

Aw, Get Fucked.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 9 Jun 2017 at 7:39am

 

Today you were fun! @gopro #hero5 #gopro @guntherrohnsurfboards @ocean_earth @litragear

A post shared by Anthony Walsh (@anthony_walsh_) on

fitzroy-21's picture
fitzroy-21's picture
fitzroy-21 Friday, 9 Jun 2017 at 9:48am

That is insane.

lloydyp93's picture
lloydyp93's picture
lloydyp93 Friday, 9 Jun 2017 at 7:27pm

yeww pits till the AM

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone Friday, 9 Jun 2017 at 12:37pm

"Butt I think it was kind of a blessing in disguise, it's so easy to get caught up with capturing moments these days that you forget about enjoying what you're doing, and I ended up having more fun today as a result."

Spot On...

tonybarber's picture
tonybarber's picture
tonybarber Friday, 9 Jun 2017 at 3:08pm

Geez, can't we make engineer something like this. Just so mechanical.

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo Sunday, 11 Jun 2017 at 8:54am

Nice 3ft sets at Bingin via balibelly surf cam ...only 3 surfers in the water.

indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming Sunday, 11 Jun 2017 at 9:24am

3 surfers in the water?

Must have been a comp or something.

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo Sunday, 11 Jun 2017 at 9:29am

7am indo time...too early for the Euro muscle flexing tattoo brigade....
i saw a 5 wave set roll thru on the cam and nothing since.

indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming Sunday, 11 Jun 2017 at 6:41pm

Still sounds pretty freaky, last time i was at Bingin was about 15 years ago, i remember paddling out in the dark thinking id have it alone and there was already a guy out, i managed to get a wave and could barely see what i was doing i got pitched, i remember paddling back out and every few seconds it seemed to get lighter and i could see more guys paddling out half an hour latter there was about ten guys out.

prothero's picture
prothero's picture
prothero Monday, 12 Jun 2017 at 9:04pm

I got pitched at Bingin too Indo that was 30 years ago. I was with my mate Lemmes and there were 3 Americans out there an Older guy who was a wanker and his two sons. The older son wore sunnies as he surfed and got some nice tubes, the younger one was little and seemed to have fun. Turned out to be Herb Fletcher with Christian and Nathan.
......I got pitched and I hit the reef with my knee which resulted in my leg swelling up, over the next few days making it hard to walk. A few weeks later back in Perth the Doc said the knee was fine.....4 months later a bit of coral 'pussed ' out of the lump on the knee.

drchris's picture
drchris's picture
drchris Monday, 12 Jun 2017 at 7:59am

Hi Craig - whats your thoughts on this swell being big enough for the Bells 50 year storm invitational

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Monday, 12 Jun 2017 at 9:55am

Hi Chris.

This won't be large at all for Bells. It's too west and made too far away.