Frothing!!!!!

Stoked - I'm arriving Saturday staying accross the road from OTW. Hope the landlord starts filling those sandbags!

Thinking of heading westside for something a bit more manageable Tues/Wed, although I suspect the primo spots will be on local lockdown. Any suggestions where a solo, respectful traveller might get a wave?

What happened to the backdoor shootout? Did it (or is it going to) finish?

That storms NW flank is outrageous. It crosses the dateline too satisfying Mr Carroll's criteria. Any reason SN models showing twice the size for North Shore (25-30 foot 12pm 21st) compared to Peahi (15 foot)?

Politics be interesting. ASP sorry WSL will be desperate to run Peahi. Eddie won't decide until the day. Lighter winds all day, Longer period Swell - I'm picking Maui.

Surely Jaws would have to run if this BWWT has to have any credibility.

eddie ! ?

hughmungous

If its big enough for the Eddie it will be too big for paddling Jaws, way more exposed to swell like Phantoms on Nth shore. last time the two crossed over was Tow in world cup day vs the Eddie early 2000,s

Geez I don't know Mike those guys have broken through the barrier, and if the winds play ball I think someone will go if its possible.

BTW that storm is incredible...the WAMS are going spastic. I'm not that clued into the isobars but it looks like it bombs then two headed monster emerges and then it bombs again, and Hawaii sits in a sea of light winds, and then it does the same again off North American coast. Crazy

So is the Jaws event looking for a mid-way swell? i.e. big enough to be considered XXL, but not 'too big'? That doesn't make sense.

FWIW, I reckon if both locations are looking unreal, there's no reason why they can't run both events. It'll really hurt viewerships (as most people will prefer to tune into just one) but there's simply not enough swells of this type every season to be choosy.

Whats FWIW??

Problem - a dozen guys in both events though?

For what its worth ?

No just that Waimea is sheltered from bulk of swell directions to a degree thats why its the last place to be out of control on Nth shore and why it gets giant so infrequently and jaws gets hit by all of the swell as does Phantoms and other less well exploited breaks so will always be 5 ft + bigger depending on direction and if as big a an old tow day such as Parson famous wave tow in world cup day it,s unlikely they could run a contest there (not saying someone won,t paddle but could be just too big for safety factor to run a comp) , Also the honour factor of being in the Eddie, would be your last invite if you blow it off and go to Jaws.

The WSL has announced that the Peahi Challenge is on Yellow Alert.

how bigs it forecast to be at jahs ben ? 30ft and light offshore ) is the swell direction flawed ? how bout waimea is it a good forecast swell or flawed ? winds look ok there too . will this storm track into any other prime breaks windows like cortes , todos ?

Jeez tough call for the competitors to make.. Surf in the most prestigious big wave event on earth, or paddle possibly the biggest jaws ever paddled??

How much cross over is there with the competitors?

I counted a dozen Steve. I think they should run both. The Alternates are just as deserving. Be epic viewing

And we have a green light for the Peahi Challenge! Just waiting for a green light for the Eddie and it's gonna be one hectic day in Hawaii.

Looks like they called Peahi for Thursday local time... sounds like they could run Eddie Wednesday??

If they do get an Epic day at Jaws it'll be real interesting to see the viewer figures.

I mean, you would think this is the day the surfing public has been waiting for.

No Eddie. Not big enough for whole day according to RCJ

Here's the official link

http://www.quiksilver.com.au/blog/eddie-no-go-this-week?disable_mobile_site

I'm surprised, and left asking a few questions.
Doesn't the day start just inside the criteria for the Eddie and continue to grow impressively towards the finals? Did they choose Thursday for Jaws to clear the way for the Eddie on the Wednesday? Is the Big Wave World Tour event at Jaws really going to run the day after the big day?

I'll be interested to see the swell shadowing effect at Jaws.

