Billabong Pro Tahiti Forecast
With Billabong's share price rocketing up some 250% since Altamont's takeover in July, the cherry on the pie surely would have been a pumping surf outlook for the Billabong Pro Tahiti.
Unfortunately, it looks like the opposite may very well occur, with no significant swells currently on target within the ten day waiting period. This is the result of a a broad blocking pattern across the South Pacific Ocean.
In last week's forecast article for the Billabong Pro Trials, we tipped a "moderate west-southwest swell for the start of the waiting period, with no major swells lining up beyond this for the first week".
This initial west-southwest swell is still on track, although has been slightly downgraded in the latest model runs. It will have originated from a cut-off low currently located east of New Zealand's North Island, having formed a band of westerly gales aimed toward locations mainly south of Tahiti. The low has a short fetch length and is not expected to last very long, so its swell potential (for Tahiti) is limited.
Unfortunately for the Billabong Pro, the Long Wave Trough is positioned across the Australian region this week (which is great news for Victoria!), and a substantial upper atmosphere blocking pattern east of New Zealand is steering storm activity outside of Tahiti's swell window.
New swell from the cut-off low east of New Zealand should build to an inconsistent 3ft or so through Thursday and Friday (local time), with moderating E'ly winds Thursday tending variable on Friday. With the swell small and out of the west-southwest, wave quality will probably be short and fickle.
Beyond this a weak mid-latitude front pushing towards Tahiti through the end of this week should generate a mid-period south-west swell early next week, but we're probably not looking at much size above 3-4ft.
In last week's forecast, we also mentioned that the outlook for the rest of the event revolved around the future position of the Long Wave Trough. We wrote:
"The chance for a solid swell during the second half of the waiting period hinges on the movement of the Long Wave Trough across Australian longitudes later next week. Confidence is currently not high on any major swell events at this point in time, however we'll update this in a later article".
As of today, there's still nothing significant on the horizon. Some computer models are suggesting we'll see a polar low form well to the south of Tahiti this weekend – that could potentially kick up a decent south swell towards the end of the waiting period - but there's been considerable divergence between the models as to where the low will develop, how strong it'll be and how long it'll hang around. Therefore we really can't have any confidence on the long term outlook right now, however things will become clearer in the coming days.
Keep an eye on the comments section below where we'll update the long term outlook as new model data becomes available. //CRAIG BROKENSHA with BEN MATSON
Comments
If they get skunked for waves, which is looking likely... Makes you wonder why they ever changed Tahiti from May to August on the ASP calendar.
Remember back to May? Two macking swells within three weeks of each other. What was it Craig, 18 metres at 22 seconds or something ridiculous like that?
Looks like I may have achieved a personal best with my long range forecasting. 4 months ago, in Stu's article 'Billabong reduced to a ripple' (re: exclusive talks with takeover bidder), I wrote:
"Jeez, that's a bad run. At this rate I'd be confident of a two week flat spell descending on Tahiti mid-August."
Hmmm...
Gee Craig, I think you're being a little on the low side with some of the surf heights above. Given Chopes deep water, I'd think 3ft for Thursday is a little harsh. I wouldn't be surprised if we didn't see some freak sets approaching 4ft+, maybe even 5ft if all the planets align come Thursday.
Whilst I agree there's nothing macking on the charts, there certainly looks to be no shortage of contestable waves in the long range forecast (certainly will be way more contestable than Brazil!!). Will just mean I may have to change my Fantasy Surfer Team to the small wave specialists!!! ;)
Don, raw model data is only 1.4m @ 12 seconds. For this forecast, we've defaulted to the output of our internal model, as it's been spot on over the last few months (we over-called the Trials swell against the model's advice, whilst the model got it bang on!).
FWIW, Craig did want to call the first W/SW swell 3-4ft rather than 3ft but I argued that the storm wasn't strong enough, or close enough to Tahiti to really get things moving.
From past experience, I've also been caught out slightly overcalling swells with a westerly bias in them as well, so I thought it'd be better to undercall this one.
BTW, I dunno if the word 'contestable' can be used at Teahupoo when it's small. From my vantage point watching the webcast, it seems to be quite a short, boring wave when it's under 5ft. I can think of a bunch of other waves in the tropics that'd be much more contestable at 3-4ft than Chopes.
