It would be a truly excellent week to set up camp in say Whangamata or Gisborne. Once the North Island intervenes, we lose connection with the source, but this system would just keep on giving to East Coast NZ.

I for one miss the mystery swell days. It's nice to know, I'd just rather no one else did...

Pity about the winds but there will be pockets & in the early hours there will be places.

Please never use "would of" again. Thanking you in advance.

Ah, the grammar police are on the beat! Well spotted DB (jeez, you're more pedantic than me).

Believe me, it's a curse. Life would be more enjoyable if i could simply ignore "loose" used in place of "lose", "your" rather than "you're" and don't get me started on "there, their, they're". I will however practise patience, in preparation for the expected long lulls during this next swell.

it's and its.

It's only ever applies if it is short for 'it is'

Overuse of apostrophes is rampant.

dellabeach, sorry but whose give's a fuk about spelling, these is not a spelling comp, some of os never hat amasing whriting skilles like youse.
Be patient :)

Patience serves us against insults precisely as clothes do against the cold. For if you multiply your garment as the cold increases, that cold cannot hurt you; in the same way increase your patience under great offences, and they cannot hurt your feelings.

Good article Craig, really do appreciate your WAMS.
Back to back swells about time, patience is a good thing, I believe matures wiith age.

Well here's what I reckon............... Only kidding ;)

I remember many years ago (probably 10) a similar swell was forecast for the east coast but it just never showed up. I think the synoptic setup was similar to this one but it was even further to the east (probably why). Anyone remember that one and the reasons why it never made it to shore other than distance? This will test the memory banks.

Hmmmmmm...... Interesting call.....

On the bright side this is the lazy bastard surfer's (me) wet dream, i can paddle out without getting my expensive hair product washed out straight into a stand up pit with just enough chandelier coming down to get that wet but not drowned rat look....

"So I would say that could of happened in your local area plasm"

Could of, could of??????????? You had just been warned Craig, and you put that out there. I hope you were being facetious young man (facetious, the only word in the English language with all the vowels in alphabetical order!)

Anyway, where was I, oh yes, you egregious young upstart, get your act together.

On a slightly more mysterious note, even with all the information we have, there are still mysterious swells that appear now and then, and I kid you not. I have been tracking these things since we now have access to much wider maps, and I can tell you that there have been a number of swells, less than a handful, that have come in over the last 5 years, that have had no explanation whatsoever.

From Craig, from Ben, from anyone. I know, I asked them.

The mysto swells are not gone, just less likely.

Craig... You write, "As an end note, we can't stress enough how inconsistent this groundswell event will be."
Was just looking at my "hail mary" posts from the 12th re' this swell.
It will be inconsistent, Craig, no doubt.... But not as inconsistent as most swells from that region....... Cheers.....

Yeah, Craig.... IKR........ South of about Anga orCoffs will be very inconsistent, if not a hoax swell... But Byron to Fraser well be slightly different, not as inconsistent as one may think.... I'll take my opinion over to Swell net forecast notes, if you are interested, Craig.
Otherwise, fix those dings, mate, and get out early on the 25th, still the best day in my opinion...

I love inconsistent swells. It gives me lots of time to start lots of conversations with all the friendly surfing tradies on the Northern Beaches!! always so well received.

...writing a paper at the moment and checking the grammar as I (me, one) goes.

luv you'se work, dellabeach and zennagain.

So what's up with Newy being 3-4ft SE today? That seems a bit mysto.

Are Gina or Clive rich enough to mine the North Island of New Zealand completely off the charts and out of my SE swell window? I have had enough of that useless land mass cutting swells short and interrupting so many, perfectly good, long range, "mysto" swell generating fetches. Even in the short term, TC Mike's swell will be cut shorter than is necessary... All the Kiwi's are living and working on the Gold Coast now anyway- piss the North Island off and outta the road already!!!

@sheepdog, hows the 25th looking ? you still calling it ?

Udo.... Called that waaaaay back on the 12th..... 4 foot.... yeah, reckon it'll be 4 foot+. Asked Don weather to give me 24hrs each side of the 25th, seeings I called it 13 days early.... But Don's a tight arse.... (luv ya don ;) ) lol
Probably peak on the 24th early, but should hang in till the 26th..... Shame about the winds, udo..... I think real early though, on the 25th, it could be ok.
Check this map - 0700 tues - quite a slack gradient over the sunny coast with rain... Outer points at that secret spot north of brisbane lol

http://www.metvuw.com/forecast/forecast.php?type=rain&region=swp&noofdays=7

Well there was certainly no mystery about this evening's late boost of swell in Sydney. Full parking areas all up and down the northern beaches! I have to say that the accuracy of the swell predictions has become a factor in concentrating the crowd and it is likely to get worse given that the future direction of forecasting generally is not so much longer term as more precise local data. Oh shit, watch out for the 5.05pm set!

