Early Forecast: 2025 Margaret River Pro
Western Australia Margaret River Pro
May 17 - May 27
It feels too soon to move on, what with the Gold Coast Pro comment section still active and the many strands of an intriguing comp still to be teased out.
Yet the circus continues and today we find ourselves five days out from the next contest, which is also one of the most anticipated comps of the year, the Margaret River Pro.
After Burleigh, there's been movement in the Top 5 for the men - notably Jack Robinson dropped four places to seventh - while the women's stay exactly the same: same names, same placings.
The real interest, however, is at the other end of the rankings as Margs is the last comp before the cut.
In the women, only four surfers have mathematically made it (ten women progress after the cut), while five surfers who are currently outside it can very easily qualify. To give an indication, the last of them is Sally Fitzgibbon and she's only 2,000 points off the cut line. Every heat win will count for surfers placed five to fifteen.
In the men, ten surfers have qualified, three surfers are tied on the cut line, and realistically only two surfers below the cut line, Liam O'Brien and George Pittar, have a chance of jumping ahead.
We'll have a more detailed article on the possibilities later in the week.
Southside, Mainbreak, and The Box, plus the mini-city that springs up this time each year.
So, the waves..?
As the big top gets erected at Surfers Point, the dancing bears have much to get excited about. The coming week will be filled with mid-range waves as a powerful low moves across the Southern Ocean, shunted south by a large high pressure system straddling the West Oz coastline. The same high will direct a light offshore/sideshore wind regime all week. An ideal warm up for a critical competition.
By Saturday, which is the first day of the waiting period, the pattern will be coming towards an end: the swell will drop into the 4 foot range and, with the high almost out of the window, the winds will be more north than east - meaning the morning land breeze will be overwhelmed by a northerly breeze. Sunday will be similar yet with a touch less swell.
Depending on what develops at the back end of the waiting period, Saturday and possibly even Sunday could see competition.
The next system of interest is forecast to track further north as it approaches the West Oz coastline. Though wind stengths only reach moderate gales, the wind field is broad - it's effectively a number of storms in procession - which should ensure a long tail in the swell.
At this stage we're looking at an arrival time of Tuesday, though Wednesday is when it fills in, peaking in size at around 6ft+. On both days a morning land breeze will give way to northerlies (yet again!).
The storm that creates Tuesday's swell has only moderate wind strengths but a broad wind field that stretches north of the Kerguelen Islands
Thursday will see a similar wind pattern but on a declining swell, the trend continuing until the next system moves in around Saturday the 24th.
This next system is forecast to herald a shift in wind regime, with stronger, more westerly quadrant winds striking the West Oz coast.
If that trend remains - remember, it's still twelve days out - it'll force the WSL to look for the more settled periods earlier in the waiting period. They won't be huge, and they may have to run a number of half-days, but a general northerly pattern will keep the mornings clean at Mainbreak and will also keep The Box top of mind when scheduling.
Keep track of developments in the comment section below and we'll be back on Friday with a more detailed forecast.
//STU NETTLE
Comments
Is North Point in the mix this year should the swell be big enough?
I know some people don't like the Box, but I'd love to see a day of competition there.
Do their names begin with F- and end with -ilipe?
There's always chat about how Mainbreak is a fairer playing field, offers the opportunity for turns blah blah - I just want to see death or glory pits!
I want to see both!
One day at the Box with careers on the line- would make for some amazing viewing.
Agree - although to my mind North Point gives some of both if they could get a sick day or two there. Still remember Italo's first wave at the box - air drop, head almost cut off slipping under the lip, deep barrel and foam ball spit - now that is viewing.
Pretty sure they missed that live too.
WSL are presently plastering that wave on social media which i took as an endorsement for Box being on the menu next week.
Fingers crossed (sorry Ben)
Looks like Medina is back and Joycey misses out.
@DingOZ Good day! Where ya gettin your info on this? Thanks
I’d be surprised, they’ve had Medina in every comp and then scratched him.
My mistake, jumped the gun. No Medina, but McDonagh, Wilcox and Vincent get wildcards? ...so no Morgs or JW.
wilcox adds extra spice to backhand tube chat we had a while back FR, lets hope either him IF or IG get a heat out the box. wtf is mikey mcdonagh doin over there...out of all crew in form and on topic they pick him lol, blokes a flog out the point and beachies to boot, headnoise city
From what I've seen around town, he's going to have to sort his head out to be able to achieve consistent high level success.
Care to elaborate Andy?
Well I think until he’s more grounded he’ll find it difficult to deal with the pressures of competition and string together results and consistency.
