XL swell incoming for Pe'ahi

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)
Swellnet Analysis

It's still early season across Hawaii but they've already been hit with an XL swell earlier this week, and there's a second follow up system due to arrive through the end of the week.

You've heard about this swell, it's the one that's caused the WSL to green light the BWT Pe'ahi Challenge.

However, while the swell is large it isn't a standout swell and I'm tempted to say the WSL have jumped the gun a little. Reason being, this swell will be much smaller than last year's event and, as already mentioned, it's still only early season. Why not wait?

In saying all that, Friday morning is looking excellent.

Over the past couple days an elongated fetch of severe-gale (40-45kt) NW winds have been generated off the Aleutian Islands, projecting south-east towards Hawaii.

While the fetch was broad, elongated, and sustained, generating open ocean sea heights over 36ft, it's interesting to note that wind speeds never reached the storm-force (50kt) range. Often considered a benchmark for big waves.

We can expect the long-period fore-runners to arrive late Friday morning across Maui with the bulk of the swell not expected to arrive until the evening.

With this I don't expect the contest to kick off Thursday afternoon, as the WSL has said [Editor's Note: The WSL has just moved the start time back to Friday], but on Friday morning when the swell will peak with consistent 12-15ft surf and the odd 18ft bomb set, easing steadily through the day.

Light to moderate E/SE trades will keep conditions nicely groomed all day, which is especially good for the women’s event which is expected to be run immediately after the main men's event.

So all in all it'll be a fine morning of surfing in XL-size waves. Just don't expect to see any XXL behemoths such as that that were ridden last year.

Comments

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo Friday, 11 Nov 2016 at 7:37am

Dorian and Ian Walsh have some quiver pics up on there insta.

benski's picture
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benski Friday, 11 Nov 2016 at 8:36am

That's got to be such a great feeling. Like one of those fun pre-surf mission jobs, making sure the camping stove hasn't clogged a line, or checking the tent for any issues from last time that you ignored cos you got home too late.

Except it's getting the bloody guns ready to surf 30 foot jaws.

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo Friday, 11 Nov 2016 at 8:47am

Felicty Palmateer with her new JC 9'6.
"beauty and the Beast"

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 11 Nov 2016 at 8:41am

Ha, just checked her Insta, nothing there??

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo Friday, 11 Nov 2016 at 8:43am

John Carpers insta

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 11 Nov 2016 at 8:43am

Thanks, here it is..

 

Felicity Palmateer, just in from Western Australia, on her way to Jaws with her new 9'6 PBU.

A photo posted by John JC Carper (@jc_hawaii_surf) on

zenagain's picture
zenagain's picture
zenagain Friday, 11 Nov 2016 at 8:57am

Beauty and the beast?

She's not that bad.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 11 Nov 2016 at 9:04am

As expected, midday Hawaii time and no signs of the new swell from the buoy right off Maui.

Periods are around 14-15s with 10ft of swell.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 11 Nov 2016 at 9:08am

The 51101 buoy some distance north-west of the Hawaiin Islands is picking up 17s periods, not too impressive compared to the swell earlier this week.

goofyfoot's picture
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goofyfoot Friday, 11 Nov 2016 at 9:19am

Ian Walsh has little swallow tails on his guns.
No pins. Interesting

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet Friday, 11 Nov 2016 at 9:28am

Anyone got word on the WSL wildcards yet? Nothing on the WSL site.

Whoever signs up will be almost assured of missing Haleiwa.

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet Friday, 11 Nov 2016 at 10:16am

WSL just announced lineup and there are no CT surfers on the Peahi list (except for Kerr but he wasn't one of the WSL wildcards). In fact the draw has been reduced from 24 to 18 surfers. Here they are:

Heat 1: Greg Long (USA), Josh Kerr (AUS), Cristian Merello (CHL), Jamie Mitchell (AUS), Gabriel Villaran (PER), Tyler Larronde (HAW)
Heat 2: Billy Kemper (HAW), Carlos Burle (BRA), Grant Baker (ZAF), Kai Lenny (HAW), Ian Walsh (HAW), Dege O’Connell (HAW)
Heat 3: Makuakai Rothman (HAW), Albee Layer (HAW), Mark Healey (HAW), Aaron Gold (HAW), Will Skudin (USA), Yuri Soledade (HAW)
Heat 4: Nic Lamb (USA), Damien Hobgood (USA), Shane Dorian (HAW), Pedro Calado (BRA), Shaun Walsh (HAW), Francisco Porcella (HAW)

tonybarber's picture
tonybarber's picture
tonybarber Friday, 11 Nov 2016 at 10:38am

