The Billabong Pro Tahiti Trials has earnt a reputation of dishing up some of the heaviest competition waves in the world outside of an ASP World Tour event. So what's in store for this year's Trials which kick off this weekend?

The good news is that there's a fun swell on the way. However instead of the predominant south-west direction, this pulse will originate out of the south-southeast.

The classic progression of Southern Ocean frontal systems up along New Zealand's East Coast has been subdued this week linked to an absence of the Long Wave Trough. Instead an upper atmospheric blocking pattern is dominating the South Pacific Ocean with funky cut-off lows being the main source of swell for Tahiti.

One such mid-latitude low is deepening half way between Tahiti and Easter Island, with a fetch of SE gales being aimed nicely up towards French Polynesia.

This should generate a good south-southeast groundswell for Saturday peaking at 4-6ft during the morning ahead of a slight easing trend through the afternoon. The southerly direction will 'soften' the wave somewhat with a more perfect down-the-line shape instead of a heaving barrel into the end bowl. Winds will be fresh out of the east-southeast which is typical for this time of year. Surface conditions may become ruffled at times with the wind coming over the back of the wave but it won't be too detrimental to the surf quality.

The waiting period for the main event begins Thursday week and early indications are that a strong front pushing through the Tasman Sea – initally outside of Tahiti's swell window - will then form a cut-off low east of New Zealand over the weekend. The later stages of this system may produce a moderate west-southwest swell for the start of the waiting period, with no major swells lining up beyond this for the first week.

The chance for a solid swell during the second half of the waiting period hinges on the movement of the Long Wave Trough across Australian longitudes later next week. Confidence is currently not high on any major swell events at this point in time, however we'll update this in a later article. //CRAIG BROKENSHA