The first Tropical Cyclone for season 2006/2007 developed around 880km E/SE of the Solomon Islands on Sunday morning. This system is named TC Xavier, and has slowly intensified over the last 12 hours along a west-southwest track at 4 knots. Current barometric pressure is 980hPa, maximum sustained winds are 50kts (gusting to 65kts), and significant wave heights in the region are 19ft. 

At this stage, TC Xavier is expected to intensify over the next two days, before encountering cooler water and increasing shear (shear being the change in wind speed and direction with increasing altitude), both of which will impact its future development. The chart to the right shows current Sea Surface Temperatures in the South Pacific, and the red line depicts the 27°C isotherm. SSTs of 26.5°C are generally regarded as the minimum requirement for TC development, so a Tropical Cyclone tracking south of this line will often have great difficulty maintaining its characteristics.

Additionally, the short term synoptic outlook doesn't favour swell prospects in Qld and NSW from TC Xavier. A strong ridge is building along the Qld coast behind a southerly change, which will focus the primary fetch in the Coral Sea up towards Papua New Guinea. TC Xavier is also located a little too far north to be of great use to us at this stage, with the islands of Vanuatu likely to shadow the SE Qld coastline from any northeast swell that may originate from it.

Seasonal Overview Cyclone activity in the Southern Hemisphere in October, and even November is quite rare, as historical data shows that December often delivers the first cyclone of the season. However, as far as surfers are concerned, there are mixed signals regarding the upcoming cyclone season.

With a weak El Niño persisting across the Pacific, the probability of Tropical Cyclones occurring near the Qld coast has been somewhat reduced. This is due in part to the cooler-than-normal SSTs in the southwestern Pacific (see current SST Anomaly chart below). Additionally, the tradewinds across the South Pacific tend to weaken during an El Niño event, which may have some impact on our non-primary sources of swell in Qld and Northern NSW. 

However, it's not all bad news. Although the chances of Tropical Cyclones occurring near the Qld coast are lower during an El Niño event, their chances are actually higher further east from about 165°E. The eastern swell window for Qld and NSW extends a large distance into the South Pacific, and some of our best swells have occurred from Tropical Cyclones south of Fiji.

Therefore, even though the initial seasonal outlook for surfers may seem a little gloomy (due to the reduced chances of TCs occurring near the coast), there's a very good chance that we'll see a number of good quality swell events from systems located further away from the mainland. We'll update this long-range outlook once we draw a little closer to the start of the cyclone season.