Great quiver of guns ... if only ...
Palmateer ... impressive

mikehunt207's picture
mikehunt207's picture
mikehunt207 Friday, 11 Nov 2016 at 10:40am

interesting to see Felicity Palmateer invited to Jaws contest, one tow session under her belt and ready for paddling Jaws? Any pics of her surfing big waves on that instagram link?

ojackojacko's picture
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ojackojacko Friday, 11 Nov 2016 at 12:30pm

likewise - any footage around of laura enever surfing big waves? props to all surfers and looking forward to watching. just had no idea LE was a big wave surfer

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Friday, 11 Nov 2016 at 12:01pm

Hot chicks who charge! Wooooooo

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Friday, 11 Nov 2016 at 12:50pm

Buoy data looking a little 'meh' right now.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 11 Nov 2016 at 12:55pm

Very 'meh'.

barley's picture
barley's picture
barley Friday, 11 Nov 2016 at 5:15pm

What time it starts lads..SA time or EST?

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Friday, 11 Nov 2016 at 5:20pm

Probably around 8am local which is about 5am Sydney time. 

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Friday, 11 Nov 2016 at 5:19pm

Latest data from the 51101 buoy shows a dropping (temporary, I assume) trend - 9.8ft @ 16 seconds (down a couple of feet from the last few hours, periods about the same). 

Looks like the Pauwela buoy (cloest to Maui) just picked up the leading edge at 18 seconds detected around 7pm local time. But, swell height is only 7.5ft so there's a long way to go (the "warm up" swell a few days ago was around 16ft at 18 secs, with the forerunners showing 22+ secs).

caml's picture
caml's picture
caml Friday, 11 Nov 2016 at 7:15pm

Thanks for the report guys , actually I saw flick out at huge margs 6 yrs ago

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Saturday, 12 Nov 2016 at 6:14am

Been watching for five minutes now.. I'm impressed at the size at Pe'ahi given the low buoy data - the Pauwela buoy (immediately offshore from Jaws) has been averaging around 9.5-10ft at 15 seconds over the last few hours. It's much smaller than the size/period from a few days ago.

Pe'ahi looks reasonably big - certainly a lot bigger than the buoy data would suggest - but it's a lot smaller than what we've become accustomed to during the usual freesurfing sessions. 

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Saturday, 12 Nov 2016 at 6:32am

First image sent through from the event so far - Greg Long in Heat 1.

How big? Looks 12-15ft-ish to me.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Saturday, 12 Nov 2016 at 6:46am

Might be a bit bigger now?
But yeah, pretty playful compared to what it can be.

Not that I would want one on the head.

barley's picture
barley's picture
barley Saturday, 12 Nov 2016 at 7:56am

Bit small in jaws terms

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Saturday, 12 Nov 2016 at 8:01am

Just tuned in, stand by my comment in the article.

Not sure why they jumped at this swell.

"However, while the swell is large it isn't a standout swell and I'm tempted to say the WSL have jumped the gun a little. Reason being, this swell will be much smaller than last year's event and, as already mentioned, it's still only early season. Why not wait?"

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Saturday, 12 Nov 2016 at 8:26am

Interestingly, the swell just a few days was even bigger. Why did they not aim for that swell instead?

caml's picture
caml's picture
caml Saturday, 12 Nov 2016 at 3:08pm

It was a" tow swell" nobody went out except tow , it was messy

goofyfoot's picture
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goofyfoot Saturday, 12 Nov 2016 at 8:33am

Laura enever had a huge go down! Decent effort to have a crack at it

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Saturday, 12 Nov 2016 at 8:40am

Yeah Laura got smoked!

Flics wave real nice, but Paige Alms entry and ride so easy and smooth.

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet Saturday, 12 Nov 2016 at 8:46am

Big ups to the sistas, but, Laura Enever's wipeout notwithstanding, there's not much happening for the viewer. 8 waves ridden in 40 minutes and only 2 of them succesful.

