The East Coast swell update
If you're an East Coast surfer then I'm sure you already know, and if you're an East Coast surfer whose armed and ambitious then you're probably checking the days off in six hour increments, refreshing the wave models at the start of every run and drawing a big breath before taking the numbers in.
Yep, the synoptic setup forecast for the East Coast is a beauty alright, it's exceptional because of its intensity and also its historical infrequency. The last time the isobars lined up with a similar configuration - that is an anti-cyclone intensification from the north-east - was way back in 2007.
Since Sunday the models have been in broad agreement on the development of the system, a trough will move over inland NSW interacting with a strong high pressure system. This is the same high that will block swell during the Fiji Men's Pro (see our detailed forecast here), however the pressure gradient on the high's western flank will tighten and create a gale of north-east winds beginning near Fiji and blowing down the Tasman Sea extending to the Southern Ocean. The result will be a prolonged east-northeast swell for the entire East Coast.
The north-east gales will begin on Saturday and blow all Sunday kicking up a messy but impressive swell. That's all well and good, it'll make for spectacular viewing on mainstream news networks, however the real nub of the matter, the part that surfers want to know, is when the trough line will move over the coast. Because when it does the local winds will swing offshore.
The SE Qld and Northern NSW coast will see winds swing offshore earlier, as the trough line 'peels' away from the coast starting from the north Sunday and then from Sydney south into Monday.
The Gold Coast is expected to see fresh westerly winds develop just before dawn Sunday with rapidly improving conditions and solid sets to 8ft all day. It'll be slightly larger on the North Coast to 8-10ft+ and the winds will also swing offshore around dawn, if not shortly after, tending west-northwest through the day.
Further south along the Mid North Coast larger storm surf in excess of 12ft is due to develop through the day, but conditions will remain poor with gale-force onshore winds until the evening.
Sunday will also be a write-off further south around Sydney and the Illawarra with building storm swell to 10-12ft and onshore winds. All but the most protected north corners, bays, and estuaries will be a mess.
That'll change on Monday when the fresh westerly change, due early in the morning, cleans up conditions while a stronger east-northeast groundswell pulse fills in. Large, powerful, and dangerous waves around 10-12ft are due to develop across the coast (possibly even larger across the far south coast during the day). This will severely limit surfing options to selected spots for only the most experienced surfers.
This is where we put in a warning: Think long and hard before paddling out on Monday. Watch it for a while, make sure your equipment is intact, and your fitness is up to scratch.
The same warning goes for Tassie's East Coast which will feel the full impact of this swell. The fetch that begins up in the northern Tasman projects in a captured nature towards the Apple Isle, with monster 12-15ft surf likely to develop late on Monday at its peak.
Beyond sheer size, the other thing this system has going for it is duration. With severe-gales persisting through the Tasman Sea through early next week, large amounts of easterly groundswell will persist into Tuesday and Wednesday but at a more manageable 6ft+ across southern NSW. Further north, the swell will ease a touch earlier and be a touch smaller, dropping quickly from 5-6ft Monday morning across the Gold Coast and 6-8ft on the North Coast.
Offshore winds will persist most of the week across all regions, creating an incredible and rare run of large clean easterly groundswell.
It's important to note that this swell event is the result of two systems interacting. It's complex and dynamic, so expect the size and timing to shift about a bit over the coming days. Check the model updates as it hones in on the specifics.
Now breathe out and wait for this sucker to unfold.
Comments
My goodness, tried to keep froth levels in check but she's on. Good luck Stu. Avoid those rocks
"Dont peak too early."
"Don't peak too early."
I reckon this one will be for the crew who can pace themselves. Not sure if I've got that much willpower.
Wow, I can just imagine what some of the protected "novelty" spots will be like up and down the coast. Be good to see some footage of those that rarely break.
what event in 2007 was this analogous to?
26th June. Same setup though it was of a slightly lesser magnitude. An almost identical one - same setup, same magntitude - happened on 23rd April 1989.
Interesting that both those episodes corresponded with strong (1989) and moderately strong (2007) La Niña events.
wasn't much to that one around here. trough formed to the south of us, we got about 3-5ft of ENE swell with offshore winds. Just about everywhere was good to great in that size and with offshores.
the resulting Tasman low and cold fronts cleared the pattern away quickly as well.
This one looks very different to my eye.