Thanks for answering that Ben, Don those are my thoughts :)
Already a few wiggles in the model data since the article was written.
The small fronts pushing through later this week should kick up a low/mid-period SW swell on Sunday afternoon (rather than early next week, as suggested above) - current model output is 1.7m @ 11.2 sec which equates to around 4ft in the surf zone. Size will then ease slowly through Monday from about 3ft.
Persistent small surf is modeled to dominate the middle of the following week.
The next pulse of new energy isn't due until Friday 23rd, with another late pulse into the 3-4ft range, ahead of a much stronger S/SW swell (from the polar low mentioned above) holding 5-6ft on Saturday 24th and Sunday 25th.
This is all GFS derived and the numbers are moving around quite a bit at the moment, so it will be interesting to see how the models evolve over the coming days.
Chopes is pretty fickel. The event would get sic waves if it were mobile there. Its a big farking island!
Thats what I was thinking timmeh. In previous years haven't some of the guys been surfing good waves at other spots while Chopes was a dribble lei day. Should they not explore the possibility of other options? I know I would open the discussion if I was contest dir. based off your forecast.
I personally don't think they'll run it on Thursday/Friday anyway as they'll be hoping the forecast improves throughout the waiting period, so we probably won't get to see what surf is actually on offer these days anyway.
And as you said, forecast for this weekend is already on the up.
But.. with a marginal outlook they are less likely to get full days completed (as surf conditions will be more susceptible to tide/wind etc).
I reckon if there's a reasonable offering they'll get cracking Thurs/Fri. Waiting it out until the end of the window is a risky strategy.
As for the forecast improving for the weekend, well that is mainly Sunday afternoon, and it's still relatively small in size (by Tahitian standards, and webcast expectations).
At least their bandwidth expenses will be somewhat lower this year!
if you want to see what it is doing on the lay days you can scope it at the chopes surf cam...
http://www.tahiti-webcam.com/webcam-teahupoo-live-hd.html
Just a quick update:
There's no change to the first two days of swell with inconsistent 3ft to occasionally 4ft waves under favourable E/NE winds Thursday and a light variable breeze Friday.
Sunday is looking a little bigger with a new mid-period S/SW swell to 3-5ft ahead of a drop from 4ft Monday. Conditions should be good with moderate E/SE trades.
From Tuesday onwards there's nothing significant due until the last couple of days of the waiting period, when a mix of S/SE swells from a polar low and another cut-off system fill in. Size is moving around a bit still but the 5-6ft call Ben made earlier looks about right.
As I said, IMO I don't think they'll run it on Thurs/Fri as they'll run on the weekend with the bigger swell, and then hope that swell comes to fruition closer to the end of the waiting period.
"The world’s best surfers will resume the chase for the 2013 Association of Surfing Professionals (ASP) Men's World Title in Tahiti this week, with organisers hopeful of starting event six, the Billabong Pro, in clean two-metre waves at world-famous Teahupo’o as early as tomorrow."
Will be interesting to see what happens. I reckon they'll start but can't see it being six feet.
Well according to Surfline's forecast for tomorrow "Head high surf, with sets 1-2'+ overhead. Max sets during the day even larger.", they're forecasting something from 3-5ft? Gee I wish I could forecast with almost a factor of 2!!!
Yeah their margin of error is well documented (remember Fiji?).
Will be good to see how our new model performs at Teahupoo during this (relatively) low period swell. Previous verification from deepwater tropical locations has been during significant swell events, however it's important that it works well during all swell events.
Right now it's calling (based on today's 00Z GFS run):
2-3ft Thursday, building a little during the day.
3ft all day Friday.
2-3ft early Saturday, building to 4ft late in the day.
3-5ft Sunday (biggest waves around lunch).
3-5ft Monday, easing a little during the day.
3ft Tuesday, easing to 2ft by lunchtime.
1-2ft Wednesday, easing a little during the day.
2ft Thursday.
1-2ft Friday, easing a little during the a'noon.
1-2ft Saturday, building to 2-3ft during the day.
2ft Sunday, building to 2-3ft during the a'noon.