Part of the reason organisers called off the Eddie was because the W'ly swell angle indicated significant swell shadowing from Ni'ihau and Kaua'i.
Maui would seem to have even more swell shadowing than Oahu from this swell angle. It's shadowed by the aforementioned as well as Oahu and Molokai.
Also a bit worried that the low occluded too far W of the dateline again. So size and consistency might be a factor.

Thanks Craig.

Be interesting to compare observed surf sizes with those circle path calculations.

I thought "The Bay Calls The Day"?

Very surprised to see them call it off in advance on what should be very close (if not over) the Eddie thresholds.

Perhaps the WSL are trying to focus their audience to the one location in order to maximise viewership/exposure (which makes sense in many ways). And, Quiksilver will save a tonne of dollars in the process.

Well, they (Eddie organisers) seem pretty confident it won't make the grade as far as surf size and consistency goes.

Another apparently bigger follow up swell coming so maybe better Waimea conditions for that one?

bummer no go for eddie ! so where are the biggest waves going to be surfed ? maybe a few secrets spots that need the west swell . just remember eddie would go , contest or not

yeah good luck trying to surf P-Pass on the peak of this swell .
direction and placement of storm is perfect , but generally speaking P-Pass is good when Pipe is , especially third reef roll ins .

this swell however will be Dangerous , Allois has already been on the net warning other islanders in that region of the possible destruction and danger with coastal flooding due to XL swell and king tides .

There will be waves in that Region though that will pump ....
Maybe even XL cloudbreak like Rights .....

I read on the WSL website that M.Rothman is a "Wildcard" for this coming event at Jaws. I thought he was currently leading the BWWT ratings. Why would he be a wildcard?

Something NQR about the decision not to run Eddie. It's the biggest swell in years, direction is good, winds are great.

Only know what I've read but surfline saying best direction is from 295-305 for both long and short period. With this swell floating around 300 it sounds perfect.

The period is a problem. I remember reading Waimea likes 16 second 17 second period, nothing bigger. Swell will get caught up in Outer Reefs and get channelled to other magnets like Outside Log Cabins. I guess its a massive cost to set up on the day and then red light it if it's a no go. But then its 6m at 18 seconds, geez be worth the risk wouldn't it????

With the event on at Jaws, I wonder where Laird is going to be NW of Kauai?? or will he be on Maui?

Also Southey won't those swells wrap so much that ENE will be offshore on some of those Atolls. There must be some crazy waves going down in Micronesia.

Surfline says at 295-305 any swell period from 13 secs to above 17 will slip straight in without any refraction towards the outer reefs. Any direction below this is shadowed by Kauai and any direction above this and the long period will be refracted and miss waimea. Based purely on surflines mechanics of waimea it sounds like an ideal swell.

Politics maybe ? According to Surfline they need 8 hours to complete. Not enough duration ?

Yes mick , theres another Pass nearish P-Pass . Sometimes some atolls don't like too much swell though , as the lagoon fills way too much and all the pass's even ones further protected from the swell have outflows which make em' crazy .
But there are also hundreds of options in the region . Big $$$ to explore though .
Blowin ... Google and other satellite programs are your friend ;-)

sounds perfect for Hanalei .....

"After assessing all available forecast sources, we are not seeing sufficient energy to run the event this week," event director Glen Moncata said. "The Quiksilver In Memory of Eddie Aikau requires a full eight-hour day of waves with minimum 40-foot faces. What we are seeing simply does not meet the criteria. Yes, there will be some waves of that height in the latter half of the day, but not a full day of consistent surf. We will wait."

The limiting factor to this swell episode appears to be a strong westerly component which results in Kauai island producing a shadowing effect for the North Shore of Oahu, reducing the size and consistency of the swell that will impact Waimea Bay, contest organizers said.

http://www.staradvertiser.com/news/breaking/20150119_Huge_swell_is_not_big_enough_for_Eddie.html

T Bonython, im guessing you are there what are you hearing -"Frothing" ?

Udo, maybe K1 is on his way there also.

