Will last year’s predicted El Niño happen this year?
The threat of an El Niño has not gone away for Australia. Image: thinboyfatter/Flickr
This time last year we were preparing for a possible El Niño with potentially dire consequences from drought, extreme heat and bushfire in Australia. Until August we were still entertaining the possibility of a “super” El Niño.
But then it all just fizzled out. So what happened? Are scientists just crying wolf with the latest forecasts of an El Niño this year?
Currently, the Bureau of Meteorology has given El Niño a 70% chance of occurring this year. The next update is expected on Tuesday. A 70% chance of El Niño means that seven times out of ten, conditions like the ones we currently have would develop into an El Niño, but three times out of ten they wouldn’t.
Forecasting El Niño is not about a definitive yes or no prediction; it is about presenting probabilities. It isn’t possible to cry wolf when making a probabilistic forecast.
This time last year there was also a 70% chance of El Niño occurring. So in telling us that there is once again a 70% chance this year, the forecasters are alerting us to the fact that the Pacific Ocean is primed for an El Niño. It would be wise to be prepared, given the known risk of bushfires, heatwaves and drought during El Niño events.
The answer is in the ocean
The potential for an El Niño event is determined by temperatures below the surface of the tropical Pacific Ocean. Without continued ocean observation systems in place we would not be able to predict El Niños (and the opposite condition, La Niña) this far in advance. If an El Niño is going to happen, it begins with a build-up of warm water in the equatorial Pacific from the surface to a depth of around 200 m. This is occurring now, as it also did this time last year.
Ocean temperature difference from normal along the equator in the Pacific for April this year and April last year. Red indicates warmer temperatures. PEODAS
Warm water build-up is a necessary but not sufficient condition for an El Niño to occur. That is to say, the build-up signals the potential for an El Niño, but it doesn’t mean one will necessarily happen. In many years, such as 2014, the warm water built up but an El Niño didn’t eventuate. However, when there is not a warm water build-up then we can be quite confident that an El Niño is not going to develop.
Warm water build-up (blue) compared to Nino3.4 (a measure of El Niño and La Niña). Peaks in the blue line lead the red line. The warm water can stay built up for a couple of years until an El Niño occurs.
Past records show that the warm water tends to linger until an El Niño does occur. The fact that we didn’t get an El Niño in 2014 when one was predicted is not unusual. If we don’t get an El Niño this year, it is likely the ocean will stay primed and increase the chances of an El Niño in 2016.
What triggers an El Niño event?
When the ocean is primed with warm subsurface water, there often needs to be a trigger from the atmosphere for an El Niño to begin. This trigger is usually in the form of a westerly wind burst that causes the warm subsurface water to rise to the surface.
These wind bursts are not always predictable and we can’t know if one will kick-start the system this year.
A new type of El Niño
Over the past decade, a new type of El Niño has emerged, known as central Pacific El Niño or El Niño Modoki (Modoki is Japanese for “same but different”). This sort-of El Niño develops more quickly after the warm water has built up, giving much less notice that an El Niño is imminent. It is possible that this new El Niño type is due to global warming, but it could also be just part of the larger natural variability of the climate system.
Our subsurface ocean observation systems only provide us with detailed records of the tropical Pacific since the early 1980s. There is still a lot for us to learn about all the ways that El Niño can form. Global warming is further changing our understanding because everything is now happening with already warmer water.
Jaci Brown is a Senior Research Scientist at CSIRO. This article first appeared in The Conversation.
Comments
Thanks for that Jaci, really interesting.
Stu can we have more of this type of stuff please? Cheers.
On the subsurface data alone , i would put a Proper El Nino @ 90 % .
There are some variances , in that the Warm Surface water is also propagating West alsp ATM . Which either indicates that current WWB is not going to be the last or The El Nino will again Peak early than a typical DEC. time frame .
Another noteworthy observation is that Even deeper it appears we have a mirroring /parallel cool water kelvin wave .... ? !
At the moment i'm trying to find time to assess some new info / modelling that a Private researcher is working on . And from their early indications is surprisingly accurate on Hindcast . This work centralises on Solar and Gravitational influences of which I'm not surprised given my initial past learning on this subject matter .
And now it may be time that the MJO / Indian Ocean Coupling is closer to easily understood from a lot more varied research .
how does effect the surf?
Depends where you talking about .
East Coast and vicco, Southey?
East Coast flat best you save up for a ticket and park yourself on the north shore of Hawaii lost doggy
Thought so.
I still remember all the talk about El Niño when Taylor Knox won 50g for that wave at Todos Santos off baja.
So west coasts are good?
Believe it when it happens,wasn't that long ago it wasn't going to rain again according to Tim Flannery,so sydney built a desalination plant,how many years ago was that ,never been used,cost a shit load to build ,anyway it rained pretty much non stop for 2 years and even last year it was going to be an el nino year hahah,keep saying it and you'll get it right sooner or later.Anyway to me the best years are the drought years smaller swells but more stable sand banks and cleaner conditions.
