Rip Curl Pro Bells: Updated Forecast

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)
Swellnet Analysis

Last week our early forecast identified a poor blocking pattern for the Rip Curl Pro waiting period which starts on Wednesday. Unfortunately, even with a few more days of data the signs are still no better for the upcoming event.

It's not really the lack of swell – there'll be many days of 3ft (head-high) waves - but more so the poor winds that will affect Victoria.

A moderate sized south-west groundswell is due to fill in tomorrow (Tuesday) across the Surf Coast and then ease off through Wednesday (the first day of competition) and further into Thursday.

Bells and Winki should offer 3ft waves on Wednesday morning with the chance for the odd bigger set, backing off into the afternoon and further again into Thursday. Thursday morning will be around 2 ft+.

On Wednesday morning winds will be moderate to fresh from the north, creating some slight bump on the reefs, but from late morning they should swing more north-west, remaining offshore into the evening.

From Thursday conditions will become poor as a strong onshore change pushes through before dawn, kicking up moderate windswell during the day. The windswell will ease Friday but winds will remain poor from the east.

A small inconsistent south-west groundswell is due Saturday building to the 3ft range, followed by pulses on Monday and Wednesday of similar size. However, once again the winds will spoil the party. Saturday should see a light north-east devil wind, while Sunday could be a good day to run under lighter northerly breezes. The swell will probably be easing from an inconsistent 3ft.

Come Monday poor conditions will return with a fresh southerly change, persisting from the south-east to south for the rest of the week as a large blocking high stalls to the west, directing relentless onshore winds into Victoria.

There is still hope for a large swell to end the period, but winds associated with this swell look to be onshore as well.

Backup locations such as 13th Beach, Johanna and Woolamai come to mind when the outlook at Bells is poor. However, the organisers are limited in where and when they can move so they'll have their work cut out for them.

We'll continue to keep a close eye on how this tricky period plays out. //CRAIG BROKENSHA

Torquay Forecast
Torquay WAMs

Comments

Cylinders85's picture
Cylinders85's picture
Cylinders85 Monday, 30 Mar 2015 at 4:08pm

Have to say first snapper and now this it is kinda funnny welcome back to the real world.

brutus's picture
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brutus Monday, 30 Mar 2015 at 4:27pm

Not much luck this year for the WSL.....usually Bells starts tomorrow,Tuesday which would have been a great as there will be pretty good surf......

I reckon there is another window on Sun.......hopefully very light ...and then ....end of next week a swell but nothing guaranteed at this stage.....

but all in all Craig...spot on with those damn easterlies...ahhh

murphy-s-law's picture
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murphy-s-law Monday, 30 Mar 2015 at 4:43pm

If is does move, I'd like to see it at Woolami.

southey's picture
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southey Monday, 30 Mar 2015 at 5:12pm

Generally speaking , it'll be just a little too big for most beaches .

Maybe that should head to the prom . ;-)

Sheepdog's picture
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Sheepdog Tuesday, 31 Mar 2015 at 11:12am

Hey!!!!!! get your own idea!!!!!!!! ;)
BTW, southey, what's happening with Bastion point? Has the government fucked it yet? If not, should the WSL move the bell there, make the most of this upcoming east coast low, and make a political statement for all endangered waves at the same time?
Now that'd be a way to get people interested.... Bit more spice than the "fuck" word from Medina lol

http://www.surfrider.org.au/campaign/bastion-point-mallacoota-vic

erikb's picture
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erikb Wednesday, 1 Apr 2015 at 11:15pm

I stopped there on my drive across the country and can confirm that there is a stupidly large breakwall there now and no waves worth looking at on its inside. Shame cause the setup looked rad!

southey's picture
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southey Thursday, 2 Apr 2015 at 12:49am

I think you'll find that fishing access and environmental effects of the structure , the increased traffic that it would bring. Then the roll on effect of increased traffic on the entire town and surrounds that it is causing was more import at then the surf spot . But the surf was used another weapon in the unsuccessful fight against it . Not to mention the the abundance of fisheries nearby .

carpetman's picture
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carpetman Thursday, 2 Apr 2015 at 9:09am

I spent some time there over summer and the general consensus was that broken boards was buggered due to backwash on all but the right tide. Didn't get a swell big enough to get it going so can't say for myself.
But inside the breakwall, back towards the beach, there was a lot of sand build up and there could potentially be some great banks there with the right swell direction.

icandig's picture
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icandig Monday, 30 Mar 2015 at 5:20pm