Eddie would wait, and wait, and wait.

bullshit

time to freesurf without restrictions , good plan . kauaii gonna cop the full brunt & no cameras allowed

Tbh, I didn't think it went far enough E to be a Giant swell. And Pat Caldwell never got excited about it, which is enough for me.
Anyway, see what happens. Probably another amazing session at Jaws.

And we're definitely off: the WSL just issued a press release.

“The challenge with BWT events is that we’re dealing with some of the rawest energy on Earth which is required to create waves of significant size," said Peter Mel, WSL Big Wave Commissioner. “These swells require a very specific intensity, direction and wind component to be successful. 24 hours ago, the elements were aligning for Thursday and our Green Alerts go out 72 hours in advance to get all the various event mechanisms into gear. The swell looked good and so we called it on. Today, it’s a different story unfortunately and we’re calling the event off for now.”

Surfline, official forecaster for the 2014/2015 WSL BWT season, are calling for:
 
After a couple of good days over the weekend, the data we’ve been able to gather today indicates that the storm has underperformed a bit in the last 12-18 hours. In particular, and critically, for Jaws it appears that the energy that we were watching to develop in the 305-315 degree band today has been a little weaker than forecast thus far.  

So swell direction is the real limiting factor here for Jaws with the peak energy centered around 300 degrees and a spread from 290-310 (swell window starts to open up around 305 degrees, but 320+ is best). Both Wed and Thur should have some good waves wrapping in (peak Wed PM, Thursday levels off to slowly eases) but should top out around 12-15’ (20-30’ faces) with roughly half the size of the most open and exposed breaks of Oahu and especially Kauai (and buoy 01). Consistency also on the lower side with the swell shadow. 

Looks like swell shadowing was the main culprit.

Great direction for the grandad of big wave surfing, Makaha , the local bruddahs on that side keep the froth level under control

mike that looks even more shadowed .
Yes a NW 310 + swell of that size would be perfect , but this is too west and will be shadowed by Kauai . Now what about the west coast of the main island .... this is so west some special spots might work .

The 51101 buoy is showing an amazing J-curve this morning, reaching almost 23ft at 19 seconds (the leading edge came in at 21 seconds). This is slightly above model forecasts. However, Mean Wave Direction came in at 270 degrees (?) - straight W'ly.

Gonna be very interesting to see how big Waimea and Jaws actually get.

Looking pretty big at waimea right now on the cam.

Bloody oath udo. We're running a Waimea surfcam this morning (see here), and I got this screeny a little while ago (sorry 'bout the fuzz).

The Waimea buoy is current reporting 11.8ft @ 20 seconds from the NW (leading edge was 22 seconds, direction has varied from W/NW to NW).

Sunny Garcia tweeted from Waimea 45mins ago: "Just waiting for it to get bigger" (photo looks like it was taken a few hours earlier though).

Palikir on the pump yesterday:

hows the viewing platform epic.

Anyone watching the live cam at Waimea - what's the consensus?

I watched it for a half hour.

Hard to see exactly what is going on but it looked about 15-18ft to me.

Waimea buoy suggests we may be just past the peak of the initial swell front. Reached 13.5ft @ 20 seconds from the NW around 10am (local), but has dropped a little in size and period since then.

The 51101 buoy data seems to plateau a few hours prior to that (between 5-8am local), which is a quicker transition time (to the North Shore) than normal - but overall the 51101 data would suggest we're going to see pulsey conditions throughout the rest of the day.

Cant see why jaws was called off, would have to be big enough, too big or too windy perhaps?

Not big enough was the call. However, they were wanting it to run tomorrow (not today), so it'll be interesting to see how much swell hangs around.

The 51205 buoy is NW from Jaws, and picked up the leading edge around 10:30am local time (almost eleven hours after Oahu, which is unusual) with peak swell periods of 20 seconds.

Its last data was 9.2ft @ 17 seconds from the NW, which is a little under the Waimea buoy - but the bathymetrical differences are likely to accentuate wave heights in the surf zone here more than Waimea.

The National Weather Service says: "Kauai's surf observations from ocean safety were 25 to 40 feet this morning with beaches closed."

Wow! That was heavy

So bad call not to run the Eddie?