I am a climate change supporter.
But how is it that the predicted "epic" El Nino event for the summer just past turned into one of the worst higher latitudinal monsoons ever recorded. Rainfall records the highest ever in some suburbs and towns of NSW. For the five months it was here insurance payouts are very high.
Now we see that the criteria for the Southern Oscillation Index from the BOM has been lowered to sustained values above seven. Didn't that used to be ten and then eight?
Sadly I feel vested interests do not want to recognise the dramatic fall in CO2 emissions and it's effect on the world climate since China and Europe crashed.
Maybe there's no money in the facts here.
I don't know where you are getting your data Steve but it is wrong. CO2 emissions continue to rise year on year.
http://co2now.org/Current-CO2/CO2-Now/global-carbon-emissions.html
Yeah 400 ppm the other day !
But I think Steve was pointing at the downturn from less power consumption .
So I would definitely say that the expected ( pre 2008 ) exponential (co2) growth has been a little less than expected .
Which percentage is from intentional mitigation , either substitution or minimisation of energy use
or from economic downturn / growth reduction in world wide is anyone's guess .
Back on topic
C85, LD. , MF ,
I wouldn't necessarily /automatically go with Hawaii Nth Pac better , I still personally think that
correlation was mainly based in the 80's & 90's . One thing stands out is , regardless of the PDO and West Nth American coastal water temps California refuses to break from drought .
I don't think East Coast will fair as bad as some 90's ElNino's , and there's one other GOOD thing which I'll keep for myself , where three neighbouring regions do well in a 8 - 10 mth stretch . And if you were, going to take a year off work this would be it . PS we are a month or two in . Actually at different times for one or two months in each region Australia wide is looking at a very favourable 15 mths of waves ! AGW doesn't even enter my thought process on any of that .
I'm on a thrashing to nothing here in the opinion of many people. And I can understand that.
The supply and demand issues around oil and coal are well documented in the financial pages. Oil consumption is currently down around 50% on last year and coal production has been down now for about more than a year. Power generation is Australia has been falling for 3 years and I believe the same is true for the other developed countries due to their economies and technology. Surely this has an effect on CO2 production.
The kind of money involved in this doesn't lie either. Investors have been fleeing oil and coal now for around 2 years. If there were an increase in CO2 then it woud show in the employment and investment figures for each of the industries. Both are rapidly declining.
Good article... Much debate bout better sand /smaller swells simba. After that last big east coast low the banks improved heaps on the cenny Coast stretch after having the sand stripped back
My personal observation bout El nino waves is heaps of dead South swells for the East Coast and less North East swells. Probably cause the trades aren't as strong and less tropical lows/ cyclones, but I'm no expert
Good for the sand and the micro groms but bad overall. Lots of small inconsistent south swells and extended flat spells.
What was last year late winter early spring like BB .
It's kind of hard to measure how bad something is when traditionally that's the worst part of the year anyway ! Traditionally that period is when an El Niño has the most impact on Australasian weather patterns .
Been getting a couple a lately Southwy?
Southey, I wasn't here a lot last winter spring but most people said it was very very ordinary. We haven't had a ripper winter since the Pasha Bulker and Anzac Day 2009. I'm interested in those other 3 areas and also how the snow in Japan goes if that's close to the area in question.
Another reason why blindboy and his "climate scientists are full of shit..how long does it take for dodo's to work out you can't predict fuck all..not even3 months ahead let alone 20yrs..why are all gov's in trouble..because they all talk 'long term predictions'..science is all based on history..not future therefore 80% of science is crap..anyone care to debate?
For every climate change enthusiast stastic, there is a climate change sceptic statistic..in other words for every 'fact' for pro climate change their is an equal fact to dispute it. Information can be manipulated to suit the other's argument.
@craig how can you sprout climate change is evil yet you are the most traveled by the most fossil fuel using apparatus nearly known to man..what's that ? another indo mission? Everyone asks about Rupert and his media/oil conspiracy ..has anyone ever asked whose pushing the 'new' climate change/renewable energy conspiracy? which major conglomerate/multinational company is building all these solar plants/windfarms? governments? Clearly this new resource is going ahead leaps and bounds and will be totally beneficial for the everyday shitkicker..make you wonder why all the manufacturers didn't see this coming? surely the labor party (which are traditionally mining etc..) saw the downturn 15-20yrs ago but what did K.Rudd J.Gillard do?
Barley.
The even more scarey thing is that business and governments created the massive CO2 problem in China,Europe,America and the rest of the world allowing a massive debt trap(GFC) which was also exported worldwide(to investors) and allow climate change to dominate the political aganda knowing that one day the CO2 thing would end through mass bankruptcy.