Heaps of hubris there as far as I can tell.
But then again I could be wrong:)
Thanks Andy.
Time will tell hey.
Wilcox has had way too many chances. Give someone fresh a start..... or Julian Wilson
He won the trials mate
I would love to see the ladies out at the box, that would sort the wheat from the chaff.
Unpopular opinion: As a contest venue, I don't like the Box.
I agree mate. Too weird to be going from a slopey right to a short barrel
I like it as a spicy dish thrown into the main meal.
Would love to see the girls out there- that would enable Caity, Molly and Betty-lou to put serious separation between them the other girls.
I love watching heats where there are major discrepancies in skill sets.
Who can do it, and who can't.
See: the 2019 heat between Jack Robinson and Filipe Toledo out there.
Wouldn't want to see the whole comp out there- that would be boring.
Jack seems to be able to select the Box waves that provide a nice roll in takeoff.
Spot on, especially if it's a proper 8-10+foot day there. Doesnt get much more exciting to watch than that.
Long time since they've run a round there but that last time in 2019 was epic.
I still remember Owen’s 10 and Melling’s wipeout…don’t think I could say that about any other event from 2019…
was that the year Jadson hurled himself into multiple massive beatings and the odd make? absolute charger.
The last year before KP stopped making the call / left his role too?
Correct.
That was the last time they ran at the Box- with KP in charge of the call.
We talk about NP and box every year but truth is they don’t even look sideways at it anymore.
Is there a set person who does it now? I seem to hate JMD for the terrible decisions since KP left, but I'm not sure that's right. ChatGPT trained on vanilla, white-washed, corpo AIDS?
One Woz pro endorsed sloppy right is another locals reeling left.
Agree - its good for half a dozen waves and to see a few makes but its normally pretty fickle with long lulls. You get a few really good heats and rest are not so good. Normally because by the time they decide to run it there it takes them half a day to set it up. And then the moment has passed.
granted it's not another slopey right where surfers do pretty much the exact same line and same 3 turns every single wave.. however I think the skills and technique required to ride Box properly is a huge part of the rest of the surfing world and it's great to see the pros approach to it, who has it and it who doesn't!
Plus it's way more entertaining to us spectators, and isn't that the bottom line?
I don't disagree with any of that. I love watching 'em out at the Box.
But as a contest venue, it all becomes a little samey to me after four or five heats.
I dunno, I just quite enjoy Margs Mainbreak as a contest wave when it's solid. Big high performance turns and occasional barrels means there's more strategy at play, whereas a heat at the Box is usually won on local knowledge or luck.
it's samey until you get the one-in-ten hellman or woman charging way harder than the next person and then it's fun to be like 'ah this is how it can be surfed if you're nuts'
I concur with most of that.
I think making the most of what the area has to offer is the best way to go. I get that moving things around is a bit of a head fuck for the WSL, but if they made the comp about the area and not just one particular wave they'd do themselves a lot of favour with surf fans. It's the Margaret River Pro, not the Margaret River Main Break Pro. If Box is cooking, run some heats over there, it's just across the channel, might as well. As far as local knowledge or luck playing into it, why is that a problem? If you're good enough to beat someone on their home ground you're more deserving of the victory, if you get smoked, well bad luck. And isn't Jack pretty much the only one that can claim Local status?
I agree with your points.
I dunno... as I said, it's an unpopular opinion, but I'm just not a fan of The Box as a contest venue.
What’s your take on Chopes Ben?
Love it.
Ha
i tend to agree ben,
yeah big hollow mains is a better comp wave 100% that keg the goat got out there a few years ago was unreal
I love watching the pros out at The Box - similar to watching them at onshore Bells - you get to see how skilled and ahead of the pack they are.
The (above) average punter typically points and shoots - back door take off, choose your line and drive for the channel.
Watch the pros who can closely like in the Jack v's Felipe 2019 heat linked below and you will see mastery that mere mortals struggle to comprehend:
Wave selection
Take off positioning
Timing off bottom
Speed control
Foam ball wrangling and body contortions that go with it
Timing the exit to navigate the pinch
Backhand just adds a whole other dimension of difficulty. Italo is incredible.
So much more than just a short barrel.
Pro tip. They'll run on weekends only and overscore chop hops. Had such hopes for the new era of the WSL, but its the same shit
Weekend 100% start IMO
Bugger - clean 8ft +was the dream
Still a long way out and the Tues/Wed swell has been shifting around a bit. It's still a possibility.
Damn, that map looked alot more promising 3 days ago.
pit call over driver's radio: "Box, Box, Box."
