Rip Curl Pro Bells: Early Forecast

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)
Swellnet Analysis

With the Quiksilver Pro falling in the only prolonged flat spell the Gold Coast had seen in months, hopes are high that the Rip Curl Pro Bells Beach will be a redemption of sorts. Ideally the forecast will detail straight lines of Southern Ocean groundswell under crisp offshore winds, the type of conditions seen over the last two years at Bells.

So will Bells' run of good surf continue, relegating the lay days of Snapper to a distant memory?

For the start of the waiting period, no.

The last couple of weeks have seen many fun days across Bells and Winki, but as we move into the middle of next week (the waiting period begins on Wednesday), an unfavourable atmospheric blocking pattern is forecast to develop. What this means is that we'll likely see a suppression of Southern Ocean frontal activity along with a 'blocking' high pressure moving in across the south of the country.

This doesn't bode well for the Rip Curl Pro as classic Surf Coast conditions are the result of strong polar frontal systems pushing one after the other up and into Victoria.

With those swell-producing systems shut down we're instead looking at small to moderate pulses of inconsistent background SW groundswell energy with dicey winds due to the passing of surface troughs. This will be the pattern across the state through at least the first half of the of the contest window.

All is not lost though, as the waiting period runs until the 12th of April, thus if the upper atmospheric blocking pattern moves off to the east, it could open up a chance for good waves to end the event.

We'll keep a close eye on things and providing running updates in the comments below. //CRAIG BROKENSHA

** The latest forecast update is at the bottom of the comments.

Torquay Surf Forecast
Torquay WAMs

Comments

maddogmorley's picture
maddogmorley's picture
maddogmorley Tuesday, 24 Mar 2015 at 3:52pm

Sigh....and as brutus mentioned in another forum topic that while the event is mobile it isn't mobile over Easter so guess that means there's not going to be any action until Tues 7th at the earliest

thepest101's picture
thepest101's picture
thepest101 Tuesday, 24 Mar 2015 at 4:49pm

True Mad Dog.
By the looks of things this devil high is going to ruin surfing opportunities for most of the east coast too.
Craig - any idea on what the Victorian Gov is charging the WSL to extend the waiting period for this one?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Tuesday, 24 Mar 2015 at 4:58pm

Haha, they've set the precedent now haven't they in regards to extending event windows.

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Tuesday, 24 Mar 2015 at 10:19pm

Bells always struggles when Easters early in the year.

nifty's picture
nifty's picture
nifty Tuesday, 24 Mar 2015 at 11:03pm

Does the GFS model hold any weight? It looks more promising around the 1st?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Wednesday, 25 Mar 2015 at 10:15am

The system that's been showing on and off the charts with each update (gone again with the most recent) tracks pretty quickly east-southeast which isn't favourable and it was arriving with onshore winds.

Looking at all the models and the latest updates remain poor.

brutus's picture
brutus's picture
brutus Wednesday, 25 Mar 2015 at 1:07pm

but look at tomorrow and the next 5 days...looks pretty good,

then Weds looks like head high sets but.....Nth wind...devil wind for Weds.....

a lot is going to depend on how blocked the low get......still early...still hope!

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Wednesday, 25 Mar 2015 at 1:08pm

Yep, next 5 days are going to be great!

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Wednesday, 25 Mar 2015 at 1:31pm

Starting to sound like Snapper all over again. Got smokin swell before and after the event, but shitola during the event!!!

maddogmorley's picture
maddogmorley's picture
maddogmorley Wednesday, 25 Mar 2015 at 5:58pm

Maybe they should look at the BWWT model....

Split the tour into regions (Australasia, European, Pacific etc) and assign each region a swell window. So for the Australasian leg for example we would have Feb/Mar/Apr. In that window the 3 events (Goldy, Bells, Margs) can run in any order at any time. Once a swell pops up the WSL call the event 'on' giving the surfers 'x' days to get there. Once an event is called 'on' then the waiting period for that event starts. The waiting period then runs for the next 'x' consecutive days like it does now.

This would possibly reduce the waiting period for events because in the case of Bells this year the next 5 days looks good - plenty of time to run the event. No need for a 12 day window.

The forecasting is so good these days swells can be called a week out with some level of confidence. All the surfers are in the region anyway.

Understand logistically it may be difficult to setup all the scaffolding etc but perhaps we need less of that and more of 'seeing the best surfers in the best waves'?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 26 Mar 2015 at 1:04pm

Update:

A strong pulse of SW groundswell is due to fill in Tuesday, the day before the waiting period, coming in at a good 3-5ft at Bells/Winki.

Wednesday (the start of the waiting period) will see the swell dropping from 3ft to probably 4ft early under under favourable N/NW winds. A good start to the comp!

From here on is where it gets average with small clean 2ft waves Thursday morning ahead of an onshore change and then small onshore waves Friday.

A possible small swell increase Saturday/Sunday but only to 2ft or so and then maybe a moderate sized SW groundswell for Monday, easing Tuesday.

We'll continue to update the forecast as we become closer to its start.

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Saturday, 28 Mar 2015 at 8:09pm

Moderate SW groundswell. Size please.

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Thursday, 26 Mar 2015 at 9:28pm

Small clean 2ft waves? Ripper conditions for Grom & I on Easter holidays. Like the contest we shall go expeditionary. Glass half full and all that ;)

Bob's 2 Bob's's picture
Bob's 2 Bob's's picture
Bob's 2 Bob's Friday, 27 Mar 2015 at 12:47pm

More optimistic forecast on CW - surprised?

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet Friday, 27 Mar 2015 at 12:54pm

Nothing to do with optimism or pessimism Bob. It's a forecast, if you're not realistic people won't return. Plus, official forecaster Surfline are forecasting the same as us.

carpetman's picture
carpetman's picture
carpetman Friday, 27 Mar 2015 at 1:47pm

We're all addicts, you're giving us too much credit.

Bob's 2 Bob's's picture
Bob's 2 Bob's's picture
Bob's 2 Bob's Saturday, 28 Mar 2015 at 7:05pm

i believe all events this year will be cursed with terrible surf

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet Saturday, 28 Mar 2015 at 7:18pm

Why?

inzider's picture
inzider's picture
inzider Saturday, 28 Mar 2015 at 9:23pm

Cos comps suck arse and attract a lame circus of glory hunting self entitled wave hogging brats.