Nice if you were on it(financial markets)?
Don't ever let somebody tell you they couldn't do it again....because they can.
Abbott?
What year was it when the Burleigh hill was brown cause of El nino/drought but the waves pumped? Early mid 2000's? There's an argument that El nino caused good waves
Yeah its not out of the question . But I think most people tend remember consistency or lack there of .
Also some of the best late season Nthn Aust waters , are best as the ElNino breaks dos and the climate goes into a fast spiral rebound back to a Decent La Niña .
MVG ,
Yeah Franga's been pumping ....
But too busy to travel .
Might get me some surf coast next week when all the froth settles down , and the regulars get a little tired ;-) !
Well I thought I knew where you lived but anyway. I skated that park a couple times and the locals were pretty sick actually, compared to the reputation.
Another thing I read but is that the intensity of cyclones is higher on average, during el nino. So, could be more memorable for some
Franga was a reference to an ongoing joke in the Forecast notes comments last week . Nothing more .
This is the internet Mitch , I'm everywhere ......
I think you're on the money Southey
who needs science when you can just make things sound cool by naming them with a combination of 2 different languages. El nino midoko mofo!
Bring on more language combinations when naming weather events.
La Nada is my favourite .....
all comments valid but until you take in resonance of human beings electromagnetic frequency peaks added to electromagnetic sphere surrounding planet, all your SCIENCE is really Bollywood/Kindergarten stuff, but very inventive and amusing nonetheless. This comment is not aimed at negating any views but promoting the invitation that we may actually understand less than what we need to, and all decisions are made best with the most available information.
I didn't want to post this as it might melt some minds .....
But clearly its open slather in here , and some enjoy such things .
I don't endorse this forecast , but I have studied some of the methods and they do have credence . Most importantly since it was posted till now and quite clearly beyond to my money is exactly what is facing us ... Beyond 2016 I personally diverge on his findings , but I do again note that there shall be some forcing associated with it .
" http://www.thelongview.com.au/documents/RAPID-GLOBAL-COOLING-FORECAST-IN... "
Please note that this guy did at some stage sit in the " Flannery camp " , of drought is going to turn inland Australia into a wasteland in a Forecast and paper he published on his nearby inland Lake Eppalock and its catchment in 2008 ... 3 years later it went from 3 % to 150% in 6 mths ....
Since then I believe he has taken in way more " influences " which to date in my mind has the recent runs on the board , ( when it seems that most " professionals in this field have had their head up their Arse ... )
There I said it ...
This forecast will either be extremely accurate or dismal , but it will be clear if this theory is correct in the next few years ....
I watch this closely as I have been reading and taking heed of many of its influences of late which I believe may have significant impact on seasonal forecasts .
Thanks for the "Longview" article Southey. A rapid decrease in CO2 production since 2009 could give similar results.....?
Sounds a lot like the Solar Maunder Minimum to.
Ta.
Thicker wetsuits, and snowboards. Got it.
Well a completely different slant on climate change,time will tell eh ,good read and very interesting in the moons place in all of this ...
we have a classic example of how humans peak electromagnetic energy can influence the earths electro magnetic field and weather now, this big cold front went further north and slowed bringing more snow to the ski fields/and better snow making conditions for next few days- these events can be influenced by humans but are unpredictable as such because of humans changing emotions- remember emotional responses trigger thoughts which results in electrical transmission exchanges of data in human brains and bodies which then interact with larger electro field- earths field- which then interacts with universal field, including sun/milky way galaxy, which then interacts with life field- that my dear friends is exactly how it goes, it's called Cosmology, and is all inclusive.
Well then maybe we could all focus on "emotional response triggers with thoughts which results in electrical transmission exchanges of data in human brains and bodies which then interact with larger electro field- earths field- which then interacts with universal field"
If we focused on creating another Mount Tambora eruption back in 1815, which wiped out 250,000 people world wide and dropped global temps by 0.7 degrees.
Lowered ocean temps in the Eastern Pacific, Cholera epidemic break outs and flooding in South West Asia, Typhoid epidemic in Ireland, heatwave in Artic regions etc.
El-Nino, La-Nada and Midoko Mofo would all be blown (excuse the pun) out the door.
There is a 10% risk of experiencing such an eruption in our lifetime.
Good day;)
good stuff, i was just pointing out that this prediction science is limited because it doesnt take in all available information and we know less than what we think we do.
u r correct, the earth will and can cause a big event if it thinks it needs to balance itself and humanities continual focus on economic ways that create pollution and our constant squabbles even in relationships with family members always registers as "pollution".
Lots of people dont want to believe this stuff because they dont want to take responsibility for their E-Motions, energy in motion which weather patterns are- arent they!!!!!!
