Easterly Swell Feast
Following a sporadic start to winter, the whole East Coast is on target for a pumping east swell beginning this Friday.
A broad belt of trade-winds have developed above New Zealand thanks to the interaction between an area of low pressure over the Coral Sea and a strong high pressure system to the south.
Such a synoptic setup is more typical of summer or autumn, and this is reflected in the recent spell of warm weather along the eastern seaboard.
More interestingly, this trade-flow will become supercharged through the middle of the week as a tropical depression develops below New Caledonia and drifts south, while intensifying at the same time. The subsequent tightening of the pressure gradient will develop a band of easterly gales aimed at much of the East Coast. Add in a slow westward movement of this fetch towards the mainland, and we can expect a significant sustained groundswell event for Queensland, New South Wales and Tasmania.
Size wise, most locations between Fraser Island and Eden should see a strong increase by Friday afternoon, peaking around 5-6ft. Some swell magnets in southern New South Wales may see bigger sets approaching 8ft towards dark at the peak of the swell. Surfing conditions should be great all day Friday from the lower Mid-North Coast to the Far South Coast courtesy of a persistent west-northwest wind. North-easterly sea breezes may limit surfing options on the North Coast and SE Queensland after lunch.
Tasmania's East Coast won't see the bulk of the swell arriving until Saturday morning when inconsistent but strong 4-6ft sets should roll into exposed beaches. The rest of the mainland will see a gradual easing trend all weekend with fresh offshore winds for the most part.
While the peak of the swell will be seen on Friday (in NSW and Qld), it will likely be the weekend warriors who will be the biggest winners during this swell event with two full days of great surf expected from dawn Saturday to sundown Sunday.
We'll provide running updates over the coming days in the comments section below. //CRAIG BROKENSHA
Comments
4 days off & an anniversary to celebrate, looks like a long weekend away is on the cards for my beautiful wife, though she will be sharing me with my mistress! Yeewwwww.
No feast coming my way Craig..How's this for bad luck.I've been waiting to surf a relatively unknown spot which will only work on a ne swell with nw winds.You could say I've been waiting for this exact scenario playing out today for a few years now.Two boards and steamer packed in the car and all hyped up I dropped the kids at school and was off.I managed to drive another whole 500m before the car decided to have no clutch.So after pushing it home the diagnosis is the master cylinder has decided there will be no barrels,not tomorrow either as repairs will occur Monday.I hope no one else has this sort of crap luck today on swellnet.
Bummer redsands!
Had a nice little feast this morning at Manly. Bloody hell it's a good beachbreak.
Yeah Ben I got the short straw this time.So I'm just back home working with an extra tab open for swellnet so I can do some afternoon mind surfing.
That is really bad luck, but is the spot so sensitive that you can't wrangle in a mate to take you there? Or bloody hitch-hike on the highway, haha, anything!
I only go it alone or with my one partner in crime but he's working today.I would not call it a complete secret but this place rarely show's what it is capable of.If I asked someone to take me I'd most likely get a response around the lines of "you want me to take you where?" Also the clocks going tick tick towards the 3 o'clock school bell which is on foot.Its going to have to be that cliche which one calls "next time".
Ah well, as you said, there's always next time!
Next time looks like 7 days after the last episode.Any thought's on this Craig and Ben?
Not even close sorry Redsands, going to be a dead south swell and down your way lucky to top 3ft. The American Weather Model has the most potential out of the weather models, but recent updates have pushed it more towards the European version which would only be 2-3ft at south swell magnets Sunday arvo.
Also the weekend was pretty special where I headed, all day offshores and a slowly easing 4-5ft of swell Saturday but not dipping below 3ft even into late yesterday. Magic!
Sydney south seemed to drop rapidly after Friday afternoon's pulse so you didn't miss anything epic it seems.
The reason I was asking is the synoptic charts are showing an intense low which looks to blast winds out from Cook's in NZ later this week?Maybe an ese groundswell early next week? As you can see I'm hanging out :)
Ah yes, I spotted that too, but the fetch will be limited in length and not aimed towards us very well while also being only there for less than a day.
Swells from Cook Strait also take about 2 days to reach us so it would be arriving Monday if there was anything.
Here's the latest model update showing the winds and you can see what I mean: http://i132.photobucket.com/albums/q10/sasurfa1/swellnetgfssnswlargedsfc...
Thanks Craig,I've had a lean winter for waves,more waiting to come.
What will the swell be like for the week after in the byron bay area?
Which period are you looking at Jake?
There's an alright looking ECL forecast for early in the coming week; I looked at GFS and ACCESS, both looking better than the forecast I woulda thought... What's up?
And then yeah like you say, maybe another later in the week...