You'd need to be there. I watched the cam for about another twenty minutes and didn't see a significant set.
Size and consistency were the reasons given. It takes a lot more than one random twenty foot set.

Yep, no doubt some very big sets - when the camera pans to the west you can see Outside Alligators breaking - but consistency, or rather the lack of it, is the key.

Not that big at Jaws yet - a few images filtering through on the web (this one from lucykelsey).

Peahi clean up set. Worth a watch:

https://www.swellnet.com/news/swellnet-dispatch/2015/01/22/peahi-clean-set

When its six foot and crowded and guys just ditch there boards not caring whos behind them is scarey enough but at 20ft plus it must be a freak out,10ft boards everywhere,chances are someones gonna get hurt big time.

TC's board didn't fare so well. Double snap!

Was TC at Waimea?

So whats jaws like today? Did they make the right call to turn off the green light?
& what was the bay doing yesterday arvo?

Some large sets at the Bay yesty arvo but the general consensus was that it was the right call not to run The Eddie - too inconsistent, and it mainly peaked through the afternoon (and also too west in direction, which affects wave quality).

Haven't had many reports from Jaws yet (from today) but buoy data dropped a little since late yesterday (when there were some bombs). Not a lot though.. should still be some solid ones.

Funny thing is: from my perspective, that one clean up set wave at Peahi was more entertaining than the entire BWWT event at Punta Galea a few weeks back. I'd prefer (as a BWWT punter) a not-quite-big-enough Jaws session than a large session at Punta Galea, Pico Alto or Punta de Lobos. 

It is kind of weird.

They've greenlighted two pretty ordinary days at ordinary spots that was about as exciting as watching grass grow,

Meanwhile there's been several high quality days at Jaws that would've been far more entertaining.
Seems the concept of the BWWT being some kind of saviour for the ASP/WSL was a chimera. Even harder to organise and run comps when it has to be 20ft.

True, true...but you know, their business model is a bit more complex. As you'd know, the WSL now owns the XXL, so go and take a look at all the videos from Jaws yesterday that are being co-opted by XXL. Doesn't matter that the surfer isn't part of the WSL or any other trivial matter like that, each one is heavily branded and exclusive and getting a shitload of eyeballs.

The WSL is transcending competition.

just saw Albee Layers five waves from the last two days on Surfline.. (link below)
How is this guy not sponsored by a major company, its like asking someone if the wanna sponsor the next dorian.... He does massive airs, clean style and chargers harder than anyone in the world...

Does anyone in the industry know why?? is he hard to deal with...

http://www.surfline.com/surf-news/maui-charger-dominated-xxl-peahi-sessi...

Does the XXL just take over from the BWWT . ?
Do you just have a Nth Hem. Season and a Sth and each contestant has to put forward their best two rides from each Hem's winter and its packaged all up onto one DVD ....... Or are they just trying to bury " traditional " BW contests , as the revenue / vs outlay on the net is way better than actual comps , liability , and the fear of like minded people creating a global community .
OR
Perhaps they are just going to be embarrassed that possibly the largest waves succesfully ridden in the 2015 Nth Hem . winter may come from the Sth Hem .

Hows this forecast for Tassie .

Lt NNW Winds 5-8 Kts going variable then eventually <5kts WNW .
Swell WSW 5.5-6.5 M @ 15-16 secs ............

Whos' in .

Has Jeff Rowley been sighted during these swells ?

In the words of Richie Benaud the Southern Ocean is having a sparkling summer

Wish Visser would get his Orion going. I have seen some of his Nine Lives project and its pretty good, great footage of sharks and diving. He's headed to NZ though. Check the Ultimate!

http://www.theultimatewaterman.com/mark-visser/

Albee Layer ripping. He's breaking down the barrier on those 8'6s

So it seems Mark has been surfing jaws judging by his facebook page.

@dinn albee is sponsored dont worry about that . visser was at jaws i heard too . southey how are the waves today ? wind was light nth here this morn too . rather big swell running also