I am not concerned as I know I can adapt and if I die I die, but I can only go on my experience and that is yesterday I lived with light sw winds, bodysurfed perfect little rainbow bay peelers, sat and talked to a beautiful lady for 3 hours on a lovely headland and then had beers with two beautiful ladies at coolie surfclub, so fuck, I must be going okay and I must be doing/knowing something that works- yeah loving life, what about u?
STOP PRESS!
This just in from the financial pages today.
The IPCC's 2007 AR4 - the settled science - today's Antarctica should have half the amount of ice that it had in 2007.
oops got that wrong.... Goes to show the inaccuracy of predicting climate change.
Seasonal growth in Antarctic sea ice is now under way and is expected to peak at another record level in September. Scientists say the increases in sea ice mask much larger regional changes in sea ice distribution, as well as changes in the physical properties of the ice itself. Professor Tony Worby, chief executive of the Climate and Ecosystems Co-operative Research Centre, said expanding Antarctic sea ice had not been expected initially with climate change, but was now better understood.
While the overall Antarctic ice mass was reducing, sea ice was expanding due largely to changed wind patterns driven by ozone depletion, greenhouse gas accumulation in the atmosphere and natural variability. Recent research had also shown the ice is thicker than previously thought.
Enjoy!
Latest statement from the BOM declaring El Nino..
"The tropical Pacific is in the early stages of El Niño. Based upon model outlooks and current observations, the Bureau's ENSO Tracker has been raised to El Niño status.
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indicators have shown a steady trend towards El Niño levels since the start of the year. Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean have exceeded El Niño thresholds for the past month, supported by warmer-than-average waters below the surface. Trade winds have remained consistently weaker than average since the start of the year, cloudiness at the Date Line has increased and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has remained negative for several months. These indicators suggest the tropical Pacific Ocean and atmosphere have started to couple and reinforce each other, indicating El Niño is likely to persist in the coming months.
International climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures are likely to remain above El Niño thresholds through the coming southern winter and at least into spring.
El Niño is often associated with below-average winter and spring rainfall over eastern Australia, and above-average daytime temperatures over the southern half of the country. However, the current May to July outlook suggests much of Australia is likely to be wetter than average. This is because a warmer-than-average Indian Ocean is dominating this outlook. El Niño is expected to become the dominant influence on Australian climate during the second half of the year."
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
Oh Shit! Out with the dencorub!
There's a European guy thats just started posting on another weather site that reckons he's cracked the ENSO code of Forecasting . I've seen his hindcasting which looks reasonably impressive , and the forecast is long so hard to track in short time scales .
But he's just posted his Monthly forecasts for this years MEI .
" This is the forecast for MEI this year for each month.
At the last column is the real value for the first two months
2015.1 0.61770 0.406
2015.2 0.48016 0.468
2015.3 0.64431
2015.4 0.80840
2015.5 1.03902
2015.6 1.47970
2015.7 1.47523
2015.8 1.34330
2015.9 1.27075
2015.10 0.99786
2015.11 1.00762
2015.12 0.66435
2016.1 0.28218 "
The first column is Year . Month .
the second is his forecast .
the third actual figures .
The MEI ( Multi variate ENSO Index ) corresponds to the Level of ENSO influence with Positive values above 0.8 for more than 3 mths considered El Nino and Negative below 0.8 La Nina .
Statistically speaking most El Nino's peak in DEC . His forecast has it peaking early in Aug. and then back below current levels before DEC . Which is similar
to last years actuality but this time its going actually be a short sharp El Nino . He then advocates that we will see a long prelonged La Nina to follow and even establish by March next year .
Similar short sharp El Nino's ( time wise ) would be going back to 1983 , but that did infact peak closer to DEC .
Nice. just heard on ch10 that this will be the most severe el nino in a decade..but they predicted we will be in el nino from August last year. and now they are saying we are in an el nino yet we expect above ave. rainfall up until july /Aug..except that we haven't even had ave. rainfall up until this point in time. The last severe el nino was 2005/06 which is commonly known as a drought. and la nina is a flood. Then they said(ch 10) that we have had several el ninos since 1906. these predictions are the equivalent to the Bureau saying "60% chance of a possible shower today"..what a good way to predict an el nino..then the next day go we are already having an el nino. This is the problem when you have highly intellectual but socially inept people sitting around a screen and hypothesizing about situations getting bored then coming up with names for things that occur more often than first thought. and have been happening for thousands of years.
Anyone ever see the Simpsons episode when the nerds/geeks have to help Bart and they step outside their computer room and Snake goes 'wallet inspector"
Barley.
I could hear someone in the Bureau screaming don't do this!
Forecasts based around ENSO at this time of year are only 30% reliable.
My point is(and I think it has been missed here) that CO2 production is falling so rapidly that it is affecting the ability of forecasters to accurately forecast.
