Into the red zone: Warm water pools off the East Coast
Sea surface temperatures off Australia's East coast are currently up to 3 degrees above the long term average.
In fact, the water temperatures are so high off the Northern NSW coast that if the synoptic setup were favourable a tropical cyclone could theoretically form off Byron Bay. For a tropical cyclone to form, sea surface temperatures need to be at least 26.5 degrees and the Byron Bay waverider buoy (sitting around ten kilometeres offshore) has been hovering between 26.8 and 27.6 degrees for the last week.
Further, our hypothetical tropical cyclone could travel as far south as Coffs Harbour. The Coffs buoy has consistently sat above 26 degrees. The warm water extends south too; Port Kembla to the south of Wollongong is up at 25 degrees.
The warm water is travelling south on the East Australian Current (EAC). The EAC transports warm water from the Coral Sea down the East Coast before splitting in two around the Coffs coast. One offshoot pushes east towards New Zealand while another continues southward adjacent the Southern NSW coast, spawning off cold and warm core eddys (large oceanic whirlpools).
The EAC is nutrient poor - warm water in general carries less nutrients - but it does provide a highway for fish and sharks, as it has for thousands of years.
What we're starting to see now though with climate change is the introduction of tropical marine species into environments further south beyond where they've ever encroached before. Just a few examples include longspine sea urchins off Tasmania's East Coast, loss of kelp beds down the Southern NSW coast, and in late January the first known capture of a Coral Trout off Sydney's eastern suburbs.
While the tropicalisation of the Australian East Coast doesn't appear to pose much threat to surfers, there is some concern for Sunshine and Gold Coast surfers as Irukandji jellyfish migrate southwards. On New Year's Eve a six-year-old boy was stung at Wellington Point, just east of Brisbane in Moreton Bay. Swellnet will shortly have an article on the migration of Irukandji into South East Queensland waters. //CRAIG BROKENSHA
Coral Trout captured by Derrick Oscar Cruz
Comments
Craig, Ben, donny etc.... We were having a chat about this a few weeks ago? i'm sure either Craig or Ben posted some stuff on this not too long ago, but i for the life of me can't remember what thread, if it was in a news article, or a forecast thread.... But there were some interesting comments, and I think Craig or Ben posted some graphs etc.... Any idea where that info is? interesting to compare.....
Ahhhh!!!!! Found it!!!!!
http://www.swellnet.com/forums/wax/233891
Nice work, yeah look at that, the SST anomalies and temps were even higher a few weeks ago as shown by the charts I posted.
Crocs?
Would that be why there are so many sharks in NSW (byron bay, Newcastle..)at the moment?
Not unheard of... I remember surfing Collaroy (!) 3-4ft NE with a light southerly change day before Aus day 2001. Water was 25-26deg on the beach. Usually wear a springy but was in boardies that day and it was still like a bath
http://oceancurrent.imos.org.au/SE/2001R00/20010125.html
Good memory and archiving!
.
If a cyclone takes the same route as Ola just recently and keeps it form.
IMO we could see it land right on top SE qld.
Good article, very interesting especially with the Irukandji jellyfish migrate southwards.
Will cull the crowds faster than the GWS's......!
It's only sea surface temp. Dont cyclones need deep (500m?) pools of warm water to be sustained?
I think it may only be around 100-200m, checking that now.
As a kid , I remember in 1991 a cyclone had traveled down from FNQ to be just off Coffs. The seas were massive, Mother nature can do anything!!
LOL a kid
What temp would crocs need to travel south?
They would easily survive in water temperatures further south, but they would have some difficulty breeding.
There is a photo of one shot in Logan River in 1905 and a 3.5m croc was captured in the Mary River in November 2014. There are unconfirmed (and questionable) reports of a croc in Yamba in the 1940's, while some experts claim they lived as far south as Coffs in the 19th Century.
It's only a matter of time...
Have a look at this link!! Amazing how many cyclones have been on the north coast of NSW. http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/history/nsw.shtml
1974 was a HUGE year
Zoe March 1974 Major flooding occurred in N NSW and 200 people were evacuated in Murwillumbah and 500 families were evacuated at Lismore. Landslides cut the main railway line in 4 places between Casino and Coffs Harbour.
Pam February 1974 Large waves also entered Botany Bay and badly damaged a restaurant on the foreshore.
Wanda January 1974
PAM in Feb was followed by what we now call an ECL in May (23-26) that finished that restaurant off
the old Paragon
Cyclone tracker map 1906-2006
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/silo/cyclones.cgi?region=aus&syear=1906&ey...
1970's
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/silo/cyclones.cgi?region=aus&syear=1970&ey...
1980's
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/silo/cyclones.cgi?region=aus&syear=1980&ey...
1990's
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/silo/cyclones.cgi?region=aus&syear=1990&ey...
Awesome uncle!!