Blindboy just makes it all the more rewarding when you score it uncrowded. Unfortunately even Sky News Weather were pumping Manly as the place to be today, and it was super crowded

There's no doubt that had today's synoptics occurred fifteen years ago, the inbound E'ly swell due this Thurs/Fri Sat would be attributed to TC Iris in the Coral Sea.

When in actual fact it will have been generated by TC Josie, in the South Pacific.

Here's a rough overlay.

Nice thread revival Ben.

Just as an aside, I don't think I've ever seen better looking synoptics deliver shittier surf.

"(cue grumbling from the surfing Luddites)."
Those who are profiteering from surf forecasting and the way the information is published to the public would surely not call anyone questioning the impact their website has on crowds in the water "Luddites" would they.

Collect that revenue boys and who gives a stuff about the negative impact it has when you encourage people to visit certain coastline on certain days.

Ignoring for a moment the (generally unfavourable) local winds, the current E'ly groundswell across the East Coast would have definitely been a contender for 'mystery swell', but adding further confusion would have been the presence of TC Tino a week ago.

To recap: TC Tino first began to develop near the Solomon Islands around Jan 11 but didn't reach TC category until Jan 16. It was always too far east for the regular BOM charts but first appeared on the BOM's Pacific Ocean MSLP Manual Analysis on Jan 17 (see examples of both below).

Now, try to wrap your head around the orientation of the Pacific chart - I can't without turning my head on its side, and even then it's impossible to have any sense of accuracy in its position. And, it wasn't until the next day (Jan 18) that TC Tino emerged from the Fijian swell shadow; I reckon it would have been impossible to deduce from those map projections anyway.

Anyway, the 'off the charts' part is only half of the fascination here.

Those who read my QLD FC Notes will know that the early TC-classified stage of this system wasn't favourable for swell production, and that it was only meant to develop an enhanced E'ly fetch once it had turned extra-tropical - by which time it had fallen into the swell shadow of New Zealand.

Primary swell production occured around Jan 20/21 (see charts below for the 20).

And, here's the corresponding BOM chart for Jan 20.

Now, imagine the viewpoint from someone watching the surf in SE Qld.

New swell lines start showing through Friday 24th, and then hold through Sat 25th and Sun 26th. A three-day E'ly groundswell event is not as regular occurrence as you'd think, so it would have stood out to keen observers.

The Tasman Sea synoptics via the Courier Mail (probably in use at at the fish and chip shop by this time) would have shown no possible sources, but if you had access to the BOM's Pacific charts, you would have noticed TC Tino way out east of Fiji way back on Jan 17 - seven days prior to the start of the swell making landfall (and nine days prior to today, when the E'ly swell is still showing nicely).

Now, it doesn't take 7-9 days for an easterly groundswell to arrive from the other side of New Zealand. It only takes 4 days for a decent trade swell, and less for a longer period groundswell (because they travel faster).

So, there would have 'kinda' been an explanation to a handful of people - maybe a delayed swell from TC Tino? - though it wouldn't have really made sense. And to everyone else, it would have been a proper mystery swell.

And how about those people in Southern NSW who have also picked up long period E/NE swell from this system, located on the other side of NZ? It's one of those "no possible chance" weather charts that require a lot of extra scrutiny to have any hope in believing there's any possibility that SE thru' E/SE swell energy would have traversed the North Island and come back into Southern NSW out of the E/NE.

frustrating motherfucker trying to find a rideable wave off it though.

yea cunt of a swell with shit winds here.

Seen a few comments lately reminiscing the "good old days" where an intimate understanding of synoptic charts was the only way to score good waves.

So, here's a challenge: three consecutive days of newspaper-era weather maps. What would the surf have been like in South Oz and Vicco?

Onshore medium period large mush burgers.
The day after the last map would have seen good sized clean SSW swell with offshore ENE winds for SA.
Don't no much about Vicco.

Only one entry?

No-one keen to give it a crack?

Mattlock, "good sized" is a little ambiguous. Reckon it would have been a good size for RCJ, or a good size for the crew driving down from Adelaide? 

That depends on where you are Ben. Good size for crew driving down from Adelaide [except that it is not offshore there] whilst being RCJ sized at some other locations. On the same day.
West coast would be pumping with varying sized swell at different locations.
I'm still talking about the day after the last map shown.

"a few comments lately reminiscing the "good old days" where an intimate understanding of synoptic charts was the only way to score good waves."

The check every morning crew would have done alright as well as the keep an eye on it through the day crew.