Does anyone know why these systems are so rare? We get so many south groundswells on the east coast and at least an ECL a year and several cyclone swells. But why are these type of systems a once a decade affair?
they aren't.
NE infeeds into coastal troughs are quite common events.
This is only notable for the size of the infeed and the duration of the event.
Would have to agree, Mr Freeride.
All those spot x's will be shining.
Freeride is correct; it's the unusual strength of the over NZ that makes the difference. We very rarely get 1040hPa+ highs sitting over our fair isles (I'm a meteorologist, so follow this shit religiously).
Good question ragnar.
answered above.
And who likes a curveball.. latest 00z update has winds swinging offshore in Sydney during the day Sunday now.
It will continue to chop and change being such a dynamic setup.
Your turn chaps. Down here in Victoria I reckon we have almost non stop good surf for 5-6 weeks. There will be some great waves right down south of NSW. Good luck.
Hi Stu,
Will this swell direction work for the Red Bull Cape Solander event in Sydney. Could be interesting on Sunday/Monday with the offshore winds.
The first pulse will definitely be too north, however the followings days when it edges toward the east...? Oh jeez, could be perfect or it could be horribly squared up and near unmakeable (which could make for great viewing!)
I'd say Mark Mathews has a tough call to make.
Looks like he's gunna call it on!
So what's a good rule of thumb for refraction angles? I know deeper groundswells refract more, but how much can we expect 7m@13s to bend? Tassie has a very convoluted coastline, and I've never been here for anything like this so I'm trying to work out which direction to drive..
It's going to be very easy to blow down here in Tassie. Could light up some rarely surfed North coast waves which will be fun, good even, but not "Remember that swell in 2016" type spots. There's only one spot I can think of on the entire east coast that will be protected and hold a good size wave... My plan is to just head to the biggest spot there is on the biggest and windiest days to just take it all in, then start thinking about surfing once the wind is more favourable. Which part of the state are you in?
I'm in Hobart, but I'm no hellman so I'll be looking for something under 6ft. Altho, yeah, it would be cool to see the full fury at the peak of the swell. I've scoped the North Coast many times on Google Earth, but it's a long way to go on spec. I think I know which spot you mean, but I'm tempted to explore a bit just to see what works.
there should be a few owners of coastal property filling sand bags about now.
this swell will coincide with a BIG high tide about 8.30pm on sunday night.
Maybe head to Belongil for some cheap (for us) entertainment.
j2 - i would drive to the stretch between swansea and orford.
alternatively some of those fickle northcoast spots could be on.
Yeah, that's the stretch I was curious about. I've seen a NE swell bend a fair way into that bay, but with much reduced size. Given the size of this swell, that could be a good thing, but I'm still curious about how far it might bend. Less than 90 degrees, surely?
Well boyz I remember a week of Nor east swell in 2007 @ 6 to 8ft. A certain reef / point break set up pumped & has been very dormant for a couple of years now! Bring it on! looks like work will be taking a back seat with waves @ this rarely surfed spot!
Oh by the way , GR8 waves this arvo, after an early arvo off from work , scored 4 to 5ft sand bottom point waves with only about 6 other surfers out! Stayed out till 4ish when some one spotted something out the back that he called as a Mako! Lots of hysteria of late, as when I came in I saw several dolphins working some bait fish out the back where old mate spotted the so called shark! Still one guy out scorin a frw by hmself till about 4:30ish!
"and if you're an East Coast surfer whose armed and ambitious then you're probably checking the days off in six hour increments, refreshing the wave models at the start of every run and drawing a big breath before taking the numbers in"
Armed - tick, yes I have arms.
Ambitious - fark no, I know my limits, but should be some interesting sites to check.
Checking the days off in 6 hour increments - yep!
What would the best spots be for Sydney Northern beaches be for the NE direction for sunday/monday? I was thinking maybe collaroy, bower?? Thoughts?
I don't think many people will be giving out tips. You'll have to do the research yourself.
Sam, if you have to ask this question there is no way you should be going near the water during this swell, it will save someone the effort of having to rescue you..
I read this swell described as a bank-buster but I'm wondering if these types of swells have a destructive or constructive effect on sand banks. Banks are poor on my stretch of coast and I'm hoping this might improve things
what coast are you on?
Latest EC appears to be significantly downgrading this weather event....well at least in terms of rainfall for SE Qld?
Don it's changing all the time. Now peaking Sunday and offshore. Seems impossible to forecast.