Nice to see the branding of the event is aligned to main sponsor "Melbourne" - which is akin to Brisbane being the main sponsor of the Quikky pro on the Gold Coast. Melbourne is over an hour away from Bells with no ocean waves any where close. Maybe they could surf off the wake of the Spirit of Tasmanina at St Kilda beach? I guess the WSL take the money where they can get it.

hambone's picture
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hambone Tuesday, 31 Mar 2015 at 2:51pm

Interesting comment, but Melbourne has always been far more connected to the Victorian "Surf Coast" than Brisbane is to the Gold Coast, purely because most of the people who populated the place are Melbourne refugees. Founders of Rip Curl and Quikkie are all Melbourne boys, for example. There's no city around Torquay to have to negotiate on a surf trip so other than passing fairly quickly through Geelong it's an easy trip for Melbourne weekend (or even weekday morning) warriors looking for predictably lined up waves when a groundswell hits. I know because I have been one, and still miss those long range evenly spaced swells despite today residing on the East Coast.
So it's a stretch yes, to align Melb to Bells - but not like aligning Brisbane to the GC. The Gold Coast developed in many ways independently from Brisbane - more like a southern state refugee's paradise - in which, as a side note, the perfect beaches of the southern GC were strangely neglected for a windblown sandspit mistakenly dubbed Surfer's Paradise. Lucky for the surfers, until about the late 1990s when surfing "Super(crowded) Bank" simply became a tourism industry of its own.

Stupe's picture
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Stupe Monday, 30 Mar 2015 at 5:40pm

I hope they don't go to wolli. There are enough tards out there now without opening it up to a bunch of drop in heros - but I guess if the numbers watching stats are correct, it wont really matter. If its N/E they will have to head to 13th. If there is any east in the wind, let them head to Quaro if they want a journey to fight it out with all those other westcoast living bogans traipsing over on surfmats and other things masquerading as boats.
Its gonna be great to see them all going over the falls together on the inside with a bit of reef thrown in.

brutus's picture
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brutus Monday, 30 Mar 2015 at 5:50pm

they can't move the comp fri/sat/sun/mon......

Craig's picture
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Craig Monday, 30 Mar 2015 at 5:56pm

And that's the killer. Looks like they'll have to deal with lumpy/glassy but fun Bells Sunday morning and that's it.

Also winds for Fri/Sat have worsened anyway, ruling out 13th/Woolies in any case.

inzider's picture
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inzider Monday, 30 Mar 2015 at 5:57pm

Did you surf bells on sat arvo brutus ? riding a mal of sorts?

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Monday, 30 Mar 2015 at 5:56pm

De Souza for the win. He's going to be inspired by the similar conditions that saw his hero Trent Munro take home the bell and he's going to go full jockey retard .

lostdoggy's picture
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lostdoggy Tuesday, 31 Mar 2015 at 3:12pm

De Souza would have a much better advantage in solid Bells than small. He's no slouch in the big stuff anymore.

plops's picture
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plops Tuesday, 31 Mar 2015 at 8:13am

Run it at Gunnamatta.

whaaaat's picture
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whaaaat Tuesday, 31 Mar 2015 at 4:58pm

Or better still, Flinders. That way, if the surf drops out, the organisers can quickly switch it to a golf tournament. Or lawn bowls....

Joycey head to head with Old Baldy....

Wharfjunkie's picture
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Wharfjunkie Tuesday, 31 Mar 2015 at 7:29pm

Mick Fanning would like all local surfers and blow in's from Melbourne to clear the line up so him and his fellow pro's can practice.

memlasurf's picture
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memlasurf Tuesday, 31 Mar 2015 at 8:11pm

Craig looks good for east coast (of Melbourne) over Easter.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Tuesday, 31 Mar 2015 at 10:26pm

There will be windows for sure.

jazzman's picture
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jazzman Tuesday, 31 Mar 2015 at 11:29pm

Pro surfing is a 1% level of involvement driven by $. Elite athletes should be able to perform regardless of conditions and should allow an opportunity for more diverse sleds to be showcased beyond a 6.0 low volume slither.

donweather's picture
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donweather Wednesday, 1 Apr 2015 at 2:17pm

EC's trying to prog something very late in the back end of the waiting period.....although with the models struggling with back to back lows in the Tasman, me thinks the superlong range charts need to be taken with a grain of salt to some extent. Fingers crossed on EC though.

It may possibly be too late for the comp window too if it's (fetch) delayed any further.

thermalben's picture
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thermalben Wednesday, 1 Apr 2015 at 2:58pm

I'm impressed with KP. He managed to describe the problematic synoptic pattern (large blocking highs, and a lack of NE-tracking polar lows) reasonably well for a lay-person.

southey's picture
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southey Wednesday, 1 Apr 2015 at 3:03pm

I'm led to believe that KP has a pretty robust IQ level .
so if amateurs amongst us can get it I'm unsure why you would not think that he'd be all over it .