We have never been in this position of rapid reduction in CO2 production before.
very interesting reading, thanks guys
Here's a direct quote from the boffins at the bureau.."El nino events are not always associated with drought over Australia, but are often associated with drought, with the main impacts over eastern Australia." Dr Lynette Bettio..60% chance of possible showers?
You're swinging at shadows there Barley.
Whats your point? You don't think ENSO cycles are one of the main drivers of short term climate variability in Aus?
Southey, what do you think of this neggo IOD while this Nino ramps up? Ever seen that?
"highly intellectual but socially inept people"
"boffins"
Back in the ute Barley.
It snowed in the outskirts of Melbourne today. Unpredicted.....
Some stocks of some company went down today, unpredicted! The value of the AUD against another currency changed, unpredicted!
What's your point?
My point is(and I think it has been missed here) that CO2 production is falling so rapidly that it is affecting the ability of forecasters to accurately forecast.
We have never been in this position of rapid reduction in CO2 production before.
OK, firstly as far as I am aware (global) CO2 production is not falling but be that as it may I am struggling to see how this would affect forecasting in the short to middle term, i.e. weather. You are talking about weather forecasting aren't you?
Ah yes weather forecasting braudulio.
Better check the financial pages on the drop in coal and oil sales since the Chinese National Audit and the GFC.
You will see that the decline in use and production of the two is causing alarm in many countries.
Check my previous posts. They are not incorrect.
.
braudulio.
Respectfully.
My argument is that for the last 4 years we have been in a rapid reduction of CO2 production which is shown in the Baltic Register, the current Oil Crisis(usage down 50%) and the collapse of the coal industry globally.
This all since the Global downturn starting in 2009.
So I am proposing"Global Cooling" is taking place with interesting results across the weather spectrum. Including forecasting. Because in part of some vested interests who don't want these figures out there.
As I said earlier I am on a hiding to nothing here. But the figures are correct.
Hawaiian regulars have described the season just past as very similar to one 30 years ago....very interesting.
I feel my argument is a good news story for the young who fear all associated with CO2 production.
Apologies bondisteve but your mishmash of naivety, cherrypicking, conspiracy theories, and random connections just make me tired. You seem well intentioned though so best of luck.
braudulio
That's a cack!
But the figures do back it up.
That's an amuzing view of the World Economy as it is today.
Yes best of luck to the new generation.
Ta!
That's true and I wish to clarify my argument.
OECD Total Final Fuel Consumption has been falling since 08 to 2012
OECD, African and Non-OECD Americas CO2 emissions have been falling since 08 to 2012.
These figures are pointing to a reducing trend in the developed world.
IEA figures to 2012.
This I'm arguing has an effect on weather and weather forecasting in these areas.
Is there still acid rain in the Rhine and surrounds? Things are improving in the OECD.
How's that?
It was predicted from what I'm aware of. Not uncommon with such a strong cold outbreak.
G'Day Craig.
Respectfully.
Cold predicted but not snow.
No worries. BOM even had snow down to 600m which is pretty low.
To then get sleet around some Melbourne suburbs wouldn't be unexpected in my opinion.
OK thanks Craig.
I'm using the front loading Quikie Wettie to. Despite Kelly's association with Houdini!
Ta! C Ya!
Barley, El Nino is usually associated with drier and warmer than normal weather across south-eastern and eastern Australia.
But we're seeing this El Nino co-incide with a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (warmer than normal water off WA and across the tropical Eastern Indian Ocean).
So with this warmer than normal water we're seeing moisture being brough down from the north-west, bringing higher than normal rainfall to southern and south-eastern Australia.
This was predicted by the BOM a couple of months ago.
As Steve asked, what this means when we have a negative IOD and El Nino event will be interesting. Seems that maybe it maybe won't be a typical El Nino event..
is there an analogue year you can reference Craig?
No would have to go digging, pretty short on time Wednesday's, will have a look tomorrow.
what about the fact that aussie is moving north each year? where are our experts now when earthquakes hit nepal then japan in less than a month. has any one seen the pictures of the climb to everest, littered with rubbish as climbers leave shit behind, disgusting really, and the japanese, god bless them, what will it take for them to wake up, as well as all of us.
Not a greenie, or climate change fanatic, but honestly, we need to change how we live, we cut down our oxygen supply, rape our oceans, pollute our air and freshwater and think. believe/ delude ourselves that everything will be okay.
Barley ,
If you draw an imaginary Line from Darwin to Melbourne , everything close to that line will get influence on precipitation from both the Pacific ( ENSO ) and the Indian ( IOD ) .
