Incoming: First Tropical Cyclone for the '15 - '16 South Pacific season
The first Tropical Cyclone of the 2015-2016 season is about to form near Fiji.
Tropical Depression TD02F was located about 670km north of Fiji this morning, and is almost stationary. It’s expected to intensify and track south-west over the coming days, likely reaching a low Category 1 status well east of Vanuatu sometime on Saturday.
When this occurs, the cyclone will be named ‘Tuni’ by RSMC Nadi.
The South Pacific cyclone season officially starts on 1st November, however due to the effects of the existing strong El Niño, it is common for tropical cyclones to begin developing earlier than normal.
This may seem at odds with recent climate forecasts issued by the Bureau of Meteorology for a reduced number of Tropical Cyclones this season. However, it is worth pointing out that Fiji lies within the eastern South Pacific region - a seperate forecast zone - whilst the BOM's forecast region is the western South Pacific region; essentially west of about New Caledonia.
At this stage, TC Tuni is not expected to become a major swell producer for Queensland or New South Wales coastlines, however in conjunction with a broad Tasman high pressure system, it has been (and will continue to) enhance trade winds to the south of Fiji, generating a fun trade swell that’s forecast to peak around Tuesday of next week. Check out the latest forecast notes for more details.
Comments
Bring on cyclone season love the big calls and every ones 2 cents worth.
BOM should include the probability of some island between Fiji and the Cook Islands copping a direct hit from a high category cyclone this season . Personally I'd place a high percentage chance on this occuring .
Hey there Southey/ Ben.
Is this a common weather system occurring during an El-Nino, this early in the cyclone season?
Yes the Western Pacific warm pool is displaced into the central pacific during exceptionally Strong El Niño 's . This is also prevalent during Modiki years . During a year like this year , the first ( early season cyclones tend to form in this region quite early as opposed to rare events in normal years and generally late . Usually the Sthn Indian will seed one first !
Agree Southey. Also the difference between basin forecasts blurs the lines for surf potential, due to the size of each basin.
Also seems there's differing views as to the seasonal outlook for the eastern South Pacific region - BOM have an average season (48%), and note that "model accuracy is very low". However FMS state that that the "frequency and strength seem to increase during the El Nino period".
Here's the cyclone track issued by RMS Nadi yesterday.
Hmmmm... looks like this system may just slip under the threshold for a Tropical Cyclone (as per the Australian scale).
Interestingly, JTWC have been referencing this as a Tropical Cyclone since Friday - however they use the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale, which uses 1-minute maximum sustained wind speed (BOM/RSMC use 10-minute maximum sustained wind speeds, which is a slightly higher threshold).
RSMC issued a press release yesterday saying TD02F has "has a moderate probability to develop into a tropical Cyclone in next 12 to 18 hours", but this is down on Friday's "high probability".
Any 4ft sets from the east possible for tues/wed for the NSW Central Coast from this trade swell?
Can someone tell me, or direct me to a recent article, that explains what an El Nino year really means for surf - especially in NZ /Hawaii and for Europe!?
Interesting read for the upcoming cyclone season in the SPCZ.
http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/Tropical_Cyclone_Guidance_2015_16.pdf
Impressive prediction of 10-14 cyclones for this upcoming season...which compared with 1997 (other big El Nino year) which had 16 TC's in the region, it's certainly looking likely we could see some consistent TC formations out in the SPCZ.
Of course a lot of other factors before we can say what (if any) swell we'll get from these TCs. With the forecast for New Cal area to be normal, it's fair to say that any cyclone swell from the forecast 10-14 TCs in the SPCZ would be long range groundswells.
Cheers Don.
"it's fair to say that any cyclone swell from the forecast 10-14 TCs in the SPCZ would be long range groundswells"