We won't see any local influences on our weather until a proper reversal of the walker circulation is set up . But this WWB does spell that it is almost certainly to follow within the next few weeks . Already in the Nth Eastern Equatorial Pacific there is signs of a strengthening Trough/ low expanding and deepening at the end of model runs . Resulting broad scale blocking highs should then start to proliferate over continental Aust . Barley & BS , we may see one more stalled area of low pressure in the next week or so , but most likely it will be the last for a few months . I believe the bounce back or rebound towards wetter conditions may start as early as Nov/ Dec . So i wouldn't be slitting your wrists on the Qld coast from lack of forecast activity come Summer .
Forget the Coral / Tasman Sea influence in all this , the Cyclone is actually feeding / was seeded off the Nino 4 region which in a Strong El Nino will actually still run in positive SST anomalies .

So Southey, based on your prediction of broad scale blocking highs, can we expect an early arrival of spring with increased northerlies and lack of any tradewind swell to SE Qld?

Southey...can I ask where do you get the WWB info. Looking at Bom I see rather a strong easterly flow. I assume the charts are to early to predict into November ?.

tb , not exactly sure where and what your talking about . As per Craig's photo above , the largest >80% of ENSO drivers are located in the Pacific's Equatorial waters between 15N and 15S . During a fully developed El Nino the trade winds in this sector will most of the time just die down or be well under average . The influence is even less further from the Equator , and sometimes mid latitudal differentials will have their own circulation . If they are strong then they reinforce the Equatorial SST's effect on atmospheric circulations . Anyway strong passes of the MJO anywhere from late summer through to early Spring will help build a more El Niño state or at very least more positive SST's anomalies in Central and Eastern Equatorial Pacific .
If you see 2or 3 strong passes within 3-5 mths time then you are almost certain to see ENSO if neutral or the warm side of it then you are almost certain to see some sort of El Nino atleast in the weak to moderate . If however you see one or more so two " dual mirrored " systems straddling the equator opposite each other then this really ramps up a WWB and increases chances of a strong kelvin wave .
The kelvin wave is when the usually higher sea levels in the Western Pacific washes back to the east as the easterly trades ease or more violently reverse and blow west like these WWB's . That momentum causes a shift or block of warming water that usually flows to the west , the resulting leading edge of these kelvin waves gets down welled and you see the Equatorial counter current , ( a layer of water from 50-300m deep that acts as an undertow and is the resultant of the usual East -West Equatorial surface current . The kelvin wave works as a bypass or short cycle and it delivers warmer surface water back to the Far East Pacific and towards the end of a second or even a third WWB and resultant kelvin waves sees a large build up of warmer water which then backs up and expands back into the central East and Central Pacific . Once this is finally in place usually by late winter early spring then this reverse walker circulation , helps maintain this wide spread weakening of the trades . Far less moisture will be available in the western pacific to feed into mid latitude troughs , and often early mid pacific cyclones will form . Think Aitutaki and the Cook Islands copping recurving Cyclones rather than them building and recurving through the coral sea or even making it west of Fiji /solomans .
Don I would strongly suggest that all frontal systems should be weakened as of late July . BUT troughing and moisture can still irregularly be fed in from the mid Indian which is still reasonably warm in the eastern half . This will weaken as more strong highs park further into winter . As cooler desert airs tend to blow offshore for longer over WA's North . There is still a chance that the end of this period may come in late spring , but as the central pacific sees more troughing then you won't see as much trade swell off the top of highs extending out way East of the continent . Instead you may see more infrequent long distance cyclone swells , but most likely they will transition faster as the waters will be less " soupy " out that far from the coral sea .
Not sure I answered your questions , but it is lengthy topic . It took me a long time to fully get my head around the process , and even then I and even the professionals have a long way to go . External influences such as Southern ocean patterns , Atlantic influence , Nth Pacific and something we are getting more a handle on is the Indians coupling and sometimes triggering .

Gday southee..have you even been watching the patterns? The highs have been taking over the whole of Aus for at least a month now.
Yes some of sa has had rain but very very patchy.reminiscint of 05/06 ...excellent for surfing sa..big swells slipping underneath with fuck all wind.
You were asking about the rains?...well very patchy at best.
and now bom have said no rain for 2 weeks at least..IMO nino or dry period whatever..long term?
It always turns

Is this available as a pictorial? My brain is hurting.