There were waves rolling down the main street of Byron in the '54 cyclone.
http://www.abc.net.au/local/stories/2014/02/20/3948908.htm
As I said in sd's box jelly thread . I seriously doubt a cyclone could ' form ' much lower than say Fraser island .
The stalling , disturbance and initial vorticity would be rare especially with typical vertical wind sheer at those latitudes . But even then the initial said disturbance , rain and circulation would strip the sea surface of its " lifted " air temps .
Perhaps with a severe inverted monsoonal trough continuous tropical feed could help it . And the EAC has a fair depth component , but it's a serious stretch .
So a hybrid maybe , but warm cored would / could only exist once established and travelling .
Even with all this AGW we haven't seen a southern shore crossing in a generation . Regardless of all the above , the coast angle Sth of Byron makes it near impossible as most cyclones will struggle to track in any direction west of South at that latitude .
Surely with climate change marching forward all bets are off?!?
A warm cored hybrid system forming off the Fraser Coast is definitely on the cards Southey. Not terribly unusual.
Even a gender bender...something starting warm cored and then undergoing extra-tropical transition would do damage.
And a coastal crossing in SEQLD from a proper tropical TC would be equally devastating, as would a slow coast hugger.
Fuking hell, ex TC Oswald caused enough damage and that thing travelled the whole of QLD- inland!
yeah all storms do damage .
Proper TC's and STC's in particular make ECL's look like zephyrs , warm cored hybrids and transitioned cold cored ex TC's are devastating no doubt especially if slow moving from rain , storm surge and the like .
But coastal crossings of STC's are another level .
Yes these higher than average SST's will be a danger in that Cyclones could maintain intensity to quite far south , but there are other forces at hand and the trend of the last 15-40 years is that fewer are spinning up , and less are being coast huggers or even crossers .
Thats not to say we have just been in a slow phase / period of some sort of decadel pattern , but the facts are quite compelling that TC numbers in general are down ( unless of course you live in the Philippines , Taiwan or Japan . )
North West WA looks to be appearing as a hot-spot as well.
Tell us more, Craigo. When can we expect the next TC Bianca? That was superb.
The activity is more off the coast to the north of Exmouth.
Potential for future Bianca's depend on the greater synoptic setup and upper atmospheric steering if the cyclone starts heading south.
Yiiiew!
You heard it right here bro. Future Biancas. Hairless, heightened senses of sight and smell and genetically predisposed to asexual reproduction. Its the cyclonic incarnation of the next glacial maximum, which according to some undergrad zoologists stationed to the North of Kupang, is not too far off . Exciting times ahead for the West! (Yieeeew!)
Wont be long 'til we're strapping fireworks to Tute's Bruce!
Be interesting if this was to occur. Local water temperatures from say Lancelin to Margs are the coldest they have been this time of year for the past 5 years I reckon and a very late start to summer over here.
Water temps have only just warmed up in the last fortnight and first mackie last week, where as last year and previous years they have hit the decks no later than first week of December.
The salmon last year made it to Gerro, where as the past 5 years they had been lucky to make it to Perth with the warm water not letting them migrate back up the coast.
No repeat of Bianca on my radar, water is returning back to a weak Leeuwin current this year
How far south did you score your Mackie Uncle Leroy ?
Direction bank, Mindarie. We usually get them nice and early up at Wedge but nothing by end of 2014.
Water temp 2 weeks ago was 21.9deg, last week 22.5 and now 23.8 deg. Had to dive 3 spots for only three lots of fish coming through, 2x 10kg. First for the season is always good.
Apparently they have been seen busting up in Cockburn sound past week from a line fisho website, always warmer in there though
Good times mate. Hope you score a few more.
Interesting. Also worth noting is a big pool of warm water south of Albany, will probably flow slowly east over to the Bight with the South Australian current.
Interesting article Craig. Hypothetical cyclones, Irukandji migrations, warm and cold eddys. First and foremost I am stumped as to whether I purchase a wetsuit with more or less rubber.
Also, is there not another hypothesis that could be thrown into the mix which is in a similar vein to that proffered by the shark experts over the past couple of days?
The hypothesis I speak of relates directly to the population growth of the East coast which has in turn led to increased beach-goers. Now, the test case (being a backyard pool) has proven that increased bodies in the water generally equates to increased temperature levels caused by not only body heat but "urination events".
My question is: Could (and bear in mind this is hypothetical) the warming of the more southern realms of the East coast also be attributable to increased "urination events" along said coastline? I'd be interested to know what you think.
Tell us about the southern realms of the East Coast, Craig.
http://www.australiasevereweather.com/tropical_cyclones/1975_1976/bom/tr...
Cyclone Colin! We surfed Middle Harbour almost to Spit Bridge. In the morning I stood on top of Dee Why Headland and couldn't see where the waves were actually breaking. Banks of foam to the horizon!