Is there any chance of this swell getting into Vicco? There was an Easterly groundswell about 10 or 15 years ago that lit up a lot of spots in ways they don't normally break.
Indeed. Plus some even lesser-discussed coasts in another state too.
I'll never go there ....not that I can foresee anyway ....but maybe it's best to let those crew have their ( rare ) fun in piece.
Keep a lid on it mate, don't want all of Melbourne and all the fly in fly out surfers descending on Port Albert and Seaspray, they can't handle crowds and neither can I.
Depends which part of Vicco. Swellnet's automated forecast pages are your friend.
PS somebody remember to check Flinders Island is still there after this one
A site that I check (Passageweather.com) shows 5m westerly swells running into 5m easterly swells from this east coast weather setup going head to head in Bass Strait - could make for interesting times on the ferry...
Interesting to see that even 48 hours away, it's still difficult to accurately predict this. This tends to happen in most of these type ECLs.
Yep, I mentioned in the first article that things will continue to change right up to the event.
"These systems are complex and dynamic, so we expect that the forecast might shift around right up until the event itself this weekend."
Interesting discussion on ABC radio this morning with local BOM forecasters - possibly 250mm of rain on Saturday. They also mentioned the system is developing 'faster than expected', though they're obviously not speaking from a swell point of view.
All kinds of wild speculation as to surf size from another bloke though (US accent - Mike Perry perhaps? I didn't catch the intro), anywhere from 3m to 6m.
Gonna be an interesting day on the forecast bench regardless.
Ben, does your model take into effect the downgrading in size due to strong westerly winds?
Strong westerly winds don't decay swell, just pass straight through each other.
i notice in today's forecast, swell size is expected to be much smaller the day after the wind swings west (Sunday the change comes through SEQ/NNSW, so the monday swelll forecast). if not for the west in the wind, is this due to the trough now being positioned further offshore thus reducing the overall fetch of the ENE infeed?
Yeah that's correct, whole system is moving off a little quicker than ideal for size up your way.
cheers, so there is more travel time for the swell to decay once its behind the trough and no longer assisted by the NE fetch?
Ah nah, it's just that the fetch is moving out of the swell window causing a loss in size.
Swell decay not as big as a factor with a fetch that strong sitting in the central Tasman Sea through our swell window. It's just being angled away from the region and retreating east-southeast.
There'll continue to be good E'ly groundswell pulses through most of next week from this retreating fetch though.
awesome cheers, i'll be driving south and blowing in on Freeride's territory no doubt
I recon that could be Don Norris from Realsurf.com.au
Nah turns out it was Mike Perry.
The Gold Coast Bulletin is calling it the Swell of the Decade.
Yep... and the two swell gurus named Ben get a quote in as well.
Gonna be hard to get a park, although a little bit away from the beach might be a good idea with king tides, storm surge, and howling onshore seaspray
Not swell of the decade at all, out of context.
Gold coast swell of the decade. Surprises me, especially given the cyclone swells that hit over summer. Whatever hits there will be a blip on the radar compared to all points south of there.
Will be interesting to see what size you get, but I would think that so much of the energy will be passing by or being generated south of qld. Even freeride's neck of the woods won't be comparable to what hits further south in terms of size.
The hindcasting will be interesting.
Not swell of the decade at all, out of context.
Getting black in brissie. Raining is coming
Hypothetical. Starting from Saturday, you have the option of flying north and surfing between Straddie and Angourie, or staying South, and surfing between Sydney and Bateman's bay. What would you chose?
can I surf up north on sunday then fly down to sydney & head south for monday? if so, thats my answer :)
Given the choice - I would prefer to be south of Sydney for this one
A lot more options on the south coast
Nah sorry mate it's one or the other till Wednesday....
Damn, I reckon up north then for qty of good days even though it would be smaller overall. conditions are prime everywhere
Fuck, just go to Indo.
It's like this every other week....only cleaner, with better reefs.
Unless you WANT to surf 7 metre waves.
Bureau are excited. Monday on the Illawara coast:
"Swell Northeasterly 7 metres, tending easterly 5 to 7 metres during the morning."
7 metres!
Seems a reasonable call to me Stu. You may be able to write up about some offshore reefs that hadn't been seen breaking since Adam was a boy.
If there were any down your way. Enjoy the show, hope you get some, but get home alive now, you've got some young mouths to feed.