As long as Julian Wilson gets a wildcard i'll be happy.
The SW can be a fickle beast
Just in case anyone missed it.
Here is the heat between Jack and Filipe at the Box.
Crazy to watch Jack just taking 9's off Filipe when he had Priority and didn't want a bar of it.
Sik!
Bring back Barton!
That was epic. I could watch that all day...
Robo 1st barrel 8.5
Filipe 1st barrel 3.3 "Poise of a champion" said Barton Lynch
comments on judging.... crickets chirp & later .....an owl calls
The Box would be great on a consistent day if you could run through an entire round.
Just makes the comp feel super disjointed when they can only run 5 or 6 heats here and there unfortunately.
So when you say 4ft, the WSL and Surfline say 8-10ft faces...
The box is a drop in and pull out wave(boring) main break better for watching comp. Prefer to surf the box though for intensity of take off lol.
Given the Woman’s tour is expanding to 24 next year don’t the top 14 re qualify?
Not absolutely sure but I think they come back at the end of the year. The next few events will only have ten qualifiers, plus two wildcards.
So in reality only one person is actually gonna get cut? (Wild cards pending) The rest just get a long holiday.
Correct.
Takes away a lot of the drama of the womens cut, knowing for most it's just a 10 month holiday.
Agreed but it gives all the girls the opportunity to work on skill sets they might be lacking. Especially the 4 that miss out on the back half of the season. No excuses then next year. I like it because I like the rookies this year getting the chance to stay on tour. Plus even the one surfer that misses out has a better chance of qualification with 7 women getting though form the CS
Main Break will be boring without JJF. WSL needs Julian to bring the eye balls.
My nominated theme track for the Margies Comp:
Country clone zombie zone...?
Hardest cut on a full moon
Paging ....John john florence to the Margaret River pro
Time for a John wildcard me thinks
why not run it at gas over main break or box,
Too hard to get the infrastructure in place.
Mainbreak has been designed as a purpose-built surf contest venue.
If they get a 6-8 foot day run the women at Mains and the men at the Box at the same time. Make better use of the swell to get through heats and way more action.
If the winds stay on track to have a lot of NE, tending N, and with some decent enough swell, the right handers at Southside could also come into play as a possible venue for a day or two. Cleaner than anywhere else in those conditions. And could be very interesting!
All the models are forecasting a big low around the 19th, peaking around 70kn and directly aimed at the SW coast.
If this stays consistent, wed and thurs could be massive at Margs. 4m+ at 17 secs
Winds are also looking good.
Cracking system eh!? That bloody high keeps pushing it further and further south though. Hopefully keeps some west in it's direction because as it stands, it's a long period brute. Different story on the southern ocean side of the cape though.
Every model run is looking better and better and it's consistent over the 4 models(euro, gfs, access and icon)
From my experience of this area it could be 20ft on Wed/Thurs. I doubt the pros would want to surf 20ft mainbreak.
South coast will be huge and offshore
20ft?
Settle down, Kaipo.
If the models stay the same the deep water reefs will be this big.
Things can change fast in the Indian Ocean though. It's still a way out.
Yeah I discussed this in Monday's FC Notes. Long way out but the Indian Ocean is looking quite active which is promising.
wow it's changed heaps again in just 24 hours.
If it stays on track the Heard Island penguins are in for a flogging!
Great North Point swell if it stays on track.
Terrible winds though
Doesn't seem like NP is on the menu as a potential venue.
Box has been mentioned as a potential site.
When I stayed at a Gracetown AirBnB in April they had received a letter from the WSL explaining the logistical impacts and crowd restrictions should the comp run at NP and received tickets to the comp. Seems like WSL are at least keeping their options open.
oh that's interesting
Was it last year or the year before I think more likely and there was a day at the box that fired all day and JJF and his bro Nathan amongst heaps of other out there and they still didn’t move the comp?
With JMD at the helm can't expect the box on the menu........bring back KP.
looking at willy weathers, seems to be no lack of swell and good winds am i wrong?
Anything with a decent amount of N in it sucks. Will be ok if it stays light
I only surfed main break a few times but I thought the left was fun. On a certain size/direction does the left get more high performance?
Watched the left on the cams a few times and it has looked very good. Late drops, barrel and wall - wanted to be out there.
That’s what I’ve seen when out there. Blows my mind the pros don’t go left there esp the goofs
Have not had the pleasure of a WA surf trip so can't comment from the water perspective but gee from the Cam it looks to be a nice wave at times with plenty of scoring potential. Noticed a lot of the boys surfing it are on long equipment.