Holy shit, I remember that BB. We were really young groms and Dad took us on a tiki tour. We parked up at the spit on the grass at the marina watching guys surfing it. I also remember the surf breaking against the wall from Manly to Queeny and wind driven white wash spraying across the road to the likes of the pub and houses along that stretch. Waves were breaking into the lagoon at Narrabeen and across Ocean street into the caravan park. I always thought that was in '74 as I was pretty young, but have pretty vivid memory of all the above.
Colin must've been bearing down / cradling into a strong high bb .
That angle of approach doesn't look that conclusive to a good direction captured fetch .
One track did stand out in that map posted above with all tracks of the last one hundred years . That cyclone ( although by BOM 's own omissions older cyclones were harder to seperate as true TC's or hybrids or transitioned exceptionally strong ECL 's , due to lack of satellite obs ) or whatever it was had the perfect setup for maximum wave heights but more so destruction in and around Sydney .
I wonder what caused the record floods in western Sydney in colonial times .
The cyclone I speak of was Jan 31 - Feb 19 1957 . Un named cyclone 14 for the season .
But in saying that , that period looked prolific .
Check out un named cyclone no. 2/. 06-16 Dec 1955
And Un named cyclone no. 16 / . 14-16 March 1956
Ive been a waterman on the GC growing up on the beachfront for 32 years now since being in nippers and I believe last year was the warmest I have ever felt the AEC by a long way and over an extended period across all of winter.
The ocean temp never seemed to really cool down at all and from memory only went under 19c a couple of times for very short periods well into the winter season.
Irukandji jellyfish have been here for over a few years in various mutations which I have seen about 6 now in total and Tally creek had one just a few weeks ago right in front of me at the cove right amongst all the swimmers.
Not the first one I have seen there either...
Yes it also looks like cyclones will form much further south that thought of before and again relates from last winter which has not seemed to change since.
Thanks for the info Dan, any stings from those Irukandji?
No luckily but they were all only feet away from me and you naturally get a shock seeing one.
They are never the exact same size or tentacle length either.
All slightly morphed but definitely a shame to see them moving down.
I wanted to get the one at Tally out of the water but had nothing to move it with and I was out past everyone so it kept on moving.
Hey Craig - I got hit by a stinger at Coffs about a month and a half ago - there had been lots of Blue blubbers about (the dome of those fuckers burns like a hotplate) and I assumed it was one of those. The problem was, I didn't feel it - and those blubbers are like footballs so when you touch them you know ( and you jump clear out of the water).
Anyway, whereas the blubbers' stings burn for 10 mins and then settle into a large red welt, the one I hit began burning more and more till I couldn't ignore it. After about 10 minutes the lymph nodes in my arm pit started aching, followed by the ones in my chest (I assume it was the nodes anyway).
I promptly went in and raced home, tossing up whether to go to the hospital or not. The burning got worse and worse, but the ache in the chest and arm pit stabilised and eventually backed off. I reckon the burn hurt acutely (like really frickin painful) for about 5 hrs before abating into a duller ache. After that I was left with a raised welt all over my forearm for a couple of weeks, which then scabbed up in these weird parallel lines. Even now (like a month and half later) there are shiny parallel lines where the scabs healed.
Scared the shit outta me. - not sure what got me though. It wasn't a blue bottle, and I don't think it was a blue blubber...
Wow weird as, was going to say Blue Bottle, especially with the parallel lines and welts from tentacles. But you've ruled that one out, so I wouldn't know sorry.
The bad news is that the CSIRO had a specialist who could have sorted out what tagged you, and a team well on the way to forecasting where the next Irukanji bloom was likely to pop up. Apparently not worthwhile funding though:
http://www.themercury.com.au/news/tasmania/expert-in-deadly-jellyfish-lo...
http://www.csiro.au/Outcomes/Oceans/Hot-ocean-topics/Irukandji-forecasti...
Think she works for MIT now...thanks Tony.
dude. you must have some wicked eye sight to be able to see an Irikanji. they are clear and less than 1cm max.
I was also thinking along similar lines.
They float near the surface in clear water
Shit Yeah! there will be Wahoo, Mahi Mahi, Tunas everywhere this year.
Who cares about irikanji? i grew up kitesurfing everyday in Townsville, ground zero for the Kanji's and box jellys, they are nothing to be concerned about. trust me, you should be more worried about increased shark activity this year with EAC's warm water currents.
I might be revealing my ignorance, but could the remnants of TC Marcia reform into a cyclone after heading back out to see near Evans head?
No, the upper atmospheric drivers linked to the cyclone formation won't be present once it moves offshore again. It will most likely make an extra-tropical transition and feed off the warmer than normal waters, deepening into a strong Tasman Low off the Southern NSW coast.
If Marcia didn't make landfall it could of continued to travel south with the EAC as a tropical cyclone.
cool - cheers Craig.
it could turn back into a really heavy tropical low again. We have seen that before - even to the point where they track back to the North and develop back into a cyclone or feed into another cell! The water is so warm its the perfect breeding ground for wild weather.