Analysing the East Coast flat spell
Winter: was that it..?
Australia's eastern states have just exited the worst winter surf season in recent history. Besides last week's quick pulse of tradeswell, East Coast surfers have spent the last five weeks surviving on intermittent windswell between bouts of abject flatness. If you're a Sydney surfer and you've seen a wave over three feet you can count yourself lucky.
So, the question has to be asked: What is causing the recent lack of waves? And while we're here we'll ask this question too: Is there a connection with the frustratingly excellent surf the Southern states have experienced during the same period?
Before we begin, it must be noted that we are scientists, and as such, are rooted in the Western scientific tradition of rigorous testing and applied logic. Now, with that out of the way let's talk Chinese philosophy...
The idea of yin and yang is a model we can use to make sense of the recent winter. The concept goes like this: opposite forces are interconnected and complimentary of each other. For instance, there can't be light without dark, good without bad, and in Australia's current swell state, good waves in the southern states without bastard flatness in the east.
The reason for the contrast in wave activity across the continent is the positioning of the Southern Ocean storm track. To wit, it has stalled and focused it's energy squarely up towards Western Australia, Southern Australia, and Victoria for over a month.
So there you have the yin - the light, the good. What about the yang and all it's depressing connotations?
It's important to realise that Southern Ocean storms don't follow a straight path around the globe. The path they follow is more like an up and down roller coaster, and it's guided by the Long Wave Trough and upper level blocking patterns. Recently the 'up' of the roller coaster has been located just under South Western WA and it's created multiple swell trains aimed at the southern states.
Unfortunately, for East Coast surfers at least, the 'down' of the roller coaster has been located just east of the Great Australian Bight and it's sent storm activity – storms that would otherwise create waves for the East Coast - south and away from Australia. The current configuration of the storm track has effectively cut off the East Coast's southern swell machine.
Now, this setup isn't always detrimental to the East Coast, as during warmer months low pressure systems can develop to our east topping up the swell ledger with straight easterly lines. However, during winter the chances of this scenario are much lower and what usually results is a benign Tasman Sea with bouncy intermittent windswell and not much else. The yang – the dark, the bad.
The good news is that despite the apparent stasis things will change and the yin will invariably become the yang. When the East Coast's southern swell engine fires up it'll signal an upcoming spell of small waves and poor winds for the southern states. All because the storm track will be guided away from their swell window.
These patterns rarely last more than a couple of weeks before switching back. And this is what makes the recent lack of swell (or run of swell depending on which part of the country you live) stand out – it's persisted far longer than usual. To make matters worse, after five weeks without waves the East Coast is now heading into spring, traditionally the most quiet time for surf. Might be the right time to start reading more Chinese philosophy. //CRAIG BROKENSHA and STU NETTLE (who isn't really a scientist but just helped out with the wordy bits)
Comments
Eastern states crisis = southern states opportunity.
Crisitunity!
Thanks Craig, pretty much as I had thought. Some of the climate change models predict that weather patterns, once established, will become more stable, so there will be more long runs of similar weather. This kind of situation certainly fits that prediction.
Thanks for the explanation to what's been a disheartening flat spell (had two weeks forced leave right in the middle of it!)
One more question if I may. Is it too hasty to link this flat spell, and the warm weather that's come with it, to climate change? In my life I can't remember a warmer winter, the wattle has been in bloom since late July, early August which is previously unheard of. It seems so far outside the norm that it's worth questioning.
@Neville,
I'm not really in a position to answer that, and Craig has left to surf 1' slop at Curl Curl - all in the name of science you understand. He isn't a climate scientist but is better qualified than I am. Maybe he'll have something for you when he gets back.
Back, and yep it's still tiny!
I don't think you can link one single bad run of waves to Climate Change Neville, but in saying that it's been a year of broken records across most of NSW.
It was the warmest winter on record in Sydney, warmest July on record coming in with an average maximum of 19.5, that's 3 degrees above average! And also it was the warmest August on record.
In any case breaking records that have stood for over 150 years isn't something to be just put away as an anomaly.
I take the view that since climate change is clearly well under way on a global scale, it no longer makes sense to ask if a particular situation is the result of climate change. The climate has changed and that change is set to continue so all climate phenomena are now a consequence of it, since if it had not occurred things would have been different.
@n-b-buddha, thats not very nice of work giving you forced leave mate, feel for ya there.
quote bb, "more long runs of similar weather", You gotta love that call when it comes to forecasting weather, "tomorrow will be similar to today"?.... Well thats what I say.
Anyways on the positvie note for me , I don't have cut up anymore fire wood for next winter now, yeh ha, time hopefully to surf next autumn.
Yeah its been the warmest and flattest winter up here in the Hinterland that ive experienced in the 10 years.
this situation also caused the shit run of snow over in new zealand pushing lows down below the south island and a continual warm flow of air from Oz to NZ. boarding in T-shirts.
Of course, there is the slightest possibility that the long wave trough will just happily work to my advantage and set up a wonderful series of south swells from 23rd September, operating consistently for let's say, 2 weeks.
Which would just happily coincide with my next holidays.
Brokensha, make it so.
Ah yes, also means that I haven't missed anything in the 4 weeks since I contracted flu and am only now feeling like I am close to full recovery.
Worst flu I have ever got.
Had a nice run prior to that of smaller but perfectly groomed offshore swells, which I did partake in.
By coincidence, I have made the best of what has been on offer, and that has not been my luck in recent years.
Looking forward to this working in our favour sometime soon.
Hiya all.
Sure it ain't been big but its been good. Maybe we get a touch more swell here in Newy but i've surfed pretty much 5 or more days a week since as long as i can remember.