Th e more you travel away from that line the more one influence from the closer ocean and less the further . Ontop of this there are also mid latitudal influences in both oceans ( ENSO & IOD readings are strictly measured in waters /atmosphere at Equatorial -10 degs either side . ) Then you have WA's SW land division , great Australian bight 50 km coastal strip and southern Murray Darling catchment Sth of the Lachlan river also influenced by Southern Ocean seasonal ACW positioning and short frame SAM index .
BTW , BOM's home page is full of info of some of these more basic influences on Aust seasonal weather ..... In the climate - ENSO section there is a plentitude of info down the rhS . They have made it very easy for everyone to get their own idea on their own region . The drivers / index's forecasts themselves are model driven , they do try to explain local seasonal reasoning of forcing in their seasonal mid time frame outlooks .
If you aren't confident in their outlook you can always do your own !?! :-)
Forgetting Australia for a moment , a negative IOD is the " El Niño " of the Indian . And generally speaking as an El Niño ramps up the IOD will generally be in negative territory , but during this trigger period the IOD tends to be very flippant and a uncertainty period resides . Once a true solid Nino takes hold cooler waters in the WPWP ( WWP ) [Western { Pacific } Warm Pool ) tend to drag the IOD towards positive .
Last year was VERY similar to this year . But as we know the pacific stalled with a lack of atmospheric coupling to the SST patterns .
This year is different it will take a serious breakdown in the Nth Pacific PDO to see what has now or about " couple " between SST and atmosphere .
I'm not 100 percent sure on model outlooks for IOD this year but I usually take more heed of the Japanese meteorological Jamstec model . Another tell tale is to look to see if a strong Typhoon stalls in the Bay of Bengal this month . Apart from that cold water upwellings starting at GLand and Nusa Penida /Lembongan is the final tell tale that a positive IOD is unfolding .
BS . I'm not even sure if I'm to answer a question I don't understand .
Although I will say that there was plenty of warnings , and more so just look at the sort of swell running with accompanying winds , fair tell tale of a cold snap to follow .
MF . I was only talking about Australian regions .
I was Melbourne today for the solar and storage conference /expo ;-( .
Japan - I'm not so sure on , but at a guess I would presume not as good as last year . ?! .?
Just looked into this Steve.
IOD was negative during February leading to the BOM's increased rainfall forecast for southern and south-eastern Australia, but since it's sharply jumped back to positive.
So this means we'll see the positive IOD with the El Nino which isn't out of the ordinary.
Looking at these stats, there was only one El Nino and negative IOD event and that was 1930. Seems like they can't really happen together.
This years IOD (switching from negative to positive with the developing El Nino event)..
And the IOD and corresponding El Nino years..
Craig.
Great work. Thank you. I've been trying to put my nose into rainfall details for this year but this may be what i was looking for. And it puts all of that foul and incredibly stormy weather in Sydney around the start of the year into some predictability given the cloud streaming in from the NW. Maybe monsoonal.
I was thinking from October last year when all the Sydney southerlies started with durations of say 4 days at a time.
Thanks for taking the time Craig because it does add to the issues arguments here.
Can I add here that the IEA criticised OPEC for it's output forecasting last nite. The background of that is the IEA disputes the consumption assumptions behind OPEC's figures and that there will be storage available. The IEA is not a stand behind type of bureaucracy. They are funded to keep an eye on energy supply and demand as well as technology. They downgraded OPEC's forecast unilaterally by 300,000 barrels per day! Wow!
Why would OPEC raise the ire of the IEA with their apparently outrageous output forecasting. It's a good question. Just to embarrising. I've been called for conspiracy theories in this topic.
The enviromental lobby has been known to quote questionable figures in the past(as I have...sorry) and don't tell us they are not seizing on these questionable OPEC assertions.
Also you can't give black metallic coal away. Nobody wants it. The best cleanest coal. `
It's all the Global Economy and Politics.
I am still leaning toward a rapid drop in CO2 which has been goin' on since 09.
Thanks for ya time Craig.
Hey Bondisteve,
Global CO2 production and levels are at record high. This is real data form Mauna Loa, and basically the best measurement of Global CO2:
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/
Going up and up and up, and forecast to continue to keep going up...
Hello Monk and thanks for replying.
In short I have been spending a little time investigating the situation we are all very concerned about. And above all we are mutually respectful and that is the beauty of our surfing society.
My argument again is a rapid decline in CO2 production so as to relieve a social pressure on us all about a doomed planet.
The enviromental lobby has many powerful friends which rely on it's success in promoting a situation common to the one we have been through to the GFC in 2009. It's big business. How this happens in the light of the financial disaster that is Europe, South America, The Middle East and the North American continent is indeed an good question. Who is paying for the shortfall in oil consumption from the disaster of Europe and England and North and South America.
With the Oil War that is going on now between the US and OPEC over what's left of demand in the Global financial mess we have now and it's effect on their respective economies you have to say why is this insistance that more CO2 is being produced? Who is paying for this relative to the Global debt binge pre-2009. More may be produced but it is not selling!
