Rip Curl Pro Bells: Early Forecast
With the Quiksilver Pro falling in the only prolonged flat spell the Gold Coast had seen in months, hopes are high that the Rip Curl Pro Bells Beach will be a redemption of sorts. Ideally the forecast will detail straight lines of Southern Ocean groundswell under crisp offshore winds, the type of conditions seen over the last two years at Bells.
So will Bells' run of good surf continue, relegating the lay days of Snapper to a distant memory?
For the start of the waiting period, no.
The last couple of weeks have seen many fun days across Bells and Winki, but as we move into the middle of next week (the waiting period begins on Wednesday), an unfavourable atmospheric blocking pattern is forecast to develop. What this means is that we'll likely see a suppression of Southern Ocean frontal activity along with a 'blocking' high pressure moving in across the south of the country.
This doesn't bode well for the Rip Curl Pro as classic Surf Coast conditions are the result of strong polar frontal systems pushing one after the other up and into Victoria.
With those swell-producing systems shut down we're instead looking at small to moderate pulses of inconsistent background SW groundswell energy with dicey winds due to the passing of surface troughs. This will be the pattern across the state through at least the first half of the of the contest window.
All is not lost though, as the waiting period runs until the 12th of April, thus if the upper atmospheric blocking pattern moves off to the east, it could open up a chance for good waves to end the event.
We'll keep a close eye on things and providing running updates in the comments below. //CRAIG BROKENSHA
** The latest forecast update is at the bottom of the comments.
Comments
Sigh....and as brutus mentioned in another forum topic that while the event is mobile it isn't mobile over Easter so guess that means there's not going to be any action until Tues 7th at the earliest
True Mad Dog.
By the looks of things this devil high is going to ruin surfing opportunities for most of the east coast too.
Craig - any idea on what the Victorian Gov is charging the WSL to extend the waiting period for this one?
Haha, they've set the precedent now haven't they in regards to extending event windows.
Bells always struggles when Easters early in the year.
Does the GFS model hold any weight? It looks more promising around the 1st?
The system that's been showing on and off the charts with each update (gone again with the most recent) tracks pretty quickly east-southeast which isn't favourable and it was arriving with onshore winds.
Looking at all the models and the latest updates remain poor.
but look at tomorrow and the next 5 days...looks pretty good,
then Weds looks like head high sets but.....Nth wind...devil wind for Weds.....
a lot is going to depend on how blocked the low get......still early...still hope!
Yep, next 5 days are going to be great!
Starting to sound like Snapper all over again. Got smokin swell before and after the event, but shitola during the event!!!
Maybe they should look at the BWWT model....
Split the tour into regions (Australasia, European, Pacific etc) and assign each region a swell window. So for the Australasian leg for example we would have Feb/Mar/Apr. In that window the 3 events (Goldy, Bells, Margs) can run in any order at any time. Once a swell pops up the WSL call the event 'on' giving the surfers 'x' days to get there. Once an event is called 'on' then the waiting period for that event starts. The waiting period then runs for the next 'x' consecutive days like it does now.
This would possibly reduce the waiting period for events because in the case of Bells this year the next 5 days looks good - plenty of time to run the event. No need for a 12 day window.
The forecasting is so good these days swells can be called a week out with some level of confidence. All the surfers are in the region anyway.
Understand logistically it may be difficult to setup all the scaffolding etc but perhaps we need less of that and more of 'seeing the best surfers in the best waves'?
Update:
A strong pulse of SW groundswell is due to fill in Tuesday, the day before the waiting period, coming in at a good 3-5ft at Bells/Winki.
Wednesday (the start of the waiting period) will see the swell dropping from 3ft to probably 4ft early under under favourable N/NW winds. A good start to the comp!
From here on is where it gets average with small clean 2ft waves Thursday morning ahead of an onshore change and then small onshore waves Friday.
A possible small swell increase Saturday/Sunday but only to 2ft or so and then maybe a moderate sized SW groundswell for Monday, easing Tuesday.
We'll continue to update the forecast as we become closer to its start.
Moderate SW groundswell. Size please.
Small clean 2ft waves? Ripper conditions for Grom & I on Easter holidays. Like the contest we shall go expeditionary. Glass half full and all that ;)
More optimistic forecast on CW - surprised?
Nothing to do with optimism or pessimism Bob. It's a forecast, if you're not realistic people won't return. Plus, official forecaster Surfline are forecasting the same as us.
We're all addicts, you're giving us too much credit.
i believe all events this year will be cursed with terrible surf
Why?
Cos comps suck arse and attract a lame circus of glory hunting self entitled wave hogging brats.