Yeah barley I'm well aware of the highs and receding fronts , it's been pumping here too .
It's just troughs and unsettled weather are pretty much non existent once the atmosphere fully couples with the SST's (nino ) . Australia often shows symptoms well before the Nino sets up ( hence dry last 18 mths ) but then also is one of the first spots to " break " from Nino thresholds to see returned moisture bearing systems .
mos ,
Sorry my comments are more for guys who get the gist of ENSO overall and want insight into its intricacy's .
BOM have good basic info on their website , in the climate section .
Most of my info comes from BOM data obs' , my own ob's of synoptic patterns , NOAA ,
Jamstec , ECMWF , NRML .etc .
The Weatherzone forum has a thread where guys often postulate and upload images, but warnings should apply as they get pretty Indepth like myself. At least if you want you can read BOM tutorial and then have a rough understanding , unfortunately even the images and charts can be hard to follow .

so far reasonable rainfall in NENSW and this area is very sensitive to ENSO influences.
I expect the switch to flick big time as Southey said ala 09

Did some digging mos ,
This image shows a few kelvin waves that setup the 1998 super El nino .
https://m.

Hey Craig,

Whats the relationship between El Nino / La Nina and Vic winter waves / Indo peak season
2015: Vic is having an incredible run of swell and nw winds this winter.....yet indo seems like it is good...but not epic
2014: Indo was epic all season, yet Vic had a pretty average winter

Is there something in this, that will help me plan my next Indo trip!
Is there a el Nino impact on the Maldives too?

cheers

G'Day one and all.
No doubt the "for" El Nino argument is being put forward by some very studied men who no doubt have a "calling" for climatology.
This is great. We are spending less wasted time doing what ever we want to do because of predictions from this area of science.
BUT....there are a number of known issues that are not being put forward in these blogs the last 3 months concerning ENSO that need to be "aired" again.

1.The chances of a correct forecast of ENSO at this time is only 30%(from the BOM)
2.Outright there is only a six and one half out of 10 chance that the prediction will be accurate.(Prediction averages so far)
3. All data concerning water temps in the Eastern Area(Pacific) are being hotly disputed by Georgia Tech and leading British Climatologists because of the way they are being taken.
4. Leading indicators wind and cloud for predictions are NOT supporting the prediction of an EL Nino event.
5. Water temps in the Western Pacific are very warm and supporting weather events linked to this warm water.
Could I respectfully suggest that "jets be cooled" right now. Possibly until mid August before the prediction of an El Nino event is "professed".
This would be the educated thing to do right now....eh?

The BOM's own info gave the 30% reliability quote for early predictions of ENSO such as this one being touted.
Not me.
What is being pieced together globally about climatology given the massive fail of last year is available freely in the Public Domain.

This is confusing for real tho

bs , 

You are barking at shadows . 

Kelvin waves are measured with satellite altimetry , measuring sea surface height anomalies . 

Bondi Steve ,
Calm down I'm on your side , as in I think many of these climate institutions are on the nose . It doesn't stop me from using their vast resources though .
But one thing is for certain , stop taking a good honest study and try it to fit it to your agenda . I for one are skeptical , and have studied ENSO , NOAA isn't my god , Bob Tisdale is the closest thing in this topic . I read Joe Bastardi among others .
So for the love of the oceans will you stop derailing the fucking topic !!!!!

Your only making sense to yourself now . Before that post I was the only one who understood your ramblings .
Perhaps u may want to read back through the various threads in here that mention climate change , and see my views on that subject . Otherwise you may want to stick to this one .
I believe that the ENSO studies need bulk funding , but I also believed this well before people trying to steer public policy tried to use it to bolster their cause and with it siphon funding away from the initial aims . ( ie to fully understand the natural climate forcings ) . It was seen as a key point by some to quietly hijack their strongest factual opposition from the same side of the fence , By taking on their champion evidence and twist it into their own evidence . Upon which about this time that " the words super niño's " started airing in the media . Apparently from that day forth La Niña didn't exist , well I've got news for them next year is going to make them move onto to their next climate forecasting failure .
BTW , When you've alienated the only person in a room who is just remotely giving minute credence to some of the postulations you've made . Then my friend you are alone ..........

"A TROPICAL cyclone that has formed north of the Solomon Islands is the first that Queensland forecasters have ever recorded in July." - It may be the first that the Queensland forecasters have ever recorded, but it certainly is NOT the first ever July cyclone in the Queensland region. Well documented cyclones in the Queensland region occurred in July 1962, July 1954, July 1935, July 1933 and many before that. Time for the BOM and media to get their facts straight. No wonder print media readership is in decline. How about asking some pertinent questions of the BOM as well who promote this as a first ever event?
Maybe this question should also be answered.
This is starting to look like a laugher!

hey bsteve,
i really like some of your posts, as i like some of southey's posts too. Both of you are really interesting and informative. Weather observation and prediction is always going to be less than accurate all the times because it deals with a totally dynamic system.
It is never going to be accurate all the time, just as identical twins are not 100% identical because they are unique, hence more probable than possible in at least one aspect to be different or divergent.
U may not agree with southey, and who is right and who is wrong, unless you create the climate and weather, is not going to be decided by you.
So do us all a favour, including yourself, and keep on giving us your perspective on things, it's good stuff, but please stop resorting to stuff that just denigrates all of us who love this site and it's great content- until i post that is-humour-lets use it here hey!