2-3ft Monday, easing a little during the day.
1-2ft Tuesday, easing a little during the day.
2-3ft Wednesday, building a little during the day.
2ft Thursday, easing a little during the day.
1ft Friday.
Ouch! If there are waves tomorrow, they'll HAVE to run.
Worlds best Ben? Or is it more acurate to state, the best of those on tour. Or best of those that want to make surfing a sport. Or maybe the best of those that wrangled a sponsorship deal with one of the once big three....
There's some dam good surfers out there that don't subscribe to the circus.
Ever seen Albert Fox's son ride the barrels of Anga's and Spookys? Or Paul Evans from Scott'sHead lines? Or DKA's from nth steyne backhand?
There are so many unknown surfers around our surfing nation that are the equal to, or better exponants of the art of surfing than many of the monkey's on tour who are labled the world's best buy their sponsor's. Funny that.
I will send stu a photo to show you of DKA's backhand reo's and if you can match it with anyone from the tour I'll buy you dinner and a few bears.
Cheers MM.
MM, I just copied and pasted the ASP's press release. Hence the quotation marks.
By the way, your offer to buy me a few bears is very tempting.
Ha ha. Cool, a few beers it is, win lose or draw.
And we're off! Day 1 is up and running, super clean conditions and set waves in the 3-4ft range.
Ha and Kelly gets it with 15 seconds to go. Looks real fun with West in the swell.
This is a little strange - in just one model run update, the short term outlook (ie today and tomorrow) has moved around a little. The reason this is unusual is because I've been under the impression that once a swell is locked in (ie generated, and travelling towards a location), there's no reason for the individual swell outlook to change (ie there are no driving forces that could alter the size, period or direction of a swell in any major way).
Anyway it's only a minor change, but with the latest data (12Z GFS) our model has 2-3ft building to 3-4ft by lunchtime today (Thursday) - which seems to be on par with what I'm seeing on the webcast. Tomorrow it has 3-4ft early morning, easing to 3ft by lunch and into the a'noon.
No notable changes expected elsewhere in the short term, although it now expects the biggest waves on Sunday to be in the morning (around 5ft) easing to 3-5ft during the day.
Long term, the 12Z model run has also put next Saturday's 6ft swell back on the cards too (with also a building trend Friday to 4ft, but an easing trend Sunday rather than maintaining Saturday's size through the whole weekend).
So, if you had to make a decision right now, would you go with the 00Z run for next weekend (1-2ft) - ie run as much as you can over the next four or five days - or go with the 12Z run for next weekend (6ft) - ie be very flexible over the short term, picking and choosing as the swell pulses, then sit through four lay days ahead of a bang next weekend in supposedly pumping barrels?
or maybe just go with Occy. He just called it - he said its going to be eight foot. According to the guru this swell wasn't even on the models last week. Really missed the occ in the commentary box
Eight feet, when?
Overheard this as well, I think he was talking about that swell coming next weekend. But he was just saying that he hoped it kept growing in size and delivered some solid swell.
Im sure he was referring to this Sunday. They brought up the surfline model to show. Its terrible viewing - a 30 second grab of Nick Carroll paddling a canoe and comments like "getting their rigs out" some standout web moments so far.
Well it's definitely not going to be 8ft this weekend, and yeah some classic filler stuff already!
Well there was definitely some sets bigger than 3-4ft in that last Keiren heat!!!
Yeah Kieren's smoker was a good 5ft.
Looking at the forecast, I'd say they'll try and wrap it all up by Monday their time.
Do you save some cash if you wrap it all up early?
That's a big policy change in just two days Don!
How boring is it at this size....
Bring back Brazil...
Just announced - they're going to push through and run the first four heats of Round 2.
That shows how little confidence the contest directors have in the surf forecast - they're getting as much of the event done as possible. A wise move I reckon.
Mick, re: "Do you save some cash if you wrap it all up early?" A little, but not much. Most of the expenses are based on the expectation that they'll be there the full two weeks.
Another get the rig out call from the box. They were discussing the benefits of being a punter hanging out watching the comp
Dorian "...Teaupoo is a great place watch the surf. You can hang out in your bikini. Its a great place to get the rig out"
Adam "...you mean your fishing pole...?"