Oil/Coal is being used as a Political weapon by countries who rely on the revenues from them to keep their place in the Global Economy.
Big business needs fear to protect it's investments. Solar farms,wind farms and such. It's always been that way. Check the British Empire years.
IEA just last nite unilaterally downgraded OPEC's consumption figures by 300,000 barrels per day.....why?
Because there is no demand and no storage.
Likewise coal use is plummeting. Chinese steel production will continue to fall through the end of "18".
That's if the US doesn't place an embargo on them.
All of this represents a rapid and unpopular fall in CO2 production.
Analysts who tried to warn of the GFC were "blown out of town". Now half of Europes gentry are dead by their own hand through bankruptcy.
Analysts get paid to warn preople.
Monk...don't top yourself when this CO2 increase lie becomes apparent.
C Ya!
Monk.
I concede your argument. http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/KeyWorld201...
Globally.
This is not the case since 08 in many developed countries.
Could you check pages 29,30,31and 45.
These figures are just to 2012 and I believe the trend will continue in developed countries.
A few good books about this issue steve and even in the smallest print imaginable, the BP Annual Report of Oil and Gas production and reserves, says that the figures in their document, the so called "Bible" in this field, cannot be relied upon to be accurate.
OPEC countries have found no new reserves, if this well known, lots of their buyers would be investing in other fuel sources.
Davedarave!
Thanks.
BP after the Deep Water Horizon fiasco which it will pay for through eternity because the wells are still leaking is consolidating it's business. Now mainly into investing and retail. They are still waiting to see the result of the Oil War between the USA and OPEC. Should the USA win they will be near worthless until the oil price spikes to $80p/b. So they need to entice investors into perhaps another dream should the Brent fields become unprofitable. Hence the glossy Annual Report.
Saudi can produce for $30p/b and still be able to offer "Tiger Moths" for international travelling types with service! Hey...any port in a storm...right?
Thank our American allies for snapping all to their senses after the prime targets of Bin Laden and Saddam were eliminated. No more Mr. Nice Guy.
For all else check my posts in Sea Level Rising and this blog.
Thank again
Craig!
Craig wins according to the IEA on CO2 emissions by fuel to 2012.
BUT!
http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/KeyWorld201...
Please note page 29 showing a reduction of most fuel consumption in the OECD.
Page 30 showing areas of reduction of fuel consumption to 2012 globally.
I have half an argument here.
Yippie!
Your second email prompted me to check these figures.Thanks Craig I had to justify your work here. And it's only to 2012 remember. The markets have dropped since then. Gees my "Super" really did make money back then....hmmm.
Ta.
C Ya!
Chinese steel production fell 1.3% for the quarter. Will continue to fall through all of "18". You" beaudy". Co2 will continue fall.
Yeah not sure where you're getting your reduction in Co2 from. Maybe output is slowing but the atmosphere is still climbing..
Here's the global average, additional to Monk's Hawaii data..
Craig.
Output pre 2009(GFC) and through the Iraq and Afghanistan wars were through the roof.
How can atmospheric content of CO2 today match the previous. Given half the worlds governments are offering negative returns on their Federal Bonds just to keep up social services. Who's paying for all of this increased CO2?
Here's the stats Steve..
World CO2 Emissions have continued to climb since 2008..
Some countries have cut their output while others have continued to climb.
Breakdown is here..
http://www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/IEDIndex3.cfm?tid=90&pid=44&aid=8
Is the rising of CO2 going to stop this years El-Nino?
Dunno.
It'd be interesting though.
Wots losing another million tonnes of grain anyway?
Craig.
More good work.
These stats are EIA and not IEA...so let's note that.
North America 6869.07 M/M/T in 08 to 6298.30M/M/T in 12. Reduction
Europe 4581.15M/M/T in 08 to 4263.26 M/M/T in 12. Reduction
World 29644.60M/M/T in 08 to 32310.29 M/M/T. Increase through Asia,Middle East and Africa.
OK.
I can't believe anyone could account for the CO2 habits of 1 billion souls in China let alone the rest in Asia and Africa even if you survived it!
Not meaning to be smart.
I prefer the nuts and bolts of the Merchantile Trade figures in the big three...oil,gas and coal. All have shown some increases(China 2010 to 2012 and maybe South America which is now broke) but generally decline since GFC and the end of the longest war in western history.
Are there any figures for the total tonnage of fuel(CO2)used/ produced by the Coalition of the Willing between 2001 and 2012? I bet not!
I'm still in the reduction camp and it's possible effects.
Don't think I don't appreciate the work Craig because I do. You've put some into the argument. And this blog seems to be really active from all sides.
Thanks Craig.