Get yourself one of these;http://www.hydroflex-surfboards.com/surf-boards/view/bottom-feeder/index... and everything below 3ft is awesome.
Chin up. If it's salty and wet, its amazing :)
Yeah Newy has been the pick, raking in all the available south swell that's been creeping into the Tasman Sea.
And don't get me wrong, I've surfed nearly every day as well but 2ft Curly shories get a little boring after a month.
I'd rather be surfing triple what we've been having around Sydney instead of grovelling around on my small wave boards. Glad to have made the most of that east swell at the start of August, surfing 6 times in a weekend out of Sydney in perfect crystal clear beachies.
I'll go you one better Rat Race: https://store.wavejet.com/systems/longboard/9-0-longboard
the flat spell has been my fault , i got a new board 6 weeks ago , and this happens every time i get a new 1...
ummm i'd be keen to give it a go if you could fit one on my 5'8" Pattie.
We've had amazing banks at all of our beaches too which seem to work in all swell sizes.
P.S. I believe that the crazy German HF boards are coming to Aus. They are freakin good.
Peace
RR
I've got a different explanation for you. See, I left living in one of the southern states to return back to living on the Gold Coast. As a grom I always seem to remember winter being shit up here, but since the advent of the internet I kept seeing pictures of pumping waves all year round. For the last couple of years, the waves around my local area down south sucked so bad I convinced myself to move back up here, and now the waves around my local up here suck, leading me to the obvious conclusion that Huey hates me, and follows me around with consistent flat spells (I've also done two trips to the south pacific of two weeks each in prime time of year to get nothing but flat AND onshore conditions).
So, I plan on starting a paypal account for people to donate into to convince me to leave the Gold Coast in the hope that I stop scaring the waves away. Who wants the deposit details?
Sorry BD, I don't give money to beggars, I only shell out for buskers.
Know any good songs?
Pearl Jam, Big Wave?
Hi patty I have been researching wavejet's technology and I think I have a do-it-yourself way of achieving the same performance level.
1. Take a 5kg weight training plate and place it on the deck just in front of the fins.
2. Trace around it and using your power tool of choice gouge a hole so it fits neatly.
3. Glass it and surf it.
Performance smerformance. I want motorised entry into waves, the kind only available by Wavejet or an Uplift-style paddle training program.
And I don't like training.
.....love the sense of entitlement patty.
I can ditch the 9'0" and get the 6'2" Wavejet if it helps?
Whatever you like patty but have you checked the relevant laws? I have never seen one used but as a powered craft the usual thing is that they have to stay 200m from other water users.
@BB,
I think this issue is going to become more common than we care. I've been told Wave Jet are planning a push into Australia soon and I've also seen ads for similar style motorised surfboards around the place. They're only going to become more prevalent.
Check these shots that were sent to me recently: http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10151502457851389&set=pb.68435138...
It looks like a homebuilt motorised surfboard.
Whoever sent those shots to you Stu, Wow?
No wonder I don't do FaceBook, How is the peanut with the shot of "My hot Misses"
Where does that bloke hide his trumpet?.....
EADU.
Well actually, that guy is a mate of mine. A humble, likeable fellow he is too...just very proud of his wife, I guess.
Anyway, waterborne bogans, that's where this thread is heading.
hahahahaha...way to put your foot in your mouth welly!
...be afraid stu, be very afraid.
Of waterborne bogans or of Wellymon?
@prg pretty funny cause I can :) classic
@Stu apologies there.
BB
Its the eyes?....
Well at least this brogan, Mans Up?.
Sorry about that Stu,
Me and my wife think she's a spunk too.
Nah, you're right Welly, no offence taken.
I'm more worried about those damn waterborne bogans.
I reckon late May to early August was as good as it gets. ( must be a Newcastle thing) just lacking the big days, but back to back 4-6ft & offshore swells for months. Maybe we had a mini lull mid July too, it was only after the amazing run of consistency we hit that brick wall.
I reckon she's bit of a looker too, whaaat a spunk.
Surely you need a licence to operate one of those bogan buses.
CC had perfect East coast waves yesterday 3-4 foot, warm water and no crowds. Have the nodes changed as predicted? It looks like all the action is still in the Indian Ocean.
Little bit of a change maybe with some swell at last for Sydney over the w/end, but pretty average banks at many spots not really making the most of it.
I was on those nice East coasters at CC last week too Mick, very nice.
And tomorrow is shaping up to provide some of the largest waves we've seen in nearly 2 months across the Southern NSW Coast due to this deepening low pressure system sitting right above us.
It'll all about timing though as winds will swing offshore from the W/NW at various stages during the day down the coast with a peak in swell occurring around this time. Looks like the arvo will be pretty special across most spots!
Solid 4ft/4ft+ inconsistent sets this morning. Some amazing power behind them too. Haven't had that sort of power on a beachie for a while, hence copped a few floggings also!!!
That radial spread is pretty impressive. Swell period helped getting in north of Byron too I guess?
Almost felt like I was surfing the southern ocean with sets coming in in 6-8 wave trains.
Don where do you live? Newy?
SE Qld.
Ah right, the question about period was more trying to explain your observation, rather than asking what it was like.
I was really surprised that even that other report from Ballina didn't really rate it. Good to hear your report cos I was expecting it to be solid
Anyone get waves yesterday on Tassie's East Coast? Be good to here reports on size and conditions.
howdy Craig , where I went was 4-5 ft side/offshore (sw wind) and not very good, more exposed breaks were probably 6ft ,
Cheers Neil, sounds like it came in on forecast which is good to hear, so many nooks and crannies to score waves in along that coast!