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Wednesday, 1 Apr 2015 at 3:06pm

It's not about 'getting it', southey. Plenty of people can read weather maps and swell charts.

The hardest part is communicating it effectively. Especially on a live webcast.

southey's picture
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southey Wednesday, 1 Apr 2015 at 3:10pm

yeah i'd be fucked .

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Wednesday, 1 Apr 2015 at 3:11pm

Haha, put so eloquently :p

southey's picture
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southey Wednesday, 1 Apr 2015 at 3:14pm

Apparently brash uncouth expletives are all the rage on WSL live media .... maybe i should lineup for a job .

lostdoggy's picture
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lostdoggy Wednesday, 1 Apr 2015 at 4:16pm

Winki wasn't contestable today? For women or men?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Wednesday, 1 Apr 2015 at 4:18pm

Looked good right after they called it off. Don't know if infrastructure was setup for Winki yet, heard they were still testing speakers through the day etc..

lostdoggy's picture
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lostdoggy Wednesday, 1 Apr 2015 at 4:29pm

Ha!
Anyone interview Gabby about that decision?
Surely they could've gone on hold for a bit.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local Wednesday, 1 Apr 2015 at 6:01pm

Here is a forecast update. Absolute crap for the foreseeable future.
The forecast charts have not shifted at all for days it looks like a virtual guarantee that Easterly winds and small swells are on the cards. We may get the occasional southerly blast but off shores and decent swell look highly unlikely. May get a light land breeze Sunday morning fanning a very ordinary peaky swell.
I just hope the WSL does the right thing by the punters and runs the event over Easter. Better to run it in crap with people watching, rather than running it in crap in front of empty stands.

shaun's picture
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shaun Wednesday, 1 Apr 2015 at 7:11pm

:-)))

Rabbits68's picture
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Rabbits68 Thursday, 2 Apr 2015 at 10:58am

Kelly Slater is retiring after the Bells contest?!? Old news??

oiley's picture
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oiley Thursday, 2 Apr 2015 at 11:08am

yeah he put it up on instagram half hr ago.. april 1st in US?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 2 Apr 2015 at 11:11am

Guys, what day is it in the US..

Rabbits68's picture
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Rabbits68 Thursday, 2 Apr 2015 at 11:11am

You fools :-)

Rabbits68's picture
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Rabbits68 Thursday, 2 Apr 2015 at 11:17am

It would be second time round for that 1st April hoax from KS tho wouldn't it?? Could be the real deal, given the surf he's had to endure at Snapper & now Bells :-)

carpetman's picture
carpetman's picture
carpetman Thursday, 2 Apr 2015 at 11:19am

Hmmm...

http://www.swellnet.com/news/surfpolitik/2014/04/01/kelly-slater-quits-q...

Another dramatic release on the same day last year

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 2 Apr 2015 at 11:20am

Yeah that was legit last year!

ACB__'s picture
ACB__'s picture
ACB__ Thursday, 2 Apr 2015 at 12:11pm

Kelly has too much pondering time at bells. It must mess with his mechanics. That's assuming he is of course a robot.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 2 Apr 2015 at 11:51am

Confirmation with this hashtag.. #HappyApril1stEveryoneBackHome

brutus's picture
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brutus Thursday, 2 Apr 2015 at 12:24pm

oK Guys heres mt 11/2 cents worth....am a bit more optimistic on the winds....Sat Sun and Mon morning could be OK to surf as the onshore winds look to have subsided and could be glassy with low tides in the morning..there will be very contestable bowl in the mornings.....possibly even Tues morning...with Weds /thurs possible finish days .....morning time only......end of the week looks easterly....yuk!

so will be an OK Easter....mostly mornings ....and will be able to finish the comp in the waiting period!

Wharfjunkie's picture
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Wharfjunkie Thursday, 2 Apr 2015 at 12:47pm
brutus wrote:

oK Guys heres mt 11/2 cents worth....am a bit more optimistic on the winds....Sat Sun and Mon morning could be OK to surf as the onshore winds look to have subsided and could be glassy with low tides in the morning..there will be very contestable bowl in the mornings.....possibly even Tues morning...with Weds /thurs possible finish days .....morning time only......end of the week looks easterly....yuk!

so will be an OK Easter....mostly mornings ....and will be able to finish the comp in the waiting period!

Thanks Brutus my buddies who carpool from StKilda will now know what to look for to get less crowded waves at Bells. If you see me come say hi I will be the guy with the well groomed beard and retro MR single fin holding the selfie stick.