Bondisteve its good to see someone backing up the 'skeptics' or 'non-believers' side with actual facts ..not sure if your legit or not but you have a pretty bloody convincing.!WA is forecast to receive at least 50mm in the dowth(down south) over the next couple days and east gippsland has just had 4inch in 8 days.
Now what is ENSO? is it a dominant wind pattern caused by ocean temperatures?
If so if equally dominant wind/weather patterns are generated in the opposite ocean how will that impact rainfall?
And that is the main issue around dry stages/droughts/el ninos.
And how does effect deep south Low pressure systems and cold fronts?
How big is that high pressure system over oz ATM? takes up the whole country!!
Now a dual low pressure and cold front is goin to hit west oz..hope it doesn't dissipate or drop south too much for South oz..us farmers can use the rain!!
Barley.
Quick thought to cool you down.
The hole in the Ozone over Antartica is closing. Estimates as of last year were around 25%+ improvement. OK...?
Can you imagine the amount of cooling that represents to the "Lungs of the World"?
Barley.
Thank you.
Some background. I have followed world politics and some of their economies since "78". I see things differently I think because I am a "double currency" kid. I have friends in the US, especially in Texas. One was my shaper and long time worker in Big Oil. I have travelled there 3 times. We share ideas. Great people very accomplished who have suffered a lot through the end of the 1st American Century.
The beginning my argument was based on the Mercantile. THEN I went to the IEA site after Craig's second urging to check some figures.
http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/KeyWorld201...
Check pages 29,30,31 and importantly 45.
They show the start of the decline in the developed world...Pre GFC!
As I have apologised to braudulio , Monk and Craig I should have kept my argument to "The Developed World" because the figures(and I don't know how they got some of them) only support my argument in the Developed World.
Acid rain has ceased in the Rhine. There will be other indictors such as the coldest day ever recorder in Antarctica or the failure of an El Nino turn up costing around 1 million tonnes of grain at GrainCorp. These are things that we will be remember in the future , as we ride off to Dodge City in the sunset(2nd American Century) and what I am arguing becomes apparent.
Thanks for your time Barley.
More for the -CO2 argument.
Oilfield services company Halliburton announced in its first quarter earnings report that it had trimmed its global workforce by 10 percent, laying off 9,000, with more cuts to come.
Previously the company expected to cut up to 8 percent of its workers.
The news came as part of Halliburton's first quarter earnings report Monday, where it posted losses of $643 million. Revenue fell to $7.1 billion from $7.3 billion last year, but still beat expectations of $6.89 billion.
I won't insult your intelligence on the outcomes of this news in Big Oil.
What!
The SOI is at +2....?
How could that be. We were all gunna starve.
Looks like tropical water temps taken from ships engine water cooler intakes isn't worth shit. Just like the Marque 1 and Marque 2 buoys they put out there that were useless.
Better buy another 23 billion dollars worth of solar units ....that'll fix it.
Don't worry about the crop....China will borrow more cash....build more islands and we'll have a big dust up and produce some heros to shit on...!
Yeah good idea.....eh?
Have you learnt not to read the daily SOI figures yet .
If you must look at it and take it solely as a judgement of the climate atleast look at the 30 day running mean , and better still the > 120 day trend .
I've learnt plenty thanks.
Numerical 8 was the border for the SOI and predictions used to be in the later part of winter. OK.
You learn that!
2 billion pounds of Jet A1 saved on existing commercial air routes since the introduction of the 787.
Good for -CO2 production.
Learn that to!
OK?
Then you also know that the SOI reading is contaminated when the IOD decides to put a Spanner in the works . Don't trust it alone , its a 19th century study .
Yeah , and Lithium ion battery issues has seen a few fall from the sky and alot more near misses . You won't get any arguements from me on Climate issues though . Economic downturn will be the new scapegoat when " the stall " continues next year .
Oh really. Well while you are toning down your argument get your chops around these ones pal.
All water readings taken in the Pacific now by NOAA are through maritime engine cooling intakes. Georgia Tech and leading English Climate Professors are screaming blue murder over his right now!
These are the readings being quoted by the BOM!
You know where to put your "Lithium Batteries" kiddo.
And while your gettin' your head around that one....
Over the past 17 years the same Georgia Tech and British Climate Professors are recording stable to only slightly higher Global temp readings.
Using Global Satellite technology......this of course will be no good to you.
The SOI and ODI should not be used his early for the prediction of an EL Nino. These last two predictions are breaking with the Bureau's own methodology. They got the last one wrong costing a summer crop despite the ODI. Which fed untolds rain.
Do you think you should put your Cappacino down and do some learning yourself?
Oh Boy!
The Wall Street Journal has identified the lowering of "Greenhouse Gas Emissions" due to "Technological Advances" as one of four major hits to investor returns in the coming years.
Good news for -CO2 emissions.
Hey......eh?
That all depends on what they're investing in.