Shane "....yeah for sure whatever....?"
not sure what Dorian is trying to do
Fanning has a battle on his hand first heat with these shit waves
No discussion about the surfing? The connest of the year and all is silent.
Contest of the year Neville? Probably not this year.
At the moment it's just business as usual cutting away the fat in crumbly 3-5ft waves through the early rounds. Walshy's 10 pointer was pretty amazing as well as Kieren's late no hand drop and a Freddy P's performance but besides that it's just the norm.
Better than I first thought - I first tuned in when it was light onshore and crumbly but looking at the highlights tonight there were some nice waves in those early heats when it was glassy.....
Looks pretty fun this morning. Jeremy Flores and Brett Simpson just split a perfect peak that could have easily been Pipe/Backdoor.
Walshy's 10 pointer! Holy Shit he was deep
I'm surprised they called this afternoon off? Forecast swell looked the goods? And next weekend is looking the goods if that GFS prognosis comes to fruition!!! Only issue is local winds around this time look dicey!!!
Yeah right, it's really shithouse here. Only 3' yesterday! The pro surfers must have all taken special shrinking pills so they could make it look like it was fucken double overhead and spitting.
Maybe youse best just lay low on the forecast front at this event eh fellas.
I suppose that's why it's called a "prediction" Nick. No-one claims 100% accuracy.
"Maybe youse best just lay low on the forecast front at this event eh fellas."
Woah...bit rich coming from you NC.
I watched live streaming of most of yesterdays comp,
It looked a lot bigger than 3 ft?
Are you TC's brother! captain of the death star, Nick Vader? Lord Vader, Vader of the Lord!
Looked in the 3-5ft range from what I saw - Ben's call seems pretty spot on to me....sure there were bigger ones but you can't call a swell size based on that.
Yeah sorry boys, re-reading that I was a bit harsh there. Struck the wrong tone. God knows it's easy to be off a bit in forecasting anything.
yeah wellymon I answer to those descriptions.
came up last night, a most odd new swell pulse, I guess from that cut-off low to the sth, 4'+ but like a large Australian windswell/sea state type swell. It was fun, like good Narrabeen on a reef, not thrilling or scary like pretty much any groundswell Teahupoo can be. Making some noise on the reef now, I imagine it's gonna be on this morning.
So looking back at our model output, it didn't do particularly well with the initial W/SW swell, but picked up the secondary SW swell (ie yesterday and today) quite well (had ~5ft both days, which is pretty close).
Initially I thought that the Thurs/Fri undercall may have been due to the westerly component in the swell direction - all of our locations are finely tuned direction wise, and this is a little off axis for Teahupoo - however hindcasting the data shows that WW3 initially undercooked the swell (which we don't have much control over).
More importantly, the Thurs/Fri swells showed that Teahupoo performs much better during short range W/SW swells than what I've previously thought. Perhaps that's what was most important - a lower period allowed the swell to not overpower the reef.
Would love to spend a season there and really get this wave dialled from a forecast perspective. Even better would be a wave buoy to verify incoming swells!
well done ace.
Sick one Ace yewwwww
Well, considering the avg forecast, that was a pretty damn enjoyable event.
@NC at least you seen the humour in that one.
Great forecast live stream thru coastal watch,
Even though it wasn't code red at chopes, it was still fucking great surfing to say the least and overall the judges did a great job, I reckon.
Would be hard to judge those rides.
Great viewing.
Yeeew
If any other surfer in the comp would have experienced this sort of troll move from the Tahitian Water Patrol in their round four heat, would they have made the final?
&feature=youtube_gdatasome good wave pics of chopes on the redbull site, for us that have never surfed it, some underwater pics showing just how shallow and gnarly it is, surprised theres not a lot more serious injuries, the bottom looks surprisingly flat and not coral heads.
From the conditions, to the performances, to the coverage and commentary, the Billabong Tahiti Pro was a top shelf event. And Adrian Buchan's consistent performances were as well. No backside rail grabbing like a kneeboarder, Ace done did it right for the goofy footers.
Review the Heats on Demand for proof of this.
Top shelf all the way!
http://www.billabongpro.com/tahiti13/heat-analyzer-gb