Victoriasurfing1's picture
Victoriasurfing1's picture
Victoriasurfing1 Saturday, 12 Nov 2016 at 8:51am

Not trying to disregard women as big wave surfers it is evident by all there surfing today that they can charge, but maybe why they chose this swell is becuase of the women's tour being added on the top of the men's. The Comp now goes for extra time so winds have to be good all day basically and I don't want to sound like a dick but the waves have to smaller. The waves last year at jaws they wouldn't have sent the women out there to surf so that's why they have chosen a smaller swell so early in the season

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Saturday, 12 Nov 2016 at 8:59am

All valid points VS, but I imagine that non-surfing armchair viewers might find this kinda stuff a little underwhelming. Which - as it's the whole focus of the WSL right now - seems to defeat the purpose.

Stu2d2's picture
Stu2d2's picture
Stu2d2 Saturday, 12 Nov 2016 at 9:03am

I had very little problem falling back too sleep on the couch

zenagain's picture
zenagain's picture
zenagain Saturday, 12 Nov 2016 at 10:57am

About a minute before Paige's wave i was going to predict they won't run the womens Pe'ahi challenge next year.

I'm almost prepared to stand by that.

Not that I'd be out there but looks to be some nice waves going unridden.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Saturday, 12 Nov 2016 at 11:03am

Yeah I'd have to almost agree. As you said not enough waves being ridden or completed.

ojackojacko's picture
ojackojacko's picture
ojackojacko Saturday, 12 Nov 2016 at 11:15am

yeah. complete respect to all competitors, but they would probably be better giving wildcards to the best women to compete in the men's events for a while. develop a separate women's comp over time rather than rushing in. laura enever certainly charged

JackGregory's picture
JackGregory's picture
JackGregory Saturday, 12 Nov 2016 at 11:22am

Paige just copped a nasty one

wesley's picture
wesley's picture
wesley Saturday, 12 Nov 2016 at 11:23am

Commentators doing it tough.

barley's picture
barley's picture
barley Saturday, 12 Nov 2016 at 12:30pm

Hows kemper..wowzas that guys an animal!!

caml's picture
caml's picture
caml Saturday, 12 Nov 2016 at 3:04pm

If you dont like big wave surfing why even watch it ? let alone comment on something you dont seem to understand .
some of those waves are much bigger than the armchair calls of 12-15ft its the same as usual on snet - but different ! . normally if its 25-30ft its called 15ft on sn , but today yous did better cos the margin of error is less than normal seeing its not 25ft & your calling it 12-15ft . JAws is a swell magnet that focusses swell incredibly thats why even a mediocre size deep water swell will focus a ten foot swell into 20fr wave . I didn't watch the event but saw a few bombs on insty . BIg wave surfers often focus on catching sets patiently so stop complaining that its boring . skating half pipes might be more exciting & you can measure the height of the ramp better too

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Saturday, 12 Nov 2016 at 7:41pm

I'm pretty stoked on my forecast of 12-15ft, with possibly some 18ft bombs.

That's 24-30ft faces with some 36ft face bombs.

Peak looked to be more through the day though instead of morning.

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Saturday, 12 Nov 2016 at 3:43pm

It looked like the wind was making it difficult for the girls to paddle into them then have the weight to keep the nose down. But they were having a solid go it was good to see

seal's picture
seal's picture
seal Saturday, 12 Nov 2016 at 3:55pm

I agree it wasn't the best watching but you have to give the girls credit for having a go.
I know for a fact only a few of them have ever surfed Jaws so to be put out there in strong off-shore, pretty big conditions would be very daunting to say the least so good on them and hopefully we might see a few step it up from now on.
Laura had a good crack at it and took some heavy floggings as did the winner Paige Alm that I'm sure many of us wouldn't want to suffer!

Wharfjunkie's picture
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Wharfjunkie Saturday, 12 Nov 2016 at 6:55pm

Didn't watch the comp saw the highlights wasn't the biggest Jaws but was pretty solid full respect to all men and women getting amongst it today.

barley's picture
barley's picture
barley Saturday, 12 Nov 2016 at 9:58pm

Oh man the final was epic greg, twiggy, kemper...seem to get better either the outgoing tide or new swell ir combo....just a side thought..the safety ripcord jacket ..woukd love an artic k e on the function and price