Really fun wave on a bigger board, but as Stu said, not as steep as the right and no finishing turn.
Swell direction....
Gee, left looks good on the Cam atm. Looks like a CT level surfer could get 3-5 good belts in at least. Few takers out at the Box as well. Fingers crossed for the event window.
It can be steep immediately after takeoff but in general it's slower and has more slope than the right, and perhaps most importantly, there's no opportunity for a finishing move.
At 10' - 12' the left is a better wave/choice - outside barrel section/great first turn section but then it fattens up and runs into the channel unless you get one that stands up on 'Surgeons Table' in which case you get a late finish turn hit.
Check Curren's wave at 36:50:
Although its renowned as a big wave spot, its incredibly challenging above 12'. 20m sections of lip line fall out of the sky.
.
southside cam looks alright , right now for the after work crew over there
Be a Struggle Paddling in this Morning with a 4oz Glass Job and that Offshore Wind.
BYO metal plates
Or one of those sick Webster Desert Storms that we hear so much about.
Andino Bunnings Run for Lead
RE the left. Italo posted a clips getting some nice barrels on the left with one turn. But yeh no finishing manoeuvres so I guess that makes it hard to give a decent score. Maybe if we saw a left tube straight to air
No finishing manoeuvres…would that result in fewer claims??
Forecast starting to look real good!
Hoping they don't run both Sat & Sun now.. maybe Sat but a couple lay days then into the big stuff.. fingers crossed!
pumping over there right now, lots of pros out enjoying it.
I find the right boring unless its big enough for stand up barrells and JJF type turns. The box makes for an entertaining break of monotony.
The left leaves me wishing reef modification existed. Imagine filling that thing in a bit to stand up further inside.
JW could have done the trials there too no? Or are they invite only?
Only twelve surfers in the trials and all from WA.
1 foot at 25 seconds.
Impressive forerunners due to hit next Thursday morning.
Don't think I've ever seen a longer period.
I really hope they keep it at Mainbreak if it gets big. As good as Nth Point is as a wave, and it truly is, but, they talk up Margs as being a big wave, but when it actually gets proper big, and what it's reknowned for, they piss off somewhere else. Would love to see the pros tackle big big Margs for once..
and go left...Heres an idea, simply alter the rules for mainbreak so that the final closeout manoeuvre on the right doesn't get scored so forces an even choice of lefts and rights. I want to see how the natural footers tackle the left on their backhand.
Couldn't agree more. Not to mention it's a serious injury waiting to happen (dont forget JJF busted his knee there one year). Ludicrous they're making their premium assets of the sport force a turn on bone dry closeouts to add an extra 1.5 or 2 points to their rides. Blood sport i guess, but not in any exciting way. Just mindless sacrifical lambs. I reckon best solution is one of their scoring rides has to be a left. Get it early or get it late. Either way, one right and one left to be kept in best 2. It is a peak after all. Should be some cracking lefts too with a bit more W in the spread of swell direction first coupla days.
Ooooo - you have a point SR. Be good to see them at maxing Margs. Be interesting to see how the surfing compares to that older footage above. Remember watching that live on Ch 9 - Pauline Mencer charging.
Robbo today i'm assuming...
Must have been solid if he is on the Arakawa's.
Good pickup @FR.
Yeah swell bulked up again today. Been amazing weather and conditions and a great run of swell last few weeks. Looks like it's gonna keep on keeping on with a bit of extra spice next week. .
High everywhere
We are free for a while... make the most of it
That follow up swell keeps getting projected to push south dammit. First coupla days over weekend look really good though, and maybe might surprise a few. Gonna be proper pumping.
Wonder if there's a possibility to run mens/womens heats at Mains and Box simultaneously on Sat. Broadcast both? Both should be cooking.
Smoking this morning.
is that bombie actually Main Break from a different angle? always get confused with the different bombies/breaks in MR
Nah this is south of Mainbreak (across the channel from Southside, which itself sits immediately to the south of Mainbreak).
ahh ok figured as much.. thanks.. looks like a nice long right, surprised not to see anyone surfing it
Occ. surfed- got a super heavy inside section that is a nightmare to get caught inside on.
Its the Colosseum with hell holdowns and rips to match
one of the few things I remember from the 90's was a bloke that would surf it daily crazy dave he was a drama teacher at margies high school, he was not the average punter though a bit of a loose character
Big Vessel in the Mainbreak Cam
Fishies, they better stay well out to sea this year.....
The lineup just got cleared with a ski plotting around... think they got a visitor!