Rabbits68's picture
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Rabbits68 Thursday, 2 Apr 2015 at 12:58pm

I assume you'll be carpooling in the fully restored VW Kombie?!? :-)

Wharfjunkie's picture
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Wharfjunkie Thursday, 2 Apr 2015 at 1:21pm
Rabbits68 wrote:

I assume you'll be carpooling in the fully restored VW Kombie?!? :-)

No no us hipsters ride in my HR holden station wagon. If it's too heavy at bells 4ft or above we head down to torquay for some straight handers. After that we go to the patagonia store and stock up before a rush back to StKilda so we can tell the chicks at the bar about our day surfing epic bells and show them a few selfies.

Rabbits68's picture
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Rabbits68 Thursday, 2 Apr 2015 at 1:35pm

Haha!! Nice one. A splendid day out :-)

Wharfjunkie's picture
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Wharfjunkie Thursday, 2 Apr 2015 at 3:08pm

It's always a splashing outing. Especially when we get a party wave me on my twin fin my pal on his mal in front and a new found acquaintance behind who is always cheering I think. Sometimes my Dad and Uncle join us on their SUP's they are the kings catch all the set waves from super deep then get party waves on the other sets as they paddle back. Epic Go Pro footage to watch at my StKilda apartment the next day.

Rabbits68's picture
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Rabbits68 Thursday, 2 Apr 2015 at 3:26pm

A well painted picture. And to think, someone on this forum once described surfing as "anarchy" can you believe?!? I think it must of been predictive txt & he actually meant "for all the family"......

Wharfjunkie's picture
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Wharfjunkie Thursday, 2 Apr 2015 at 5:07pm

Anarchy no your right it's "for or the family" and whats better surf forecasting and onsite surf forecasting/reporting makes it so easy we can arrange the day before have the car packed with a plethora of boards on the roof ready for our outing. One of the passengers usually checks the morning observation on the way and we vote on where to go over a soy latte.

If we get to a spot and other friends are surfing we text each other to say where is good sometimes if we are lucky we get uncrowded waves of 50 at Bells or further afield. Once a killjoy loner had a go at us for paddling out in a group just past Lorne on a weekend trip killed the vibe man.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 2 Apr 2015 at 1:26pm

Saturday still looks dicey for me MC, only latest model updates are showing a light NE'ly. Most others have fresh SE tending E/SE (depends on where the surface trough sits).

But totally agree regarding Sunday and then every morning from Monday through Thursday on the latest data. EC still showing average S'ly winds Tuesday but better Wednesdy and Thursday.

Here's hoping!

donweather's picture
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donweather Thursday, 2 Apr 2015 at 2:16pm

Why the feck are they running now? It's poo!!! Is this the best it's gonna get?

Craig's picture
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Craig Thursday, 2 Apr 2015 at 2:21pm

KP pushed the panic button? Ha.

Looks fun and ripable though Don.

thermalben's picture
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thermalben Thursday, 2 Apr 2015 at 2:21pm

Y'know what, it looks kinda fun to me. I'd happily be in the water if I was down there. 

Bells under a strong SW wind is a LOT more surfable than under any form of E'ly wind, which is what's on the cards for the forecast period.

And, there's size on offer too: I'd prefer bigger onshore waves at Bells than small clean waves (ie last few heats of Day 1).

Just m 2c anyway.

donweather's picture
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donweather Thursday, 2 Apr 2015 at 2:32pm

Not sure I'd call "fun" surf what I want to see the top world professional surfers surf in. Seriously, it looks like a poor day at a beachie somewhere with those fat wash throughs etc. Not my idea of the WSL that's for sure and if I got knocked out in this type of surf I'd be super pissed off.

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local Thursday, 2 Apr 2015 at 3:08pm

Once the wind goes Easterly it's pretty much good night in terms of surfability at Bells. May as well hold it at Juc beach break.
Yes MC, winds look lighter on Sunday and Wednesday but if there's any sort of easterly chop running through the line up, it will need a proper offshore to make it reasonable.
About the only hope for decent waves is for the swell to drop out completely and the wind to set up from the NE very late in the waiting period. Relocate to PI or down South. Even then it's still looking very sea breezy in the afternoons all next week. If I was running the comp, I'd be getting as much of it done today, bang out a few morning heats over the weekend and keep the fingers crossed for late next week at another location.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Thursday, 2 Apr 2015 at 6:20pm

The surf forecast has just got a whole lot better (I'm gonna close this thread, we can continue discussing over there).

http://www.swellnet.com/news/swellnet-analysis/2015/04/02/rip-curl-pro-o...