I think the good ol days is more about not having a big portion of the surf population reorganise their diary for forecast good surf so that those that live on the coast, surf regularly or are good at forecasting themselves had a better chance of uncrowded quality.
Not that you actually had to be good at predicting off the charts you posted.

Only stirring mattlock.. just pointing out how 'good size' means different things to different people (and different coasts).

You're right though, the day after the last chart produced the best waves of the synoptic cycle. Just curious if anyone's interested to put a size on it.

Of course, it's bloody difficult because the weather charts didn't cover much of the Southern Ocean. Here is the old chart superimposed over the top of our current synoptic charts (used for Vicco).

Look, without dragging it on, the old synoptic charts I posted above were the three days preceding the Rip Curl Pro at Bells Beach, in 1981. One chart published per day.

Incidentally, the last chart - for Friday 17th - was printed in the newspaper on Saturday 18th (the day of the big swell). So, the first chart - showing Wednesday's MSLP - was printed on the Thursday, which would have been the first 'heads up' for the Saturday event.

Sure, they certainly point to a solid swell event. But, one of the biggest, best, cleanest swells (fine and sunny weather as well!) to ever grace the coast?

The best decisions are made with the most information gathered. .How lucky are we now to have all this information to give us the potential to forecast our lives. But forecasts they still are. I think people have forgotten about this and expect 100% accuracy all the time, which is impossible in regards to a totally dynamic paradigm like earth's climate/ weather/ swells etc.
Must be amazing and exciting though for those that still have a passion to see into the future as it were, and I for one am thankful that those people still exist, including the SN crew.
Those old synoptic charts were good for us though as groms up north. Big ridge of high pressure with se winds aimed at coast meant wind slop, whilst the old low pressure in coral sea meant froth time, but very rarely delivered, although dear old Winifred was a good girl.
Funny I look back and think of the shit we used to surf, and miss those days.
Must be getting old and nostalgic!!!!!!

I can remember 30 years ago heading over to the east coast (NZ) from Wellington with absolutely no idea what was going to happen other than some vague ideas about the wind direction. Sometimes we'd get absolutely skunked, but other times we'd farken' score with zero other people around. More than once we drove 1000km up to the Far North, got skunked and then spent the next two days driving back down to the SE coast. Crazy shit really, but we had plenty of time back then and petrol was cheap. I think this kind of experience gave us (older guys) an innate understanding of the ocean and a rather fatalistic attitude that gives us a bit of an advantage over those later generations that didn't put that kind of time in.
That said, I love all the forecasting tools we have these days. Windy is my favourite at the moment, but you gotta love all the web-cams, computer models and wave buoys that are available. I don't have as much time these days so driving 2.5hrs somewhere only to get skunked is not an option.

East Coast has always had low hanging fruit: Tradewinds swells, ECL's Tasman lows, TC's, hybrid lows etc etc.
Plus reasonably forecastable S swells if you kept an eye on frontal progressions etc etc.

Then proper mystery bags from South Pac sources and South Island NZ fetches.

In the good old days one of my best surfs was spurred by a 5 second glance at the ABC weather map where I noticed a vague little spiral of isobars near NZ. I took a punt and drove based on the premise that it would be unlucky to be flat. No one else bothered.

Often it was doing the miles in good or just indifferent forecasts that led to great surf.

These days the classic swells are known days ahead and often hundreds of people make decisions to hit the same spots as you. Funky winds remain a harder to forecast variable that can still allow you to get an uncrowded surf on major swells (or the tried an tested option of getting up very early).

forecasting is good now but it still has error margins, and it's in those margins that the sneaky uncrowded sessions happen.

timing, size, direction, local winds, favoured period signatures for certain spots.

Dawnies can be some of the most crowded sessions around here.

The good old days of wonderful surprises. In the south west if winds were offshore check the surf. Sometimes you could hear and feel it at night, miles inland. You were pretty much assured of off the charts action. Went out once and it just got bigger and bigger then massive. I cried, way out at sea thinking I was going to die. I like knowing the forcast now Blows me away that swell generated near Madagascar break on our shores. Thanks Craig and Ben.

"If you saw that in the paper you'd expect a great little swell for southern NSW."

Not sure I would think that Craig, unless I was right on the southern border, and even then, not so sure.

And who is going to go that close to Victoria in the current situation? :-)

Maybe for some Craig. Many assumed that swell just eminated out in all directions from the onion, back in the day. That's when the advantage of knowing the juice came from the squeeze was helpful. Everyone was looking at the lows, I was looking at the highs. I disagree that synoptic charts are "generally useless". I rely on them pretty much solely to organise my surf schedule, and am quite happy with the results. (Applied to the se Qld- MNC NSW surfzone anyway.)